by Greg Dempson
In this 6:05 ET start the Pirates send Chad Kuhl to the mound, Krul’s 2-6 on the season, ERA of 5.26, WHIP of 1.487. He’s fared better on the road with an ERA of 3.96, WHIP of 1.404. His ERA is 1.64, WHIP of 0.636 in two starts vs. the Phillies allowing 2 runs through 11 innings on 5 hits with only 2 walks vs. 10 strikeouts.
The Phillies start Jeremy Hellickson who is 5-5 with an ERA of 4.48, WHIP of 1.266. In his last three starts Hellickson’s ERA is 2.79, WHIP of 1.035. When facing the Pirates he’s is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.42, WHIP of 0.985 through 17.7 innings while allowing 2 earned runs, (one homer,) while walking 5 vs. 12 strikeouts. On May 19 Hellickson allowed 2 runs on 2 hits through 6 innings.
- Hellickson is 04-16 to the under when the O/U is 8.5 to 10 runs the past two seasons.
- Kuhl is 01-10 vs. the money line vs. poor base running teams that average 0.5 or less Stolen bases per game this season.
- In the second half of the season the past two seasons the Pirates are 23-32 and -17.60-units against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse.
- Hellickson/Phillies are 11-04 and +9.60-units against the money line vs. a NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse the last 2 seasons.
- Pittsburgh is 09-22 to the under and +11.50-units in road games vs. excellent defensive catchers that allow 0.35 stolen bases per game the last three seasons.
- In the second half of the season the past two seasons the Phillies are 07-19 to the under an +11.10-units vs. a NL team with an on base percentage of .325 or worse.
- Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that hit on average at =.255 or lower when playing against an average starting NL pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20 with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.This system is 32-21 = 60.4% the past five seasons.
- My record with wagered on selections at Every Edge is 7-9-2 and -1.76-units.
(I also have a top opinion on the under at 5 runs in the first 5 @ -105.)