By Greg Dempson

In August of 1979 Nick Nolte starred in the movie "North Dallas 40", loosely based on a semi-autobiographical novel by Peter Gent, a former Cowboys wide receiver in the 1960's. Peter played for Dallas from 1964 - 1968 and caught 68 passes for 989 yards and had 4 touchdowns in his career as a "supporting role" receiver.

The characters closely resembled real-life team members with Seth Maxwell compared to quarterback Don Meredith, Strothers to Tom Landry, and Elliott to Peter Gent himself. I remember watching the movie, (yes I'm showing my age,) but how's this for showing my age, we watched the movie at the drive-in. The audio quality of the movie (with those little speakers you hung on the windows) was definitely surpassed be the rubber-like texture of the hot dogs at the canteen. I don't recall if the sound track was available on 8-track but it most likely was. My ride back then was a brand new 1979 Chrysler Cordoba, but when we went to the movies I drove a 1948 four door Pontiac Silver Streak I had recently won in a three card draw poker game near Madge Lake.

The Silver Streak (complete with the Indian Chief on the hood) had 73,000 original miles when I took ownership and I drove it 200 miles back to Regina, Saskatchewan. It had an old sun visor, suicide doors and a starter. I accepted that car in lieu of a $570.00 debt and sold it in 1981 for $1,900.00. To this day I'm sorry I sold that car, the interior was large enough to hold a small Texas Hold em tourney!

Fast forward almost 30 years, Dallas heads north this week and is live in a play against system vs. the Lions, as Detroit allowed 40 or more points last week and is a 10½-point home dog at this juncture of the season. So, the Cowboys head north to Detroit...but which team goes south ATS, Dallas or Detroit?

This is another one of those, "you've got to suck it up and bet the underdog" systems with a great track record of 22 - 4 - 1 ATS since 1989.

Here is the system: play on all home dogs of + 6 or more points from Week 8 out when returning home off a straight up loss, while allowing 40 or more points.

Last Sunday the Lions were defeated 42 - 10 at Minnesota so they qualify as a play on team within the system. Remember they must be a home dog of + 6 or more so the Dolphins game does not apply as they are on the road and hence not a home dog.

The record is:

22 - 04 - 01 = 84.6% ATS.

11 - 2 - 1 ATS in division, 7 - 2 ATS in Conference & 4 - 0 in Inter-Conf. play. 

14 - 01 - 01 = 93.3% ATS if they scored 14 or less in last week's loss.

As for actually playing this Lions blindly based on the system alone, I can not, I feel the line should be +13, as well Detroit's special teams are ranked 31st. Dallas is too good a team to have such a significant special teams' advantage plus there is a huge edge in offensive and defensive rankings in favor of Dallas.

Bad Coaching Award.

Talk about a bonehead time out call, head coach Joe Gibbs called consecutive time outs at games end attempting to freeze the Buffalo kicker and that's against the rules which resulted in a 15-yard penalty thus turning a 51-yard field goal attempt into a 36-yard attempt. To be sure, the entire organization had and has a lot on their minds due to the tragic death of Sean Taylor. Off a tough week and a tough loss to Buffalo the Redskins have but a few days to prepare for their Thursday night contest vs. the Bears.

NFL Officials.

I have seen it all throughout the years when it comes to the zebras. Thursday night there were some questionable calls which incidentally all went in favor of Dallas. Owens was awarded possession of a ball that he never had and that cost Green Bay a challenge and hence the Packers could not challenge what I thought was a bad spot later in the game and Green Bay settled for a field goal. And when the sports highlights show the phantom pass interference call that ultimately decided Green Bay's fate, you know the officiating crew made a bad call.

How about Cleveland's no-catch late in the game? Winslow had one foot in and he was pushed out, a judgment call that is not reviewable. If you had the Cards and the under you are a happy camper. And while I'm on the topic of the Browns/Cards contest, I was certain that Cleveland's receiver did not make a catch (which was supported by the CBS broadcast crew) but nevertheless Cleveland was awarded the catch. As I stated last week, there's no such thing as a sure thing when gambling, the human element always comes into play. Personally I can not complain as my full service selections went 7 - 2 ATS on Saturday and Sunday.

It's Now Late Monday Night, Another Close One!

I just finished watching the Patriots defeat the Ravens. The game fell on exactly 51 points and if you played that game over 51½ early in the week you got hooked. If you bet it under early at 51½ and over 46 on Monday night you "middled" the bookie! Don't get hooked when playing totals over 51½ points. You rarely see a game produce 7 touchdowns and only one field goal in order to climb to 52 points, that doesn't happen. However 3 touchdowns and 2 field goals for one team vs. 3 touchdowns and one field goal for the opposing team is very realistic and that adds up to exactly 51 points.

Once again there are two totals whereby the books have hung that ½ point hook onto 51. So, if you like the over in the Lions/Cowboys game or the over in the Patriots/Steelers contest, bet it over at 51 not 51½. (My ghost line on the Patriots/Steelers contest is 52 and 51½ points, check the Foxboro weather and as long as it isn't windy I recommend you wait as the over/under number might fall below 51.) Keep in mind the Patriots are 10 out of 10 to the over when the total is less than 53 points.

Last Week in Review.

My selection on the Packers lost bringing my Every Edge record to 10 - 5 - 1 ATS for the 2007 campaign with all 16 recommendations of the NFL variety.

On to This Week's Selection.

The total on the Panthers/Jaguars game is 37½ points, I like this game over the total at 37 - 1.17. More games land on exactly 37 points than any other combined score in the NFL so buy the total down ½ point to 37. The Jaguars have scored 24 or more points in their last seven Sunday contests while giving up an average of 19.43 PPG in that same seven game span. And finally, since 1980, two non division teams in this exact situation have sailed over the total 77% ATS with more than 50 occurrences in the system. Play the Jaguars and Panthers over 37 points.

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