by Greg Dempson 

There is no such thing as a betting lock, a cinch or a certain win and far too many sports services utilize this lock word on a daily basis. In my estimation perhaps the only phrase that could possibly be worse is, "The game of your life. Some scammers go with, "The game of my life." Of course the honorable thing to do when the game of his life lost would be to simply fade into the sunset. No, fade to black that would be better. These guys couldn't pick Pinocchio's nose let alone a winner. 

I'll repeat, there simply is no such thing as a sure thing, a classic example of what could go wrong but fortunately didn't, was the contest last weekend between Tampa Bay and Washington. The worst possible scenario reared its ugly head when starting quarterback Jeff Garcia was injured in Tampa's first series of the game during the Bucs' third play. I made a substantial wager on Tampa Bay and was fortunate to get the win and cover. It came down to a Buccaneer interception in the end zone to seal the deal and believe you me, more than my heart was in my throat. You can handicap the games inside and out but you can not account for intangibles such as injuries, a fluke play or a specials teams' play or turnover that sways momentum.

 Remember, there is no such thing as a sure thing when gambling, locks are for doors and if you'll excuse the spelling/pun, locks go hand to mouth with bagels. 

Sharing a Futility Record.What do Eli Manning and Ed Baker have in common? Well, in his lone NFL start for the Houston Oilers in 1972, quarterback Ed Baker completed four out of 10 passes and threw four interceptions plus three of the picks were returned for touchdowns. Fast forward to week 12, 2007 and Eli Manning now shares that record with Ed Baker, as Manning also threw four picks and had three interceptions returned for touchdowns vs. the Vikings. This was the second four interception game for Eli and oddly enough the other four pick contest was also vs. the Vikings. The Giants are a small road favorite this week at Chicago with an O/U of 43. The special teams' edge goes to the Bears who are ranked # 1 while the Giants are ranked in the low 20's. With Hester's ability and weather permitting the over is worth a look. 

Cowboys vs. Packers.Did the NFL Network ever pick a gem of a stand alone game for this Thursday night!
Each team is 10 - 1 straight up and the straight up winner will most likely have home field advantage though out the playoffs. The last time the Packers were 10 - 1 was in 1962. If I was a player on the Dallas squad would I prefer the confines of Texas Stadium or the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field? Exactly! Dallas has never been 10 - 1 straight up. Looking at the the history of all games played between Dallas and Green Bay: 

The home team has covered eight consecutive ATS and is 12 - 3 ATS the past 15. Brett Favre is 0 - 8 straight up, 1 - 7 ATS at Texas Stadium, (including playoffs.) With Green Bay having six starters on offense that are first or second year players it could be a long day for Green Bay, especially if Charles Woodson isn't 100%. When you have a team that is 10 - 1 straight up you don't see them getting +6½ points. Green Bay's only loss was at home vs. the Bears, 27 - 20 while Dallas lost at home to the Patriots 48 - 27. Dallas has won 8 of 11 by double-digits. The total opened at 51½ and if you like the over, don't get hooked as 51½ and 52 as well as 52½ are dead numbers, 51 is a key number if you're going to wager on the over.

 Monday Night Football, Patriots at Ravens.

 It was only last week that I strongly suggested New England would go undefeated barring injury. Well, faster than you could say, "Witness Protection Program," I almost stopped the Patriots streak straight up and they were a 23-point favorite! With that 31 - 28 victory vs. the Eagles the Patriots became the 13^th team in NFL history to start a season at 11 - 0. As good as New England has been at covering the numbers (9 - 2 ATS) they have been just as strong at sailing over the totals. With last Sunday night's game sailing over the total New England has played over in 9 of 11 games and a perfect 9 - 0 when the O/U was 53 or lower. Incidentally the Ravens are the biggest Monday night home dog in the history of Monday night football. With the marquee games (NBC) televised on Sunday vs. the "so called" lesser Monday contests we might be privy to more of the 10 point Monday night home dogs. 

The Baltimore Ravens, Inside the Numbers.

For the first time in franchise history the Baltimore Ravens have now lost five in a row. A closer look at Baltimore shows some disturbing trends since their home game in week six vs. the Rams. Overall Baltimore holds the season TOP (Time of Possession) edge vs. all their opponents, 30:55 vs. 29:39, (includes overtime.) However, since that week six home game vs. the Rams they have lost the time of possession battle every week. In their seven games before the bye week Baltimore played 2 overs, 3 unders with 2 games pushing on the total.  Since they've lost the TOP battle after their bye week they have played 3 overs and 1under. This is an old team and their offense isn't producing so the longer they stay on the field the less effective they become, hence the overs. 

Note the following Ravens TOP from week 7 till present.

Week 7, Bills, 31:26 vs. 28:34 Ravens.

Week 8, bye

Week 9, Steelers, 36:15 vs. 23:45 Ravens.

Week 10, Bengals 35:42 vs. 24:18 Ravens

Week 11, Browns 37:43 vs. 28:07 Ravens

Week 12, Chargers 31:55 vs. 28:05 Ravens

Also note that Baltimore is - 9 in takeaways vs. a + 16 for New England.

 New England Patriots.

Overall the Patriots have dominated in TOP as New England has possessed the ball 33:36 per game vs. an average of 26:17 for their opponents. Here's how their TOP matches up vs. their opponents.Week 1, Patriots 33:09 vs. 26:51 Jets.Week 2, Patriots 35:26 vs. 24:14 Chargers.Week 3, Patriots 34:19 vs. 25:41 BillsWeek 4, Patriots 37:24 vs. 22:36 Bengals.Week 5, Patriots 32:27 vs. 27:33 Browns.Week 6, Patriots 38:15 vs. 21:45 Cowboys.Week 7, Patriots 24:55 vs. 35:05 DolphinsWeek 8, Patriots 37:49 vs. 22:11 Redskins.Week 9, Patriots 29:44 vs. 30:16 Colts.Week 10, byeWeek 11, Patriots 34:54 vs. 25:06 Bills.Week 12, Patriots 32:11 vs. 27:49 Eagles.Week 13, Patriots @ Ravens. New England has won the TOP in 9 of 11 contests with their most impressive domination at Dallas vs. the Cowboys. Off a poor effort, (or perhaps a great game plan by Philadelphia,) I expect New England to control the clock vs. the Ravens. The line on this game opened at - 20 and - 20½ with an O/U of 51½. Remember 51 is a key number if you like the over.As for the side on this game, there's no way in the world that I would lay 20 points on the road. This is Baltimore's Super Bowl game as they aren't going anywhere this year plus teams that allowed more than 30 on the road and lost by more than 17 points have fared well as home dogs since 1970 when playing at home on Monday night. Home dogs of + 10 or more are on a 6 - 3 ATS clip if not off a bye week and that also pertains to the Ravens. There has been one 10 point home dog this year and that was in week five when the Buffalo Bills were + 10 at home vs. the Cowboys. Buffalo should have, could have but didn't losing by 1 point but covering easily. 

Last Week in Review at Every Edge.Last week's selection on the Buccaneers - 3 was a winner improving my Every Edge magazine column record to 10 - 4 - 1 = 71.4% ATS with all 15 selections being NFL plays. 

On to This Week's Selection.

The Packers played at the Meadowlands vs. the Giants and won 35 - 13. They also defeated the Vikings twice including 34 - 0 at home as well as defeating the Redskins 17 - 14 at home. Dallas defeated the Giants on the road 31 - 20, (45 - 35 at home) took care of Minnesota 24 - 14 at home and defeated the Redskins 28 - 23, also at home. So in three road or home comparisons Green Bay outscored their common three foes by 35 - 13, 34 - 0 and 17 - 14 for 59 combined points. Dallas was 31 - 20, 24 - 14 and 28 - 23 and outscored their opponents by 26 points. That is just a comparison but when I factor into the equation recent play I note that Green Bay's play the last four games rates an edge vs. the play of Dallas. Green Bay is ranked in the top 10 in special teams' play vs. a ranking of 17^th for Dallas.

I'll back the Packers and buy the hook to + 7 - 1.17. Good luck with Green Bay at + 7.