EPL Picks: Man City, Liverpool or Arsenal. Who’ll miss out on the top four on the final day?

 

By Antony Jordan

The 2016/17 Premier League season comes to a close this Sunday with all 20 sides in action around the UK. There is very little left to play for in the English top flight now as the title and relegation battles have all been decided, but with one of Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal sure to miss out on the top four placings and a spot in the Champions League next season all eyes will be watching these three games.

We preview this trio of the most important games in the EPL this weekend along with all of the day’s other action with online sportsbook Bet365.com to provide you with our final EPL picks of the season.

Watford v Man City: 12.00 – 6.00 – 1.28

The five meetings of these two sides over the last decade have all gone the way of the side sitting third in the table for this match and Man City have won the three meetings in the top flight over the last two seasons with six goals netted and just one goal conceded. They know that victory in this match will prevent Liverpool from taking third spot away from them in the league this season and with their hosts having lost six of their last seven EPL games we can see why the away win is so heavily favoured this Sunday.

City have been beaten only by Chelsea in the league since the middle of January and they’ve not failed to score in their seven away EPL clashes over the last four months also. Watford cannot be relegated and we believe that they will be unable to rediscover their form to scupper their guest’s chances at finishing in the top four this season, so we are backing another comfortable win for Man City against The Hornets in this final day meeting.

Our money is on Man City to lead at half time and win the match (Man City/Man City HT/FT) at odds of 1.72 with Bet365.

Liverpool v Middlesbrough: 1.14 – 9.00 – 23.00

This must win match for Liverpool will now come much easier as their guests on this final day of the EPL season are a team that has already been relegated to the second tier in Middlesbrough. Adding to this is the fact that the home team have suffered just a single loss on home soil since the middle of January and have defeated Tottenham and Arsenal, as well as drawn with champions Chelsea, since that time. Middlesbrough have lost six and drawn two of eight away games during 2017 and have drawn blank in front of goal during seven of these clashes this year.

With all of this added together it is not hard to see why the home side are the big favourites to win this round 38 match, while a comfortable 3-0 win at The Riverside earlier this season coupled with no losing to ‘Boro at Anfield in more than 40 years also adds to the reason for the one-sided match odds. We agree with these odds and we see Liverpool cruising pas the relegated side to secure their top four place in the league.

Back Liverpool to win both halves of football versus Middlesbrough @ 1.80 in the Bet365 Sportsbook!

Arsenal v Everton: 1.40 – 5.25 – 8.00

Of the trio of sides chasing a top four finish Arsenal have the toughest task as they face seventh placed Everton and have to hope that one of the other two sides drops points to steal into the Champions League places for a 20th successive season. Unfortunately for them we see both Man City and Liverpool doing the business in their own games so even if The Gunners triumph it will not be enough to move into fourth place.

However, with Arsenal having found some form at the end of the season as they have taken maximum points in their last four games scoring ten times and conceding just once they are the deserved favourites to win this match. Everton have lost three and drawn four of their last seven away matches, and know that seventh is where they will finish this season so they’ll basically be looking to avoid injury in this game to ensure that they have the full summer to rest up for next season. Both teams are capable of scoring goals though so we are backing goals in this clash along with all three points for the home side.

Our money is on Arsenal to beat Everton AND Both Teams to Score – Yes at odds of 2.60 at Bet365.com.

Chelsea v Sunderland: 1.14 – 9.00 – 23.00

The final game for the sides that have finished first and last in the Premier League this season is against each other and, as the Bet365 odds suggest, this will be one way traffic as the champions aim to end the season on a celebratory note in front of their own fans. Chelsea have won 16 of their 18 EPL home matches this season, while Sunderland have lost 14 of their 18 games on the road in the league so these match odds are correct in predicting a straightforward home win.

Chelsea have netted 13 goals in their last four home matches, while Sunderland have failed to score in six of their eight road trips in 2017 so our money is on a big win for the champions in West London this Sunday.

We are backing Chelsea to beat Sunderland by at least three goals (Chelsea -2) @ 1.83 at Stamford Bridge.

Hull v Tottenham: 6.50 – 4.80 – 1.50

Already relegated Hull welcome second placed Tottenham to the KCOM Stadium for this final day showdown looking for their first goal in four matches, but with the away side recording a stunning 6-1 victory over Leicester on Thursday night despite already knowing that they could not take the title we believe that this match may be beyond the side who play in the second tier next season.

Hull have been good at home in 2017 with just one defeat in ten matches, although that was to bottom of the league Sunderland in their last game in front of their fans, and before that loss they had lost just a single game here since October. However, they face a Tottenham side who have won 11 of their last 12 EPL games and have the league’s top scorer in Harry Kane in their side. Kane moved to the top of the scoring charts on Thursday night with four goals against the outgoing champions and we can see him helping his team to another three point haul in this game with at least one more to ensure his status as top scorer in the EPL this season.

Our best Hull v Tottenham bet is back Tottenham to win by at least two goals (Tottenham -1) at odds of 2.10 with Bet365.

Man United v Crystal Palace: 2.75 – 3.30 – 2.80

Although Manchester United are the slight favourites to win this final home match of the EPL season this Sunday, if they are to do so they will need to complete this task with a very inexperienced side as manager Jose Mourinho has made the decision to rest his key players for the vital Europa League Final on Wednesday. Victory in that match will see them into the Champions League next season while they can go no higher than sixth in the league, so it continues to take precedence over the league.

United have failed to win any of their last five EPL clashes as they have focused on Europe in recent times and this could very well be the key for Crystal Palace to upset the odds and finish the season on a high note. They have already beaten Arsenal at home plus won away at Liverpool and Chelsea since the start of April as well as having won three of their last five away games in the league. With United’s eyes on another prize we are backing the upset at Old Trafford this Sunday.

Our top Man United v Crystal Palace tip is back the away win @ 2.80 in the Bet365 Sportsbook!

Leicester v Bournemouth: 1.95 – 3.75 – 4.00

All that is at stake at The King Power Stadium this Sunday is pride as 11th placed Leicester take on a Bournemouth side one place and two points better off than them and with the last five meetings between these sides averaging a goal a game we are not expecting a thriller for this match. This thought is increased by looking at the injury lists that both teams have for this final game of the season and we are confident that both sides just want this season to finish now so that they can go about planning for the upcoming campaign.

Leicester need to bounce back from the masterclass that Tottenham gave on this ground on Thursday night as they triumphed 6-1 but they may find it difficult against a Cherries side that has won three and drawn one of their last four matches. However, most of those results came at home and Bournemouth have managed just one win away from home in 2017, coming against Sunderland in their last match, and we feel that both of these teams, with all that they have going on, will be happy with a point in this last game of the season.

We are backing this Leicester v Bournemouth game to finish level at odds of 3.75 at Bet365.com.

Swansea v West Brom: 2.05 – 3.60 – 3.80

With Swansea’s third manager of the season Paul Clement having turned the fortunes of the club around to see them safe with a match to spare and having recorded a set of results that would have seen them finish 8th in the table if he’d begun the season the team can now take it easy for this final match of the season. However, Clement has received a manager of the season nomination and he is unlikely to allow his players to rest for a single second. With three wins and a draw in their last four matches as well as just one defeat on home soil since January it is no surprise to see them as the favourites to win this final game of the campaign.

West Brom have already ended the season with six losses in their last eight matches and just one win since the end of February. They have failed to win an away game in 2017 and we cannot see them changing this around on this final day.

Our money is on a home win @ 2.05 in this Swansea v West Brom clash at The Liberty Stadium.

Burnley v West Ham: 2.25 – 3.50 – 3.40

Burnley welcome West Ham to Turf Moor looking to end a four match losing streak to The Hammers and, although their home form has tailed off slightly towards the end of the season with just one win in five, they are the deserved favourites to win this match. Since losing to Swansea on the opening weekend they have only suffered defeats to Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham and Man United on this ground this season to see them secure their spot in the top flight for next season before the final game of the season despite being the favourites to finish bottom of the league.

West Ham were well beaten by Liverpool in their last match and that drew a four game unbeaten stretch to a close and with no win in six on the road, a long injury list and nothing to play for we believe that the away side could struggle in this game.

Our best Burnley v West Ham bet is back the home win at odds of 2.25 with Bet365.

Southampton v Stoke: 1.80 – 3.80 – 4.75

The Bet365 odds for this Southampton versus Stoke clash suggest a home win at St. Mary’s in the final EPL match of the 2016/17 season that we’re looking at and The Potters’ away form adds to this belief that we’re likely to see the home team take all three points. Stoke have failed to win any of their last seven away games, failing to score in six of these, and with them only defeating bottom of the table Sunderland on their travels since the end of November we cannot see them getting anything from this match.

However, despite being eighth in the table Southampton have failed to score in any of their last four home games and have won just once since January in their south coast home. However, if either of these sides are to win the match we see it being the home side as they have won one and drawn one of their last two, but we see few goals being the value bet on this match.

Back Under 2.5 goals to be scored in this Southampton v Stoke match @ 2.07 at Bet365.com

EPL Picks:

Our final trio of favourite EPL picks for this season that we’ll certainly be backing in this final weekend are as follows:

  • Swansea to beat West Brom @ 2.05 – The Swans have ended the season in excellent form, especially at home, and West Brom have long ended the season. This match will only go one way.
  • Crystal Palace to win at Manchester United @ 2.80 – Palace have beaten some of the biggest names in the league in recent times and with United having an eye on the Europa League final during the week an upset is on the cards at Old Trafford.
  • Tottenham to win by at least two goals at Hull @ 2.10 – Tottenham showed during the week how excellent they are even when they have nothing to play for. Hull are relegated and will not be able to withstand a Tottenham onslaught so we see plenty of goals and an easy win for the visitors in this one.