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By Pat Archibald
We are entering the time of year where two phrases start to dominate handicapping discussions. "Must win" and "Nothing to play for." Some teams are battling for their playoff lives while others are locked into a losing season. When such labeled teams are matched up these two descriptors will be flying about like moths to a light. Heck I'll use them too. But it is best to tread gently and not base the total handicapping tasks on these obvious sentiments. Sort of like skating on the river. Just because your nose is cold and it looks like a frozen pond doesn't mean that it REALLY is frozen.
I can't begin to add up the losses that I have incurred over the years when I've put too much weight on these two qualifiers. For the most part, I believe now that the NFL is such a serious business that every game is virtually a must win situation. Each team has 16 stand-alone platforms in which to salvage their season or careers in many situations. Every once in a while we may believe that a team has "quit" for the year. Very rarely does this actually happen. Squads may implode and play terribly and that can be observed and is certainly a situation that can be handicapped. But I'm very wary of writing off a crew simply because they are out of the race. Conversely teams in must win scenarios, especially if they are inconsistent to begin with, can buckle under their own pressure. So I generally try not to get too wrapped up in these sentiments too much and will attempt to just treat the final quarter of the season much like any other part. Just with more eggnog.
If we look at last year there were many squads who had nothing to play for but stood up and played their best ball of the season. Houston won their last two, San Francisco counted wins against Denver and Seattle in their wind-ups and Green Bay won four consecutive games to close up their campaign to propel them into their recent success. Certainly Denver had two must wins to finish their playoff drive with home games against Cincinnati and San Fran. They squeaked out a win but no cover against the Bengals and lost SU to the 49ers when favored by 10. Dallas certainly could've used their final home game against Detroit. Favored by 14 they were a walk to the bank but somehow took a detour and lost the affair by eight. Last year was not unusual and teams drop "must-wins" all the time. They are seemingly more dramatic at the end of the season to be sure.
There are a couple of scenarios that I look for as the season winds down. Teams that are guaranteed a playoff berth tend not to get really excited about improving their playoff seeding. By that I mean the upcoming game may seem more important to us than to them. If that squad is going against a non playoff team and is favored then I will consider a play on the dog. If that dog has a natural rivalry with the superior group then my interest gets warmer. Games that could fit those criteria in week 16 are Houston at Indy and perhaps Green Bay at Chicago. Both Houston and Chicago should be very focused on playing well against their playoff bound rivals. In the final week of play Oakland at home may be a good dog play against San Diego and Washington would love a solid outing against Dallas. Again these plays are interesting to me if the underdog is out of the playoffs and the other is solidly in the post season and is playing mainly for positioning. As I say often teams are just a bit too self satisfied with getting to the dance and where they line up just doesn't seem to hold as much sway.
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I'm not really a huge hockey fan. As a Canadian that's almost a sacrilegious admission. But I am a fan of hockey players and how they conduct themselves with respect to media and fans. They generally are humble, honest and gracious. These qualities were never more apparent last weekend when Sidney Crosby was the story in Pittsburgh's Western Canada swing. He is really symbolic of how young athletes should carry themselves. But he's not alone as I'm continually impressed with the ambassadors of this sport. They put the other sports' stars to shame in many ways. And while we are at it Kelly Hrudey has to be at the very top of the heap as far as hosts, commentators or color guys in all of sports. He is very incisive, and is....well....such a nice guy. I guess the hockey fraternities learn these traits from the many years of early morning rinks with the parents swilling bad coffee in Styrofoam cups. Hard to be cocky at 20 below eh?
See you next week.
Pat's Picks:
Last week:
San Diego picked a fine time to stage their only 4th quarter 14 point comeback in history. Tough beat. But that said that was a great old fashion head banging game. I do not ever remember seeing San Diego play that tough. I thought I was home and cooled on that one but the Chargers seem to find another gear while the Titans tired. It was a very interesting game. Painful but interesting. Certainly more interesting than the San Fran loss to Minnesota to send me spiraling.
Denver at Houston
Houston is coming off a big win against Tampa Bay last week and they suffered a few more injuries. This is a beat up squad albeit playing with a lot of heart. Playing Tampa takes a toll on teams and that has been the case for some time. Historically, since 1990, teams have gone 62-78 when at home after Tampa and this year only 4 teams have won after the Bucs. Denver is wildly erratic but they are the healthier team on a short week. They do have to travel but I feel they can prevail here.
I'll take Denver with the small points.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
In many ways the Jaguars are more like the Steelers than are these Pittsburghers. They pound, do not make mistakes and play murderous defense. Perhaps that is why they have played them so tough over the past 5 meetings with three outright wins and two losses of less than three points. They've beaten the Steelers in Heinz field the last two years and some may feel that revenge may play into the Steelers mindset. Perhaps but I am more inclined to think that this is the last team they want to see after having their bubble severely pricked last week in New England. It will be interesting to see if their confidence has eroded somewhat after that loss, as so many other squads have suffered the week after getting beaten soundly by the best. The Steelers have not lost at home this season but their schedule arguably has been soft. This Jax team is definitely not soft.
I'll take Jacksonville as a very live dog with four points.
Last week: 0-2
Season; 10-12-2
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