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NFL WEEK 15
Saturday, December 15th
CINCINNATI
AT
SAN FRANCISCO
Line: Bengals -8
Over/Under: 42
How do you take the 49'ers? How do you lay 8 points on the road with the Bengals? What we're doing is plugging our nose and chucking a few dollars down on the home dog. QB Shaun Hill will get his first start, which is a nice upgrade from Dilfer...we don't care how good of a "game manager" Trent is, he can't throw the ball downfield anymore...he can't throw 10-yard outs anymore. Hill is an upgrade. He'll be getting the ball into Gore's hands most of the day, and we fully expect the Bengals to load up the box and try and stop Gore. He'll still get some yards, but the Bengals aren't good enough to bring everyone up and not give up yards through the air, even against this anemic San Fran offensive unit. If the offense can help out a little, the Niners have a real shot, as we expect to see a defense that goes hard all game, and makes plays.
We'll take the points.
Take the Niners.
Sunday, December 16th
ARIZONA
NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3.5
Over/Under: 48
The loser in this one is waving bye bye to the playoffs. Look for New Orleans to get pressure on QB Warner, which will take the heat off a weak Saint secondary, allowing New Orleans to handle the Cardinals offense. There is no reason to believe Drew Brees and the Saints offense, which actually might be better without Reggie Bush, won't be able to roll up some points. We're going to play on a home side that will be in Warner's face all game. Buy the half point and play the Saints at -3.
**Take the Saints. ** Best Bet
ATLANTA
AT
TAMPA BAY
Line: -12.5
Over/Under: 38
"This too shall pass" is hopefully what the Falcon fans and owner Arthur Blank are chanting to themselves. It has been a dreadful year for this franchise, starting with the Michael Vick fiasco and continuing this week when Coach Petrino snuck out in the middle of the night. This has been a season to forget.
The Bucs will have Jeff Garcia back this weekend, which should result in a better offensive performance for the Tampa squad. But we're still not comfortable laying this many points with the Bucs, even against a floundering Falcon team. In fact, we expect an inspired effort from Atlanta, particularly on defense, and if that happens, they can keep this within the spread.
Take the Falcons.
BALTIMORE
AT
MIAMI
Line: Ravens -3.5
Over/Under: 37.5
We're sadists so we're taking the Miami Dolphins to get their first win of the season over a troubled Raven team. Are the Dolphins missing key players? Yes. Do they lack talent in most positions? Yes. Do they lack confidence? Yes. But throw that all out. Yes, those things are all true and a proud Baltimore defense has more talent in its front seven than the entire Dolphin team. However, the QB change, desperation and maybe a break or two gets them at least the cover. The Dolphins have shown they can keep games close, and there is no way we're comfortable laying more than a field goal on the road with this Baltimore team.
Take Miami.
BUFFALO
AT
CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -5.5
Over/Under: 40
The defensive side of the ball will be the difference in this game. The Bill offense is going to push the ball more this week, as they get more comfortable with QB Edwards and the running game will produce yards. Despite not being a very good offense overall so far this season, today's matchups work for them. The Buffalo defense has holes, but we like their safeties and they'll be a big part of the action in this one, working on Kellen Winslow and making plays even when in single coverage. If the weather is a problem, it makes taking the points with the Bills even more attractive.
Take Buffalo.
GREEN BAY
AT
ST. LOUIS
Line: Packers -8.5
Over/Under: 45
The Rams haven't thrown in the towel, as they come out each and compete, but the cupboard is getting bare. Injuries everywhere, particularly at QB, make it difficult to find ways to beat decent teams. However, Marc Bulger is slated to start this game, after missing the last two with a concussion. The Packers are a notch or two above the "decent" level, so this presents a tough challenge for the home side. However, if Bulger can stay in the game, it means Green Bay can't load up to stop Jackson. We'll take the points and play on the home side, hoping their QB can make it through the game.
Take the Rams.
JACKSONVILLE
AT
PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -4
Over/Under: 37
Both teams are in the playoffs, now it's all about trying to get the best spot. This will be a great battle between a pair of teams who play that aggressive "smash-mouth" style. The Jags will be playing in the cold, on the worst field in the league, but don't fret, this team is built for cold weather ball (even though they are a Florida squad). They look after the ball, they can establish the run and have a passing game that compliments the ground attack, and doesn't do anything to hurt their team's chances. They'll handle the Steeler offense, which gives them a great shot at the win.
Take the Jaguars.
NY JETS
AT
NEW ENGLAND
Snow is in the forecast at Foxboro, which is why you saw the big drop in the total (51 to 44). Forget all the Spygate stuff, forget that Belichick and Mangini hate each other, the weather will be a factor and we also believe the Pats are going to look closer at establishing their ground game. Yes, Belichick is motivated to lay a hammer down on the Jets, and New York doesn't have the depth to match up with this Pat squad...so this is a win for the Pats, even in a blizzard. That said, with the weather and the running game, we feel the value lies taking the 24-point underdog as the set-up isn't ideal for an absolute blowout.
Take the Jets.
SEATTLE
AT
CAROLINA
Line: Seahawks -7
Over/Under: 37
Look for a Seahawk letdown after a solid home win last week over Arizona. On paper, this one shouldn't be close, but expect a very spirited effort from the Panthers on both sides of the ball, as they play for their jobs and their coaches. This effort will be enough to keep it close vs. a Seattle team playing on the East Coast.
Take the Panthers.
TENNESSEE
AT
KANSAS CITY
Line: Titans -3.5
Over/Under: 34
The Chiefs are finished, but this can still be a tough spot to play. Tennessee has gone cold the last month and a half, losing four of five, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot. It's hard to lay three and a half points on the road with the Titans, but considering all the problems with the Chiefs, namely awful run blocking and weak pass protection, Tennessee has a very good chance at a solid road win. They are a better team in virtually every area right now. We expect them to shake off last week's collapse vs. San Diego and book a convincing win. Buy the hook and take Tennessee at -3.
Take the Titans.
INDIANAPOLIS
AT
OAKLAND
Line: 10.5
Over/Under: 45
It's been another ling season for the Raiders, but there are positive signs on the horizon, which is unusual for this franchise. They have Jamarcus Russell as their QB to build around and back Justin Fargas has emerged as a legitimate answer in the backfield. That said, facing a swarming Cover-2 defense and an offense that loves scoring points, we're not uncomfortable laying the points with Indy. Buy it to 10 if you have to and play the Colts.
Take Indy.
DETROIT
AT
SAN DIEGO
Line: Chargers -10
Over/Under 45.5
Did the Lions lay it all out in their loss last week to the Cowboys and have now packed it in? That's difficult to say, but we're banking on that answer being "Yes". Missing Merriman will hurt the Charger defense, but they still should be able to get to Kitna, which means this offense falls apart. And the Charger offense, despite the poor play of Rivers, will get yards on the ground and through the air. LT should have another big day.
Take San Diego.
PHILADELPHIA
AT
DALLAS
Line: Cowboys -10
Over/Under: 48.5
The Cowboys survived a scare last week when they thought they could take a week off vs. the Lions, but that won't happen this weekend. We expect a statement game from Dallas, as they come out firing. This team has too much talent on both sides of the ball for the Eagles to stay close...if they stay focused, which they will.
Take the Cowboys.
WASHINGTON
AT
NY GIANTS
Line: Giants -4.5
Over/Under: 35.5
The Redskins still have their sights set on a playoff spot, while a Giant win seals a post-season spot for them. Eli Manning has not looked good the last couple of weeks, but he has been able to pull out wins. The Redskins will rely on backup Todd Collins to guide the offense, with a heavy dose of handing the ball to Clinton Portis.
The Redskins are sure to use swing passes, quick curls and slants and hot reads to hopefully neutralize the New York pass rush. It might work, but even that won't be enough. The Giant defense should have a good day vs. a Washington offense that struggled with their starting QB. They'll have answers to any adjustments that are made for Collins. As long as Manning doesn't give this one away with turnovers, the Giants win and cover.
Take the Giants.
Monday, December 17th
CHICAGO
AT
MINNESOTA
Line: Vikings -11
Over/Under: 43
The Bears, with Kyle Orton behind center, have a good chance at covering this number. The Viking pass defense is still unimpressive, and their passing game on offense, while putting up good numbers recently, isn't as good as the numbers. Minnesota will try and load up vs. the run, making Orton beat them. We think he can connect on enough passes to keep drives alive and score a few points. We're also counting on the special teams and defense of the Bears to have a good game, helping out with field position.
Take the Bears.
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