Sonny Gets A Couple Of Basic Reminders PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 28 November 2007

 

I don’t know, maybe it was due to the gluttony that is part of the Thanksgiving weekend tradition. (I am not sure why the “Thanksgiving” tradition started, it originated in the Pilgrim days, so I guess it had something to do with giving thanks that the early settlers had survived another year without being scalped. And speaking of Indians, here is Paul Mooney, making fun of California. “The state is running commercials that have citizens, Wasp’s of course, saying, ‘Indian casinos made 300 million last year and didn’t pay a nickel worth of taxes. I don’t remember voting for THAT!’” Mooney’s response – “The Indians should shoot a commercial, with an Indian speaking, ‘The White people took all our land, and didn’t pay us a nickel. I don’t remember voting for THAT!’”)

 

But I digress. Now, back to topic.

 

Maybe it was a carry over into other areas in which things besides eating and lazing around are also done to the extreme. For whatever reason, I made over thirty wagers this past week, which is more than double my usual tally.

 

All in all a good experience though, as I pulled out a 20-9 record (I don’t factor in ties, and I had two.) Could have been better though – I had Utah +4’ over BYU and they had a one point lead with barely over a minute left. AND fourth and twenty-something for BYU. Simple task at hand for my defenders, eh? KEEP EVERYONE IN FRONT OF YOU! I wish. Pass, complete, first down. Still, no worries, right? I mean, I’m getting 4’, BYU will kick a game wining FG as time runs out, eh? Not if my defense doesn’t stop the run, which given the score and time left on the clock is the ONLY thing they have to defend against now, right? Run, straight up the middle, TD, BYU, loser, S.P.

 

And the worst beat of the weekend – Vargas. I’m ten seconds away from a 10-9 11th round that will get me a victory and ‘Nando gets caught off balance and knocked on his butt. 10-9 round for Vargas becomes 10-8 for Mayorga, and proves to be the difference on the scorecards as Mayorga wins a majority decision.

 

Still, hard to complain when your wins more than double your losses, especially with a high number of plays out. But you have to look at your losses and analyze them to increase your win percentage and two bets stick out as mistakes that should have not taken hindsight to recognize, as they both crossed tow basic wagering maxims.

 

First, in boxing, NEVER bet on the fighter who is retiring after the bout. There are no future promotional dollars to be made off of him, so why should promoters let him win? Vargas was in his last fight. Edge, Mayorga, mistake, Palermo!

 

Second, an NFL basic – when you have two division rivals with a total of 48 or higher the high percentage play is UNDER! Last weekend, Houston at Texas was over 48. And they are both mathematically fighting for a playoff spot, which makes the game even more important, and even more reason to look for the D’s to step up and play hard. Still, the Browns defense sucks, Houston had all their offensive players healthy again, and I thought I could get at least 24 out of each of them. Wrong!

 

So, 20-9, that should have been 20-7 had I not bet against standard maxims, 22-7 had I bet with them. Of course the biggest concern right now is NOT to go into this week looking to make thirty wagers again, thinking I can hit higher that 67% with that many wagers two weeks in a row.

 

Want an 8-0 stat for the NBA?

 

Go to the www.everyedge.com forum. Look at the sticky thread at the top of the page. Look at the post by big Ed, where he gives you spots to look at. See the section where he listed four games active, to date? (the one where the next play isn’t until December.) Check the scores: 4-0 ATS. Where are the other 4 winners from the 8-0 I mentioned. Look at the four games again. See the commonality in results?

 

Thanks Ed!

 

Despite my profitable week, I do not think that all is well within my world, as I was channel flippin the other night and came upon “The Incredibles” and found myself thinking, “Mrs. Incredibles’ got a nice ass.” I probably should be concerned, but I’m not - it’s not like a precedent hasn’t been set – I found Helene Bonham Carter attractive in “Planet of the Apes” and I seem to have been doing fine ever since - no arrests, no court mandated therapy, etc.

 

Selection/Review

Who’s your buddy, who’s your pal, who gave you not one but TWO winners last week? Atl. team total Under – BANG! winner! Oak/KC game Over – BANG! winner!

 

9-6 now in this space and this week I have two more. What is the situation I like almost as much as Shanahan off a bye? Shanhan versus the Al Davis’s! I can’t believe they hung a total of 41 on this one. Sunday night I banged it like a sailor on shore leave. If it goes up, I should say WHEN it goes up, buy the hook down to 41 and take the Over. And also make a play on Denver team total over. Their offense has found its rhythm and coming off a come from ahead fourth quarter loss to Chicago expect Shanny to take it out on his nemesis Davis.

 

1 UNIT EACH, GAME OVER, DENVER TEAM TOTAL OVER!!!

 

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