2012 NFL Picks, Early Odds for Week 1
The complete NFL schedule was released this week and a handful of sportsbooks have added Week 1 lines to their early list of football betting options for 2012. We’ve got the spreads and totals along with a look at marquee matchups and an early Over/Under play worth jumping on right now
The Dallas Cowboys were 1-6 ATS in the final seven games of 2011 and oddsmakers favored them in six of those seven matchups
The combine gave us a look at prospects and the NFL draft starting April 26 will finally put to rest questions of where Andrew Luck (Colts), Robert Griffin III (Redskins) and Matt Kalil (Vikings) will spend the first few years of the pro careers.
What the vast majority of NFL bettors wait for, however, is Week 1 and this year the season starts in New York where the Super Bowl champion Giants (-3.5, O/U 47) host the Dallas Cowboys.
It’s where Tony Romo also watched his disappointing season end Jan. 1, with an ineffective offense that was held scoreless through the first 37 minutes of a must win game, capping the season with a 31-14 loss – their fourth in the team’s final five games.
OPENING DAY NFL BETTING TRENDS
Green Bay (-4.5) won its Thursday night opener 42-34 in 2011, extending the streak to 12-straight years the defending Super Bowl champs have kicked off the campaign with a win.
Week 1 Fact: Since the NFL started opening the season with its Super Bowl champ hosting the party, home teams are 8-0 SU, winning by a 10.0-point average margin of victory
It’s the Year of the Manning, with Peyton and Eli taking up max primetime slots but instead of buying the hook down to -3, our early lean on this game is to the “Over” 47.
Peyton Manning will make his regular season Broncos debut vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers on Week 1, Sunday Night Football
The San Francisco 49ers have a rematch with Detroit lined up for Week 2 in what’s being dubbed the ‘Handshake Bowl’ but first they have a Date with the Green Bay Packers scheduled Sunday, Sept. 9 at Lambeau Field.
Since 1996, the Niners have lost eight-straight road games in Green Bay and they are only 2-5-1 against the spread. Online sportsbooks
currently offer Green Bay as a 6-point favorite but once again, we see early value for this contest on the total.
Green Bay gave up 411.6 yards per game (YPG) in 2012, worst in the league and more than 100 yards above the fifth overall rank of 2010 (309.1 YPG), when the Packers won the Super Bowl. It’s unrealistic to see this team get back to that level in one season but defense will be a major focus of the off-season and at home field, we’ll look for immediate improvement.
Pick: Take the 49ers and Packers “Under” 45 points in Week 1
WEEK 1 ODDS
Here’s a look at the current NFL odds offered at select sports betting sites around the net. File these numbers away as they will likely go through some significant adjustments between now and September.
Totals in Week 1 the past two years have varied by an average of more than 10 points per game compared to the oddsmaker’s estimate and knowing when to pull the trigger can help get you started on the path to a winning season.
Wednesday, September 5
Dallas at New York Giants -3, O/U 47
Sunday, September 9
Atlanta at Kansas City ‘Pick em’, O/U 42
Buffalo at New York Jets -6, O/U 42
Indianapolis at Chicago -9.5, O/U 41
Jacksonville at Minnesota -3, O/U 39
Miami at Houston -6, O/U 44
New England -6.5 at Tennessee, O/U 48.5
Philadelphia -6 at Cleveland, O/U 42
St. Louis at Detroit -9, O/U 47
Washington at New Orleans -10.5, O/U 52
Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay, O/U 47
San Francisco at Green Bay -6, O/U 45
Seattle at Arizona -3, O/U 42
Pittsburgh at Denver -2, O/U 45
Monday, September 10
Cincinnati at Baltimore -7, O/U 40.5
San Diego at Oakland ‘Pick em’, O/U 48
We’ll be posting NFL betting updates and predictions throughout the summer with a host of preseason picks, early season betting tips and Season Win Totals with breakdowns. Visit the EveryEdge sports betting forum daily for baseball picks and NHL playoff analysis from some of the best cappers on the net and follow EveryEdge on Twitter for a head’s up on all our top plays.