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by Greg Dempson
And now there is but one Manning standing. If someone had asked me which of the Manning brothers would be making a Conference Final appearance, I would have said Peyton. Such is not the case as Eli's coming north to the Frozen Tundra" more appropriate known as Lambeau Field.
In somewhat of an oddity these final four met on identical weekends as Green Bay played at the Meadowlands in a Sunday afternoon game while the Chargers were the Sunday night visitors to Foxboro vs. the Patriots in week two. The Giants were soundly defeated 35 - 13 by the Packers while the Patriots throttled the Chargers 38 - 14. Teams that play in the Conference Finals (the Packers and Patriots) that defeated the same foes (the Giants and Chargers) in a regular season non division game by more than 10 points are 5 - 2 - 1 ATS since 1980. As of this writing the Packers are holding firm at - 7 while the Patriots line has dropped from - 15½ to - 14 points. Due to less than perfect field conditions the totals are also dropping, the Green Bay/NY Giants total opened at 43½ and has dipped to 40½ while the Patriots have slid from 51 down to the key number of 47 and 46½ points.
Packers Playoff History and Home Field Advantage.
Since 1961 the Green Bay Packers have been a home favorite of 6 or less points exactly six times, when laying 6 or less in home playoff game they are 5 - 0 - 1 ATS.
What have you Done For me Lately?
Here is a Conference Finals system that was real strong from 1977 until 1992 going 13 - 02 or 86.7% ATS. Along came parity and free agency and since 1993 the same system has barely broke even with a 07 - 06 ATS record. The subsets of the system are noted below and the system is live in both games this Sunday when playing against both underdogs.
Play against a Conference Final underdog that won st. up by 3 or more points as an underdog in their previous playoff game.
N/P = the line was not provided be me, wait for my NFL Playoff Point Spread History Book.
The first score is the Conference Semi-Finals result while the second score is the Conference Finals result.
1977, MIN +N/P @ RAM. won 17-09. MIN + N/P @ DAL lost ATS 23-06.
1978, OIL +N/P @ NE won 31-14. OIL + N/P @ PIT lost ATS 34 - 05.
1979, TB + N/P H PHI won 24-17. TB + N/P H RAM lost ATS 09-00.
1979, OIL +N/P @ SD won 17-14. OIL + N/P @ PIT lost ATS 27-13.
1981, SD + N/P @ MIA won 41-38 (OT). SD + N/P @ CIN lost ATS 27-07.
1982, JET + N/P @ OAK won 17-14. JET + N/P @ MIA lost ATS 14-00.
1983, SEA +N/P @ MIA won 27-20. SEA + N/P @ OAK lost ATS 30-14.
1984, PIT +5 @ DEN won 24-17. PIT +9½ @ MIA lost ATS 45-28.
1984, CHI. +7 @ WAS won 23-19. CHI +9 @ SF 49ers lost ATS 23-00.
1985, NE +5½ @ OAK won 27-20. NE + 4½ @ MIA won ATS 31-14.
1986, WAS +7 @ CHI won 27-13. WAS +7 @ GIA lost ATS 17-00.
1987, MIN +11 @SF 49ers won 36-24. MIN +3 @ WAS lost ATS 17-10.
1989, RAM +3 @ GIA won 19-13 (OT.) RAM +7 @ SF 49ers lost ATS 30-03.
1991, DET +1 H DAL won ATS 38-06. DET +13½ @ WAS lost ATS 41-10.
1992, BUF +1½ @ PIT won 24-03. BUF +1 @ MIA won ATS 24-03.
1993, KC +7 @ HOU won 28 - 20. KC +3 @ BUF lost ATS 30-13.
1995, GB +10 @ SF 49ers won 27-17. GB +8½ @ DAL lost ATS 38-27.
1995, IND +10½ @ KC won 10-07. IND +11½ lost st. up & won ATS 16-20.
1996, JAX +14 @ DEN won 30-27. JAX +7 @ NE lost ATS 20-06.
1996, CAR +3 H DAL won 26-17. CAR +12 @ GB lost ATS 30-13.
1999, TEN +6 @ IND won 19-16. TEN +7 @ JAX won st. up & ATS 33-14.
2000, BAL +6 @ Ten won 24-10. BAL +6½ @ OAK won st. up & ATS 16-03.
2001, PHI +3 @ CHI won 33-19. PHI +11 @ RAM lost st. up & won ATS 24-29.
2003, CAR +7 @ RAM won 29-23 (2 OT.) CAR +4 @ PHI won ATS 14-03.
2003, IND +3 @ KC won 38-31. IND +3 @ NE lost ATS 24-14.
2005, PIT +10 @ IND won 21-18. PIT +3 @ DEN won ATS 34-17.
2005, CAR +3 @ CHI won 29-21. CAR +3½ @ SEA lost ATS 34-14.
2006, NE +4 @ SD won 24-21. NE +3½ @ IND lost ATS 38-34.
2007, GIA +7 @ DAL won 21-17. GIA +7 @ GB.
2007, SD +10 @ IND won 28-24. SD + 15/+13½ @ NE.
A. 20-08 = 71% ATS. (13-02 ATS from 1977 until 1992 but only 07-06 ATS since 1993.)
B. 13-04 = 76% ATS if the dog won st. up by 7 or more points in the Conf. Semi-Finals.
C. 15-05 = 75% ATS if the dog won st. up by more than 3 points in the Conf. Semi-Finals.
D. 12-03 = 75% ATS when playing against Conf. Final dogs of +7 or more points.
The "C" portion of the subset in the system is "live" when playing against the Giants and Chargers.
Not So Super After the Fact, (A Conference Final "Super" Letdown.
Last week the Chargers knocked off the defending Super Bowl Champion Colts. Teams that play their next playoff game after this underdog upset victory are 00 - 09 ATS since 1982 in their next Playoff game, (excluding the Super Bowl.)
Last Week in Review.
My selection on the Patriots/Jaguars sailing over 48 points was a winner. My Every Edge record (with all selections being NFL recommendations,) is now 14 - 6 - 1 = 70% ATS.
This Week's Selection.
I have wagered on all my Every Edge selections that I've posted in my column this season. I've wagered on these games from a low of a nickel to a maximum of 10 dimes, (the Bucs home vs. the Redskins.)
For this Conference final wager I risked a nickel, so I'm not gong overboard this Sunday. When the line opened on the Packers game at - 7, Green Bay was - 7 and +1.08. I bought the Packers down to - 6 points and am backing the home team. Manning will have a tougher time in the cold weather than Favre plus Green Bay is the healthier of the two squads. Green Bay has taken care of the ball better as they are +6 at home while the Giants are - 5 when on the road.
A closer look shows the Giants had but 57 yards of offense in the second half vs. Dallas and were out gained 115 - 57 plus Dallas had 9 second half first downs vs. 4 for the Giants. Turnovers and dropped balls did Dallas in. This will be the 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Giants and they have more miles on them than Heidi Fleiss' working girls. Factor in another playoff system that's 14 - 1 ATS when playing on Green Bay has me wagering on the Packers.
I took Green Bay at - 6, it's sitting at -7 now, so good luck with the Pack at -7.
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