CFP Championship – Alabama vs Clemson

NCAA college football trophy

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Alabama -6.5 vs Clemson +6.5 Total 51

If you’ll recall last year’s game, the Tigers got a back door cover with about 12 seconds remaining, losing to the Tide 45–40 in a game that sailed well over the total. So, after a lengthy process of elimination, we are back where it ended last season, number one vs. number two in a rematch. Not only are the two teams the same but the line and over/under is eerily the same as well, as Alabama is currently –6.5 while the total sits at 51 and 50.5.

In last years’ game Alabama could not contain Clemson’s quarterback Watson. The Tigers ran 85 plays for a total of 550 yards. Alabama ran 71 plays of offense for 473 yards. I feel the difference in this game will be the ability of Watson to execute properly and not turn the ball over. If the Tide cannot contain Clemson’s quarterback and keep him inside the pocket, look out, as Watson is elusive and I’m sure you saw what Aaron Rodgers did vs. the Giants yesterday. The longer Watson can extend those precious seconds before he releases the ball, the more time Clemson receivers will have to “get open!”

College Football Season in Review

  • My Bowl selections were 4–1–1 ATS while my regular season selections went 9–4 ATS for a combined record of 13–05–01 = 72% ATS.

Down Periscope and a 1st Half Opinion

  • After allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two consecutive games, (applies to Clemson,) play the UNDER in the first half when the O/U is between 25 to 28 points and they’re playing a team, (applies to playing vs. Alabama,) who allowed 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Dating back to 1993 this system is 15–41 = 73% to the under. I have an Every Edge opinion on the Clemson and Alabama to stay under at 25 points in the first half.

A BONUS Fun Prop Wager

  • The over/under for the longest touchdown is 48.5 yards. There were four drives in last years’ bowl game that featured four touchdowns of OVER 48.5 yards. If you check back a few bowl games you will note this is not as uncommon as you might think! There were three in last years’ game, one in the first quarter, (a 50 yard Derrick Henry touchdown run,) one in the third quarter, (a 53 yard touchdown reception by O. J. Howard,) as well as one in the fourth quarter, (a 51 yard touchdown reception by O. J. Howard.)
  • In the 2015 Bowl game Byron Marshall of the Ducks had a 70 yard touchdown reception.
  • In the 2014 Bowl game, Melvin Ray of Auburn had a 50-yard touchdown reception plus Florida State’s Kermit Whitfield had a 100 yard kick-off return for a touchdown.

Alabama vs Clemson Prop Play

So, the last three BCS Championship Bowl games have seen six touchdowns of more than 48.5 yards. I’ll take this prop bet on over 48.5 yards for an extra large pizza and some brewski’s.

 

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