Pinnacle Odds: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 at Tennessee Volunteers -3 Total 144
By Greg Dempson
Tip time is 6:30 ET at the Thompson-Boling Arena in this SEC clash. Before I go any further I wish I’d be rewarded with just one dollar every time I hear the “Bubble” word as it’s that time of the season! At best I believe perhaps one of these teams might qualify for a wite-in game, but my mindset suggests the NIT, etc.
Tennessee does have some quality wins vs. the likes of Kentucky and Kansas State and they played North Carolina tough on the road but lost by 2 points, (73-71.)
Vandy has won two out of their last three, both at home, and in their last road contest on February 11, they were crushed by a woeful Missouri team, (72-52.)
The Vols just dispatched of those same Tigers by a score of (90-70,) but that was at home and we know how difficut it is to win on the road, especially in a Conference game.
Home and Away
Vandy is 5-8 straight upon the road and 7-6 ATS and in home and road conference contests they are 7-7 straight up and 9-5 ATS.
The Vols are 10-04 straight up and only 6-6 ATS. Earlier this season Tennessee was catching 5.5 points at Vandy and they won straight up, (87-75.)
Conference Call
The Commodores average 71.6 in conference play and allow 70.8. In all non home games they average only 65.8 while allowing 69.8.
The Volunteers are averaging 80.7 PPG at home while allowing an average of 71.8. In all conference games they are scoring on average 75.3 while allowing an average of 74.5 PPG.
My power rating suggests the host should be favored by 5 and the line went from -3 to -3.5 while the total has also been bet up from an opening number of 143 to 144.5. Vandy has put together one quality road win, at Florida and recently they have taken down Iowa State and a team heading in the wrong direction at this juncture of the season, South Carolina.
Over System
From game 16 out and in an game played between two average teams with a + or -points differential of 3.5 points, play the over when the O/U is between 140 to 149.5 points when one of the teams is off a game where they scored 85 or more points, (applies to Tennessee.) This system is 78-37 = 68% to the over the past five seasons.
Every Edge in Review
My College and NBA record is 4-6 ATS.