By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: Houston Astros -126 at Oakland Athletics +116 Total 8.5
I was out of misery early with yesterday’s selection as the Rockies were down 7–0 before I turned the game on. My overall Every Edge MLB record is still a respectable 24–11–01.
The fourth of July has long since passed but the fireworks have continued when Daniel Mengden has taken the mound this month as the A’s starter has been “lit up.” Mengden has allowed 17 runs in his three July starts pitching a combined 13.3 innings with his most recent outing seeing him get tagged for 6 earned runs in 3.3 innings vs. the Blue Jays.
In all he’s allowed 16 earned runs this month with an ERA of 10.80, WHIP 2.101 with 9 walks vs. 13 strikeouts vs. the Jays, Astros and Pirates. In that loss against Houston, on July 8th at Minute Maid Park, he lasted only 4.7 innings while allowing 6 earned runs
Houston sends Doug Fister to the mound and this will be his fourth start vs. the Athletics this season. In those previous three starts he’s pitched 20.7 innings while allowing only 3 earned runs with a record of 2–1 with one of those wins at Oakland on May 1st, (2–1.) Fister is 7–7 vs. the Athletics with an impressive ERA of 3.14, WHIP 1.266. Fister/Team is 7–3 away from home this season and his ERA is 3.39. He’s also gone 5–1 in his last six away contests allowing 3 or less earned runs in nine of those 10 road starts.
Around the Diamonds
· Oakland is 1–10 and -10.10-units against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season.
· The Astros are 19–14 in day games this season while the Athletics are 15–22.
· The Athletics are 18–29 and -13.70-units vs. the money line after having won four or five of their last six games the last two seasons.
All Systems Go
· Play against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with an on base percentage of .320 or worse when playing against a very good starting American League pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or lower vs. a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or higher in his last 3 starts. This system is 39–09 = 81% the past five seasons.
· Play on American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season and playing against a foe with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or greater in his last 3 starts. This system is 81–32 = 72% the past five seasons.