By Ben Burns

Recap

I had three plays in my column last week and all three won with relative ease. Friday's play on the Islanders/Bruins "under" stayed well below the total, as the teams combined for only three goals. That was followed by a 66-21 winner on West Virginia (-20) over Connecticut. After LSU lost on Thursday, clearing their path to the National championship game, I upgraded the play and used it as one of the premium selections on my website. Therefore, it was an especially sweet victory. The Mountaineers were like sharks that could smell blood in the water. In this crazy season, it finally seems like it may be safe to say that we can expect to see them playing for the title. Sunday's selection from the pros (San Diego) was also fairly painless. The Chargers fell behind 7-3 early in the second quarter but stormed back with 29 unanswered points, en route to a 32-14 victory.

That 3-0 card brings my record here to 19-12-2 (61.3%) ATS for the season.

Last week the "favorites" were kind to us. This week, we'll try our luck with a trio of "dogs." As always, enjoy the games and good luck!

Arizona at Arizona State

I've had a great deal of success this season by playing against teams which were coming off their first loss, provided that loss damaged their dreams of playing for a national title. That isn't exactly the case here. It's close though and the logic remains the same. The Sun Devils are coming off their second loss of the season, getting crushed 44-24 by USC. That loss likely didn't cost them a spot in the national title game. However, it did cost the Sun Devils the Pac-10 title and the subsequent BCS bowl bid that goes with it. Although they'll be facing their instate rivals, coming off that devastating loss, I won't be surprised to see the Sun Devils struggle this week. Quotes from the players and coaches can often reveal a lot about a team's mindset and I feel that's the case here. QB Rudy Carpenter, who was sacked six times, said: "The most frustrating thing for us is that a lot of these guys, our whole dream is to go play in the Rose Bowl. We had a chance for that. That is the most frustrating thing, losing at home....It is frustrating all the way around. We got beat." Coach Erickson had the following to say: "We didn't play good. It's sad. We just did not play like I thought we would in a game like this. No excuses. We just didn't do what we needed to do." Note that the Sun Devils were already dealing with a few injuries and that several players were banged-up in the USC loss.

While the Sun Devils come into this game "hanging their heads," and off their biggest loss in years, the rested Wildcats come in on a major roll. The Wildcats had last week off to heal some nagging bumps and bruises and to give them some extra preparation time. Prior to that, they come off a major upset of Oregon and victories over UCLA and Washington before that. During that time, the Wildcats have went from looking ahead to next year to possibly needing a scouting report on a bowl opponent. Additionally, coach Stoops' job, which was on shaky ground, is now secure.

The Wildcats are playing with "revenge" from a 28-14 loss at Tuscon last season. They also lost their last visit here to Tempe. However, that loss came by only three points and the Wildcats were listed as 10 point underdogs. Including the "cover" in 2005, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they traveled here. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 point range. During the same stretch, the Sun Devils have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 points. I feel the situation strongly favors the Wildcats and I expect them to earn (at least) another cover.

Play on ARIZONA

San Diego at Kansas City

Last week, we successfully played on the Chargers and they easily defeated Baltimore. Off that win, the Chargers now must travel across the country to play a 1:00 pm EST start at Arrowhead Stadium. That situation hasn't been kind to them. Both their 2006 regular season losses, including one right here at Kansas City, came when the Chargers played an "early" game. This season, the Chargers have already lost all three of their early games, losing at Green Bay, Minnesota and Jacksonville. Including the loss at Minnesota, the Chargers are 1-5 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range since the start. During the same stretch, the Chiefs, who were beaten by Oakland on Sunday, are a profitable 5-1 ATS when coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Chiefs already won outright at San Diego and they've won 14 of the past 18 series meetings here at Kansas City. Don't be surprised when they score an outright win.

Play on KANSAS CITY

Denver at Oakland

The Raiders are coming off a rare victory at Kansas City. That snapped a losing streak and I expect them to carry some positive momentum into this afternoon's contest. On the other hand, the Broncos are coming off a tough loss, as they blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead, en route to an overtime loss at Chicago. That loss really hurt their playoff chances and it dropped them to 1-4 ATS on the road for the season. That's not surprising, given that they've allowed an average of 28.8 points in those five games. While they weren't favored in the loss at Chicago, its worth mentioning that the Broncos are a dismal 4-14 ATS the last 18 times they were laying points. Conversely, the Raiders are a fairly respectable 10-7 ATS the last 17 times that they were getting points. Traveling across the country off their painful loss, playing their second straight road game while facing an under-rated and revenge-minded opponent, look for the Broncos to stumble again.

Play on OAKLAND

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