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The Wild Card Playoff Round |
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Friday, 04 January 2008 |
By Greg Dempson
The Cleveland Browns won 10 games this season but failed to make the playoffs as the Titans, who also went 10 – 6, grabbed the final AFC seed thanks to a better Conference record. It does not occur often, but the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos have met similar fates with a 10 – 6 straight up record and failing to make the post season. So the Titans are playing the Chargers on the West coast as the biggest underdog of the Wild Card round. Does Tennessee have a chance at covering the spread? As of this writing they are a 9 point underdog and the Titans are live in a post season system. Here is how that system sets up, play on any team that has not been in the playoffs for three or more seasons, by doing so you would be 18 – 7 ATS or 72% in the Wild Card round.
Does that in any way I recommend playing on the Titans? No, I do not like their chances but Tennessee did give them a game about four weeks ago losing to San Diego by 6 points in overtime. How has each team fared the past four contests? Well, San Diego has the # 12 offense and the # 5 defense vs. a ranking of # 24 on offense and # 8 on defense. The Chargers are + 10 in the takeaway department in that same time frame while the Titans are + 3. The Titans travel for the third time in four weeks and play in an environment that has not been kind to visiting teams as san Diego has covered their last six games at home by an average margin of 32 – 13. Vince Young’s play or lack thereof might be the difference in this contest, gun to my head I would lean to the favorite but there are better games on the board than this one.
When the Whole World Likes One Side!
The Steelers opened as a small home favorite and are now a small home dog or pick. Wild Card and Conference Semi-Final home underdogs are 12 – 3 ATS. Pittsburgh is live in another scenario this weekend, I initially like the Jaguars in this contest but factoring in the home dog system plus the huge dollars coming in on Jacksonville will have me watching this contest vs. wagering on it. A quick check through my data shows the Steelers are yet to lose two consecutive games to the same foe at home. The Ravens and Oilers came close twice but recent history indicates Jacksonville would be the first team to pull off such a feat should they defeat the Steelers this weekend. A poor playing surface at Heinz Field is about the only advantage that Pittsburgh has in this contest and if the weather is reasonable I would consider the over as a potential wager rather than the side. Jacksonville has the #1 offense and # 1 defense the past four weeks while the Steelers are ranked # 18 on offense and # 28 on defense, Pittsburgh will have to play mistake free football to win this contest.
Giants vs. Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers rested key players last week vs. the Panthers and while they have not been sharp the past four weeks, they play a home game as division winners. The giants gave it their all vs. the patriots last weekend and now travel as small road dogs. Do yourself a favor and check out how the previous teams (Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc.) fared after giving the Patriots a good game the following week because that is what the Giants are up against. The giants have turned the ball over more than any other team since Thanksgiving and the edge goes to the home team in this contest, I haven’t pulled the trigger on this contest yet as more work is needed.
My Last Selection at Every Edge.
Two week’s ago I had a play on the Eagles improving my record to 12 – 6 – 1 or 66.7% ATS for the 2007 campaign. We are down to a handful of sides and totals so caution should be used at this juncture of the season.
On to This Week’s Selection.
The Redskins travel to the Northwest to face the Seahawks. Washington is playing at the toughest of the four home venues and travel for the third time in four weeks. Seattle rested starters in the second half last week vs. the Falcons while Washington had to remain focused and play their best players vs. Dallas as they had to win to get into the playoffs. The last time the Redskins traveled to Seattle they were + 9½ point playoff road dogs and lost 20 – 10. I had this weekend’s line at – 6 and the number opened at – 5 and is currently at – 4. This selection is backed by one of my very best playoff systems plus Seattle has a better offense and defense and is the healthier team. Todd Collins has done a great job but the miracle ends this weekend. Look for the wide receivers of Seattle to be the difference in this contest and Seattle gets the win and cover.
My Wild Card selection is on Seattle – 3 (-115) points. Good winning with the Seahawks.
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