By Greg Dempson

Teams that need to win to qualify for post season play vs. foes that are playing out the string are subject to penalties with regards to inflated lines in the closing weeks of the regular season.

League parity has numerous teams in the mix for potential Wild Card post season play plus NFC Conference winners Green Bay and Dallas are playing for home field advantage. Green Bay was a 3 point home favorite vs. the Bears in week five and lost straight up 27 - 20, so the Packers laying 9 points has been adjusted when you account for a 3 point home field advantage.

Weather, as well as a division game can keep the lines maker honest. Fast forward to week 17 and factor in a straight up week 16 win by Green Bay vs. Chicago and a Dallas victory at Carolina. If the Redskins are eliminated from the playoff race vs. Minnesota then Washington will be getting more points when they host Dallas in week 17 as Dallas needs to win to secure home field advantage in the playoffs.

Green Bay will be laying a premium price at home vs. the Lions as the Packers/Lions result will be final before Dallas plays Washington. If the Lions pulled off a week 17 upset at Green Bay, the line in the Cowboys/Redskins contest will fall quicker than a pair of White House slacks looking down at a blue dress. Do your homework and check the starting line-ups of both teams before making a wager and this is especially true pertaining to totals.

Falcons, Dolphins and Parcells.

Since my last offering at Every Edge, Bobby Petrino resigned, the Dolphins finally won a game and Parcells is back in the head coaching mix.

The Falcons.

File this one away under the lame duck coach system. When a head coach resigns, is fired or is on a leave of absense due to health, the interim coach has fared horrible in his first game. Rather than step up and win one as the replacement coach, these newly coached teams suck ATS. Dating back to 1978 all interim coached teams have covered slightly less than 40 percent in their first game and lately the interim head coach has gone 3 - 17 - 1 ATS including 1 - 9 - 1 ATS since 1998. And if they are a road dog of more than 10 points they are now 2 - 6 ATS as the most recent result/victim, the Atlanta Falcons, were crushed 37 - 3 by the Bucs.

Bill Parcells.

So, Parcells apparently had a head coaching deal in place with Atlanta, but passed and appears to be heading to Miami. That will teach Cam Cameron to finally win a game.

Last Week at Every Edge.

My selection on the Panthers/Seahawks over 37 lost and my record is now 11 - 6 - 1 ATS this season. High winds is not an excuse because I lost that selection as I have played every game that I have offered in this years column. When it comes to outdoor games hold off when playing the over due to weather, so when it is windy backing off or reducing your wager on an over must be considered be it a warm or cold weather site. And speaking of weather related games, the Steelers/Jaguars total was bet down to 34 and 33.5 come kick-off but the game still sailed over the number. The Patriots/Jets total fell to 41 at most shops and the books were hammered on that game. As for the Browns and Bills contest, the total was a solid under plus a score of 8 - 0 was indeed rare as the last time that happened Minneapolis played the Cardinals from Chicago on November 10, 1929. I bet that one early and that you Buffalo for that safety.

This Week's Selection.

The Eagles shut down Dallas last week 10 - 6 as a double-digit underdog. Road teams off a straight up win in this exact situation are covering the spread better than 65% ATS when a dog the following week. The Eagles are on the outside looking in with regards to post season play while the Saints still have a shot at post season play

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