By Pat Archibald

There are a lot of ways to handicap a football game or any other sporting event for that matter. Each to their own but I do see a lot of mechanical processes that take place. You know, team A always plays well in this spot versus team B that struggles in this situation. Certainly that information is useful but systems and trends are sometimes misleading and only tell part of the story.

If you contrast the mechanical versus strictly gut calls there is no comparison. Gut calls will eventually bury a bettor as generally the gut is influenced by only one thing. Last week’s games. And that is probably the least important event when it comes to selecting a winner of two teams that are very often quite equal in talent. Well, outside of New England of course. But I suspect that most experienced cappers do not believe that the overall talent level is that disparate. When you factor the line into the game most teams end up around .500. Equality, when adjusted by some points, is generally present.

Statistical comparisons are useful as well. If you get a good statistical match-up that is also supported by a system or long standing trend then the pick may have strong merit. However, long-time handicappers will often recognize another element involved. It is not talked about much but it is there. It is somewhat intangible. It is fleeting at times. Nevertheless it is abstractly real. I’m talking about “The Feel”.

I wrote about this area a number of years ago but would like to revisit it. It is a tool that is hard to pinpoint but I believe we are wise to pay attention to it when it occurs. The Feel has no official definition but I’ll try to outline my take on it. It is not to be confused with the gut call as those generally occur as soon as we see a match-up. We look at the board and a game immediately looks like easy pickings. The Feel only occurs after our work is done. And it only occurs periodically. The game has been analyzed from system, trend, statistical and emotional components. The choice is made. Occasionally something slides in to either sway us off the pick or confirm it. It doesn’t come from forum boards, writings or verbiage specifically. Generally it comes after some quiet reflection on the selection, perhaps from some sense of osmosis. The choice just does not feel right. In fact I generally find that The Feel more often comes into play to warn me off a play rather than to confirm one. But that could just be me. Over the years when I get this sense I drop the game like a hunka, hunka burnin’ lead. Every once in awhile it’ll appear in a selected game and allow me to rise up from the usual one unit ante. That seems to occur more often in the golden handicapping treasure that is the CFL. But it is important to accept that The Feel can only be trusted with fully analyzed and handicapped games rather than a last minute whimsy.

A recent example stands out for me. I handicapped the recent Tennessee at Denver Monday Nighter and settled on the Titans in a non published pick. I liked their toughness, their defense and the ability to run the ball, an area that has bedeviled the Broncos all year. I put in my play for that one along with my other NFL selections on Saturday as is generally my routine. Later that day I was out ambling about, having a beer, strolling, musing, watching the day turn dark. That particular game was on my mind. The Titans just did not “feel” right. It was very clear. Perhaps it was quiet images of Denver at home, the recent opening of Denver’s playbook and the visual maturation of Jay Cutler. Osmosis. But it was unmistakably “The Feel”. It was strong enough to buy back the wager and treat the loss of juice as a victory. Very often a no play is a victory. I generally will not reverse my field totally and up the wager on the other side. I find that activity is somewhat crazy-making.

I don’t really want to scrape at this sense too much. Superstition perhaps, or realizing that trying to siphon off a slice of a rainbow is not the way to go. But it is an intangible that is almost within grasp. It is close enough, at least, for me to pay serious attention to it when it swings by and taps my mental shoulder.

See you next week.

Pat’s picks

Last week:

Well…. speaking of feel…..That felt really bad. Going 0-2 is awful regardless of how you slice it, but that St. Louis loss was hard to swallow. Bad beats hurt and certainly overshadow lucky victories. But whining doesn’t help and there were a several tough losses out there for a few. Denver backers were licking their bad beat sore spots along with those on Arizona I presume. With any measurement it was an interesting week with Philly almost pulling out the improbable. That was a great game overall, one of the best all season. Perhaps, it sheds a little proof that New England has a few soft spots. It starts with a mindset of no fear. Certainly teams have appeared to be terrified of the Pats so far, save Indy and these Eagles. We’ll see if that helps others to prepare. I also tuned into the Grey Cup as always and while it was a bit ragged it was hard fought and close. It’s interesting to see the game as compared to the Super Bowl. Canada’s championship has a “fans and players” first feel to it whereas the US version has much more of a corporate approach. I certainly would not miss either affair regardless of their slant, that’s for sure.

Green Bay at Dallas

This is a big test for Green Bay. I personally feel that they have overachieved somewhat and this is a step up in class. Dallas has the better overall offensive squad both in running the ball and downfield in the passing game. Defensively the Packers may be slightly stronger but not enough to make the difference.  Dallas is home for two versus the Pack's double away situation. Green Bay has some injuries to contend with and that will hurt them as their depth is questionable.

I'll take Dallas and lay the 6.5

New York Giants at Chicago

The Giants have lost two of their past three and the injuries are adding up. Their most recent win was a lack-lustre effort in Detroit where they got by with less than stellar performance. In fact they have not played well since before their trip to England more than a month ago. Historically they swoon in the second half and they could well be in one now. Chicago got lucky last week in their win but they got it done and it was very reminiscent of several wins last season. Remaining at home for their second in a row is always a benefit. This is the season for the Bears in many ways. Lose this and there is virtually no shot at a Wild Card. I don’t put any great significance to that other than I’m sure they will put out a solid effort.

Last week; 0-2

Season 9-9-2

*******************

This column is sponsored by 5 Dimes Sportsbook. 5 Dimes is one of the most respected online sportsbooks in the industry. Check them out for reduced juice, great customer service and an amazing selection of wagering options.

5 Dimes Sportsbook