SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2007
CAROLINA PANTHERS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -10.5
Over/Under: 37.5
After last week's lose at Indy, the Jaguars are focused on a Wild-Card playoff berth, which they should secure. But they do need to win these games down the stretch. With David Garrard healthy, the offense has a balance that is difficult to contain. They'll come after this Panther defense with their two-back attack, and a capable passing game. The Panther D is playing well, but with their offense in shambles, it is going to be a tough day for them, as they'll likely have to defend a shortfield much of the day, and spend way too much time on the field.
This is a lot of points to lay, particularly facing a Panthers team that has demonstrated they can cover and win on the road. But we don't see the Panther offense being able to move the ball with any consistency and they'll really struggle to keep up. We'll buy the half point to -10 and take Jacksonville.
Take the Jaguars.
DALLAS COWBOYS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
DETROIT LIONS
Line: Cowboys -10.5
Over/Under: 51.5
The Lions are in "do or die" mode in terms of the playoffs. A loss here and they are basically out of the post-season race. It's a pretty disappointing position for them to be in considering four weeks ago they were sitting at 6-2 and the playoffs seemed to be a highly likely scenario. The offense has sputtered lately and they'll certainly miss receiver Roy Williams (ankle). But QB Kitna and the passing game should still have a decent day vs. a Dallas secondary that is the weak spot on their team. But they do need to protect Kitna to allow him to get the ball to his receivers.
The same can be said for the Cowboys, as they should be able to move the ball vs. the Detroit defense.
The Cowboys should win this game, but we aren't comfortable laying the 10.5 with them in this spot. They are coming off a much-hyped battle with Green Bay last week, are the clear leaders in the NFC after winning that game, and have a home date with divisional rival Philadelphia up next week. We don't think we're going to see the Cowboys at the top of their game...they don't need to be to beat this Detroit team, but the Lions can give them a run if they manage the game properly. We'll take the points with the home side.
Take Detroit.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -7
Over/Under: 35.5
Two rookie QBs playing in a cold, blustery stadium...it should be interesting. The Bills have to book this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, as they are only one game back in the Wild-Card race. Miami is also desperate for a win, but it has nothing to do with a playoff spot. They need to wash away the big goose egg in the Win column in the standings. It could happen here, but chances are it won't. This Dolphin team was awful last week at home vs. the Jets and we don't see them putting forth the type of game needed to beat a hungry Bill team at home. The Buffalo O-line will win their battles, setting the tempo for the entire game. The Bills should be able to sustain drives (something they have struggled with), churn yards on the ground (with or without Lynch, who is questionable for this one) and have success with play-action.
We like the Bills to win, and while laying a TD is not appealing, we think they have a better chance of covering than the road side.
Take Buffalo.
NEW YORK GIANTS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Giants -3
Over/Under: 42
The Giants will get to the Philly QB in this one (McNabb should get the start), like they did last time these two met. We do expect the Eagles to make adjustments to try and slow the rush, setting up max protection schemes, but these adjustments limit the offense in other areas. Westbrook is always going to be a challenge to contain and we expect him to get his yards, but he along won't be enough. Yes, the New York secondary is a patchwork group, but their overall defense will be up for the task at hand, or lack thereof, that the Eagles bring. On the other side of the ball, look for Manning to do just enough to give his team the win (and more importantly, not be the reason they lose). We don't foresee a good game from the inconsistent Giant pivot, but we do feel that the entire offense will grind away, getting the tough yards and making a few big plays.
Play on the road dog.
Take the Giants
OAKLAND RAIDERS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Raiders -10.5
Over/Under: 40
QB Brett Favre is still hurting, but he'll start. Whether he finishes or not is a big question mark. However, Aaron Rodgers showed he can play in his back-up duty vs. the Cowboys. The Raiders running game has been productive, featuring big games from Justin Fargas. They need those yards on the ground, as their passing game is one of the weakest in the league.
The Raiders are coming off a huge win (for them) vs. Denver last Sunday, so there could be some concern about a letdown situation here, but all reports out of Oakland are that the team has been very committed to prepping all week and are looking forward to heading into Lambeau and playing a tough game, trying to establish the run and being aggressive on defense. The Packers are a better team, but they'll face a very game AFC team in this matchup. We don't expect to see the Pack lose their second game in a row, but we think Oakland can keep this one close enough to cover the big spread. They should be able to have some success moving the chains, grinding the clock and getting their points. The defense will not be overmatched by Green Bay's attack.
Of course, this being Oakland they could also end up with 130 yards in penalties and four turnovers...but hey, we'll take our chances with the big road dog.
Take Oakland.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -10.5
Over/Under: 47.5
The talk of a "blueprint" on how to beat the Patriots after back-to-back close calls is somewhat overblown. The talk is that an aggressive defense, one that gets after the QB, while having corners who can jam receivers will disrupt the offense...and a smash-mouth running game will reduce the Pat defense to a pedestrian crew. The truth is that is a blueprint to beat virtually every team. Both the Eagles and Ravens have defenses that love to apply pressure and we have seen Brady getting some heat for the first time this season. The Steelers, with Dick Lebeau putting together exotic blitz packages, are similar to Philly and Baltimore in how they go after the QB. That said, we're not sure this Steeler team has the full package needed to get the job done. Plus, they are playing on the road, where they haven't looked good this year. We don't think the New England offense is going to struggle to reach 30-plus points in this test.
The Steeler offense will try and establish the run, but their O-line hasn't been that impressive when facing above-average competition. They're going to find it difficult to win the battles along the line, which will stall this Pittsburgh offense most of the day.
We're laying the big points on New England at home, facing a Steeler unit that has struggled on the road.
Take New England.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Pick'em
Over/Under: 40
Star D-lineman Albert Haynesworth is back and he adds a major boost to the Titan defensive unit, but it won't be enough in this one. Barring any awful coaching decisions by Norv Turner, we should see an impressive performance by LT (get him the ball 26-30 times), anchored by a dominant O-line effort. The Charger O-line is healthy now and will win this game with their play. Meanwhile, on defense, the Chargers will be fine handling Vince Young and the Titan offense.
Take San Diego.
ST. LOUIS RAMS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -7.5
Over/Under: 47
There is talk QB Bulger might start this week, but it still appears to be very much in the air. If he does get the nod, we like taking the points and playing against the Bengals. Both teams have an offense that can create mismatches in the passing game. St. Louis' defense has been much more effective as the season progressed and they've gotten healthier. The offense, with Jackson back in the lineup, has the ability to run the ball and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines, but they can also score quickly, hitting big plays.
We think the Rams will make a few more big plays on both sides of the ball, while Cincy will make a few more mistakes, costing them. Let's take the points with a road team that is much better than their record indicates...but only if Bulger gets the start.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Bucs -3
Over/Under: 40.5
This is a dangerous set-up for the Bucs, as they recorded a big divisional win last weekend, effectively securing them the division title. Now they head out on the road as a 3-point favorite to play a feisty non-conference team. That said, they should be able to overcome any issues with focus and get a solid win over a beat up Houston team. The Texans unfortunate injury situation this season has knocked the wheels off what could have been an impressive campaign. Jeff Garcia is expected to play, which gives the Bucs a balanced offense. They'll establish the run, which opens up the passing attack. We expect success both on the ground and when they drop back and throw downfield (Houston is missing their best corner).
The Tampa Bay defense will have the answers for whatever Houston throws at them. Sage Rosenfels is a decent back-up, but he's a back-up for a reason. It is going to be difficult to score many points vs. this unit that plays the Cover 2 defense as well as any team in the league. Tampa Bay will score a nice win.
Take the Bucs.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -7
Over/Under: 44.5
Laying a TD with a Mike Holmgren coached team is always a scary ordeal, but we're going to take our chances. The Seahawks should get heat on the QB with their pass rush, meaning Kurt Warner will have to manage the offense facing a lot of pressure. Warner's performance in such conditions has been awful in the past. With injury trouble in key positions, notably their receiving corps and in their secondary, this is going to be a difficult game to win. The Hawks passing game has a definite edge and with their reasonably balanced offense, they'll cause problems all day for the Cards D.
We'll play on the home side in this one.
Take Seattle.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: Vikings -8.5
Over/Under: 39
It's hard to play against a red-hot Viking team and even harder to make a case for playing on a dreadful 49'er squad, but that is exactly what we're going to do. Minnesota comes into this one riding a three-game winning streak and are coming off a very impressive drubbing of division-rival Detroit (42-10). Now they have to come out to the West Coast and face a team that is anchored in the bottom of the Conference. Next week Minnesota has a game vs. another divisional opponent, the Chicago Bears. Yes, the Vikings need wins as they are trying to secure a Wild-Card berth, but the set-up is such that we don't feel this team will put their best foot forward this Sunday...and the 49'ers will be their ready to pounce...nahhh...this 49'er team isn't capable of pouncing on anyone. But they can perform well enough on defense to keep things respectable and offensively, as long as they don't commit egregious mistakes and get Gore his touches they're capable of hanging in there.
We like getting the big points on a home team that looks like they could catch a road side in a small letdown spot. As long as they breakeven or win the turnover battle, the Niners should make a game of it.
Take San Francisco.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM
NEW YORK JETS
Line: Browns -3
Over/Under: 47.5
We expect the Browns to run plenty of spread formations, and load up one side, presenting serious matchup problems for the Jets. They'll flood a side, which has worked for them most of the year, allowing QB Anderson a quick read to find the open receiver. They'll also be able to run the ball on a Jet defense that is not good at stopping a competent ground game, let alone handling a running attack supported by a potent passing game.
New York wasn't challenged last week on either side of the ball by the Dolphins. They ran up the score and cruised to a big win. This week's matchup, vs. a highly motivated Browns team, won't go anywhere near as well. Cleveland will win this game if they don't give it away with too many mistakes. Buy the half point if you have to, but there are threes out there - and play the Browns at -3.
**Take the Browns** Best Bet
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM
DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Broncos -6.5
Over/Under: 37
The Broncos give up a lot of points (31st in the league in points allowed), which makes life very tough on their offense, who have to try and keep up all the time. This leads to mistakes, which leads to turnovers, which leads to a season without a playoff game. But in this contest, they're facing a team that will struggle for any level of offensive consistency, turning down the heat considerably on both the Bronco offense and defense.
Kansas City's defense has been playing well. They can get pressure on the QB and do a good job of executing the Cover-2 scheme. But it will be tough for them to take over this game when they'll receive little support from their offense.
Take Denver.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Colts -9
Over/Under: 42
Are the Ravens ready to play another nationally televised matchup vs. one of the AFC's elite? After last week's epic battle vs. the patriots and all the emotional expenditure and spillover, it's difficult to predict how they'll approach this one. Baltimore has lost six straight and waved goodbye to the playoff s along time ago. Meanwhile, the Colts are focused on two things: their health - both staying healthy and getting healthy, and keeping a grip on the #2 seed in the AFC.
When going through the matchups, the unit that will have the best chance of putting their stamp on this one is actually the Colt defense. There won't be any surprises from the Raven offense, as they get the ball to McGahee all night. But the Colt defense is adept at forcing running plays Bob Sanders way (and he's great at going to the plays). Sanders is going to be up close to the line with the linebackers all game. They're going to force QB Boller to beat them with his arm, which is going to be a very difficult task against the Indy Cover 2 scheme. Even with Sanders cheating up all night, a Boller-led passing game isn't going to create problems.
The Colt offense will get its points, working a balanced attack to put together long, point-producing drives. We like Indy to win and don't want to rely on this Baltimore offense to try and keep it within the number.
Take the Colts.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2007
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN
ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Saints -3.5
Over/Under: 43
Both teams are a mess, but the Falcons mess is a bigger one. They have problems everywhere. Offensively, it's been a struggle from the first snap of the season and now defensively they are in trouble. Their front four will let them down again, even though the Saints running game hasn't been effective most of the year. Speaking of that running game, we're still not sure if Reggie Bush will play in this one or not (torn PCL). He practiced all out on Thursday but reports later that day suggested his knee was really bothering him. Regardless if he plays or not, the Saints should be able to produce yards running the ball. This will allow Brees to make plays with his arm. Neither team provides us with any level of confidence, but New Orleans has the better chance of winning this one, so we'll lean to them.
Take the Saints.
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