"Once you realize that you are always an underdog, that mentality fits in with some of the things that we believe in from an inspirational standpoint" Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. "We have something to prove every time that we play because if there are 100 of you out there, 70 of you don't think we can win. If you are a competitor that strikes you."
Greetings and welcome to my final Every Edge magazine column for the 2007 campaign. Let's play the game as I'm tired of all the hype surrounding it. Okay, down to brass tacks!
Common Ground.
Eleven of the New York Giants 19 opponents also played against the Patriots while 9 of the 18 foes the Patriots faced also played the Giants. The New York Giants were 7 - 4 ATS and 8 - 3 straight up. Obviously the Patriots went 9 - 0 straight up and they were 6 - 3 ATS.
The Giants Common Foes.
At Dallas, lost 45 - 35.
At Washington, won 24 - 17.
Home Philadelphia, won 16 - 03.
Home NY Jets, won 35 - 24.
Neutral vs. Miami, won 13 - 10.
Home Dallas, lost 31 - 20.
At Detroit, won 16 - 10.
At Philadelphia, won 16 - 13.
Home Washington, lost 10 - 22.
At Buffalo, won 38 - 21.
At Dallas won, 21 - 17.
The Patriots Common Foes.
At NY Jets, won 38 - 14.
Home Buffalo won 38 - 07.
At Dallas, won 48 - 27.
At Miami, won 49 - 28.
Home Washington, won 56 - 10.
At Buffalo 56 - 10.
Home Philadelphia, won 31 - 28.
Home NY Jets, won 20 - 10.
Home Miami, won 28 - 07.
When New England (-13 points) played at the Meadowlands they defeated the Giants straight up 38 - 35, (but lost ATS) in week 17.
The Giants strength of schedule was #13 vs.#25 strength of schedule for the Patriots.
Super Bowl Trivia.
If the New York Giants defeat the Patriots on Sunday they will become the second team to hoist the coveted Lombardi Super Bowl Trophy by winning four consecutive playoff contests away from home. Who was the other team? Answer at the end of my column.
A Revenge Factor System.
When we wager on a team (the Giants) who are playing with revenge from their most recent meeting (New York lost to New England on December 29th) the team seeking revenge is 17-8-2 or 68% ATS since 1980. Early money has moved this number approximately 2 points. Usually Super Bowl gamblers back the favorite but due to the recent success of the Giants vs. the number, 5 - 0 ATS, when pitted against the less than impressive 0 - 5 ATS recent mark of New England, money is heavier on the underdog Giants.
Does New York have a realistic chance at winning straight up? Well, as I stated above, if you reviewed their strength of schedule, Giants at #13 vs. a strength of schedule of #25 for New England, on any given Sunday........
Super Bowl Parity?
The Giants are the third consecutive Wild-Card team to advance to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl History.
The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the 1970's, (1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979,) the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the 1980's, (1981, 1984, 1988, and 1989.) If New England wins Sunday they would have four titles in the 2000's as they won in 2001, 2003 and 2004.
The Over/Under, 53½ points.
Twenty of the previous 27 Super Bowls have been played with a bye week in-between the Championship games and the Super Bowl. When there was an extra week to prepare for the big game the average Super Bowl score produced a combined 53 points. In the seven contests played without a bye week, the average score was just over 43 points per game.
When the total is greater than 49 points there have been 6 overs and 3 unders and when the game has been played on grass there have been 16 overs and 8 unders regardless of the posted total.
The Patriots were 10 - 4 - 1 to the over this season when they were favored by 10 or more points.
Favorites vs. Underdogs and Trends.
Favorites of 14 or more points are 2 - 2 - 1 ATS.
Favorites of 10 to - 13½ points are 5 - 3 ATS.
The underdog has covered four of the last six Super Bowls.
Tom Brady is 14 - 2 straight up in playoff contests but only 8 - 7 - 1 ATS.
All three of New England's Super Bowl victories have been by exactly 3 points.
The New York Giants have won a record 10 straight road games and covered 9 of those 10 ATS.
Playing the Underdog and the Over?
If you wagered on the Giants early and have them at +13 or more and also wagered on the over at 53 points - 1.17, you can not lose both wagers as long as New York can score a minimum of 20 points. New England gave up 21 points to the Eagles, 29 points to the Panthers and 17 to the Rams or an average of 25.66 points per game in their most recent three Super Bowl appearances. In their first Super Bowl game vs. the Bears the Patriots allowed 46 points and they allowed the Packers 35 points.
My Every Edge Record for this Season.
I lost my last selection on the Packers and finished the season at Every Edge with a very respectable record of 14 - 7 - 1 = 66.7% ATS with all of my recommendations being NFL picks.
In last year's Super Bowl column I recommended two teasers and both won. Let's try two additional fun teasers for this years' game. I placed a "beer and pizza" two team 7-point teaser on the Giants +19 to the Giants/Patriots over 46½ points. I also played a two team 7-point teaser on the Patriots at - 5 to over 46½ points. Enjoy the game.
Super Bowl Trivia Answer.
The 2005 Super Bowl Champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, won on the road at Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver and then defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots also won three road contests but were crushed 46 - 10 by the Chicago Bears in the Super Bowl.
