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Remember back to that
period from the mid-80s to the mid-90s, when it was the AFC that served up a
sacrificial lamb every year in the Super Bowl. Those were the days of the San
Francisco 49ers, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. And on the other side,
meekly showing up on Super Bowl Sunday we had the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills
and even the New England Patriots (who lost twice in that 10 to 12 year span by
double digits).
As Mr. Dylan once so
poignantly wrote, ‘The times, they are a changing...", in fact, the change took
place several years ago, "the times, they have changed:" is more apropos. No
longer do we see NFC teams strike fear into the AFC side of the league. The NFC
is now the defacto weak sister, and for proof you need look no further than the
fact they have been the underdog in the last five straight Super Bowl matchups,
and almost assuredly will be again this year.
Right now, at SPORTSBETTING.COM they have the Super
Bowl line set with the AFC rep as an 11-point favorite and bettors are showing
no reservations about laying the double digit points - 85% of all the volume on
this betting option is being written on the AFC side. It's clear the betting
public feels the New England Patriots (or maybe perhaps the Indy Colts) will
have little trouble disposing of whoever makes their way through the NFC side.
The Over/Under on the
Super Bowl is set at 55, again largely based on the fact the Patriots are the
highest scoring team in the history of the league.
NFL Wild-Card Games
Looking at this
weekend's NFL Wild-Card matchups, bettors are stepping up early to back a pair
of underdogs, both on the NFC side.
They are seeing value
in the Washington Redskins as a 3.5-point road dog in their game vs. the
Seahawks, with 62% of the action on the visitor. Seattle hosted a playoff game
last year, but failed to cover the number as a 2-point favorite vs. Dallas
(although they did win the game straight up, thank you very much Mr. Romo).
Two years ago the
Hawks covered the number in both home playoff games. Worth noting is that
Seattle has a record of 1 over and 4 unders in their last five home playoff
games and Washington has three straight unders in their last three road playoff
games.
The other NFC underdog
getting most of the action is the New York Giants. SPORTSBETTING.COM players
are filling out Giant tickets at a 59% clip, as they like them to cover the 2.5
points at Tampa Bay.
On the AFC side,
bettors are lining up behind both favorites, with Jacksonville receiving the
most attention. The Jaguars are seeing 70% of the volume as a road favorite at
Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS in their last three road playoff games. However,
the Steelers have not been a profitable team to back on home field in the
playoffs as of late, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven starts on home field in
the playoffs.
The San Diego Chargers
are the biggest favorite of the weekend, currently sitting at -9 at SPORTSBETTING.COM in their matchup
with Tennessee. Bettors still like the home side, despite the relatively large
pointspread, as they are seeing 61% of the wagering volume. The Chargers will
be eager to erase the stench that still hangs over them after last year's home
playoff loss, and game they had in the bag until giving it away to the Patriots
in an awful display of how to properly close out a game.
Of the eight teams
playing this weekend, the one with the best odds to win the Super Bowl,
according to the current numbers at SPORTSBETTING.COM,
is the San Diego Chargers at 10-1. Not surprisingly the New England Patriots
are at the top of the list, with odds of 5-9.
The Titans are the
longest shot, sitting at 100-1.
Enjoy all the action.
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