March 25, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

Elite 8 Picks: Kansas vs. North Carolina

Our March Madness basketball picks are 5-1 ATS and today we setup the Elite 8 game between the No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks and top seeded North Carolina Tar Heels

 

North Carolina has an 18-3 SU record in regional finals, with nine trips to the Final Four since 1988

 

Today’s second game in the NCAA Tournament pits two of the all-time top college basketball teams with Kansas vs. North Carolina in the Midwest final. There is a trip to the Final Four on the line and the winner will face Ohio State, who was too much for Syracuse on Saturday.

 

The sports betting line opened at Kansas -2 and was bet as low as -1 on speculation that North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall might play but the latest reports say that Marshall will not start. Marshall fractured his right wrist in the Round 2 win over Creighton and did not play in Friday’s 73-65 overtime win vs. Ohio.

 

North Carolina has won 12 of its past 13 games straight-up and they are 9-4 ATS during that stretch and still have talent up front with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and leading scoring Harrison Barnes (17.1 PPG) but the knock is that these players have not shown toughness at times. That will be tested against a Kansas team who have won three-straight, holding opponents to 56 points per game.

 

FIRST-HALF SYSTEM

There is playoff/tournament system “live” for this game that has cashed 41 tickets in the past 49 games suggesting a play on the “Under” 66.5 in the first-half:

 

- In neutral court games with a total between 65.5 and 70.5 points, play the first-half “Under” when at least one of the teams has won three-straight games

 

The five-year record for this NCAA Over/Under profile shows 26 overs and 62 unders (70.5-percent) and the average combined score was 64.6 points.

 

NCAA PICKS

NCAA betting on the total has reduced the total to 142 (from 144) but we still see value on that price. Kansas has played 4 overs and 17 unders in its past 21 tournament games and overall, they are 12-21-2 O/U on the season. 15 of those unders came away from home and with the ability to get physical, we think Kansas will slow this tempo down and keep the game below the number.

Pick: Take the Under

 

Check NCAA Odds

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