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Sitting around the
office talking about - what else - March Madness (joining the
millions of others who are dragging down workplace productivity
during this time). The office chatter has been almost exclusively
focused on the tournament lineup, seedings, matchups, pointspreads,
future odds and our brackets. I love the Super Bowl, but for me, it
doesn’t even come close to this. Three or fours hours of
football and a killer hangover vs. three weeks of virtually unlimited
betting opportunities on dozens of games…no contest.
For
what it’s worth, I have Louisville as my “sort-of”
surprise team to land in the Final Four and then who knows what
happens from there (yes I’m aware they have to beat North
Carolina in the Elite Eight Round to get there). So I’ve got a
few dollars down on them at 12-1 (at SPORTSBETTING.COM).
As well I think
Wisconsin has a real shot at going deep into this tourney, and at
30-1 odds to win it all, they were worth a few dollars of my bankroll
as well. I also grabbed a piece of the 10-1 odds for them to win the
MidWest Regional.
The Badgers still play
that same swing offense they’ve been going with for years, but
this year, they have the pieces that can make this a very difficult
lineup to handle. They have balance and can score from anywhere on
the court, with any of the five starters able to hit the shots when
they get a look.
Here’s a quick
tip that has served me relatively well over the years, both in
picking ATS winners and when filling out my bracket – respect
teams that won their way into the tournament.
I always give an extra
long look at teams that secured an “Automatic Bid” when
they’re matched up against an “At Large” team. I
don’t care what conference you came out of, that team won the
conference tourney, which means they were good enough to grab the
coveted automatic spot in the Big Dance.
When you see early
round upsets, very often it comes from a matchup like this. And for
sports bettors, pay attention to an “Automatic Bid”
pointspread dog vs. the “At Large” team. There is money
to be made taking the points in those battles.
Here are a few more
notes to keep in mind when you’re filling out your bracket:
- Don’t expect a
16-seed to upset the apple cart in round one – it won’t
happen. Since 1985, when the tournament went to the 64-team format,
16 seeds have a winning percentage of .000. Translation: a 16-seed
has never won a tournament game (they’re 0-88). Portland State
and friends aren’t going to be the first.
That said, it doesn’t
mean there aren’t opportunities to bet #16’s against the
spread. Looking back over the last 40 meetings of #1 vs. #16 the
lower seed has covered almost 50% of the time (19 for 21 covers).
- Did you fill out
your bracket like I did when I was a high school junior and senior?
If you did then you have Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis in
the Final Four.
It might seem logical
to walk through your bracket having each of the top seeds winning
their way to San Antonio for a monumental battle of the #1s…but
history is against you.
Since the change in the
tourney structure to 64 teams, the four #1s have never met up in the
Final Four.
- But still respect
the #1 seeds as they have been represented in the Championship game
20 times in the last 23 years. Last year two #1s met, as Florida beat
Ohio State.
- There’s been a
lot of talk about Georgia and their improbable ride to the
tournament, but I remember reading somewhere that only two teams with
13 or more losses have ever made it to the Final Four. So if you’ve
fallen in love with Georgia, make sure it’s a quick crush and
you’re over them fairly early, as their 16 losses have the bell
tolling for thee.
-
The one side play I’ve put in so far is Davidson -2 over
Gonzaga (placed at SPORTSBETTING.COM).
Good luck with your
brackets and opening round wagers. I’ll be back next week to
look ahead to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.
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