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CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI
Line: Browns -3
Over/Under: 49
The Browns need this win badly as they head for the playoffs, while the Bengals are trying to figure out what they need to do in order to be competitive next season. But that doesn't mean the Bengals will be pushovers in this rivalry. In fact, if there was anything left this season to get the Cincy squad motivated it is this tilt - their last home game, vs. their biggest rival, a team that beat them earlier in the season and now they have a chance to deliver a dagger into their playoff hopes...that should bring out the "good" Bengal team...rather than the "bad" one we've seen so often this year.
Actually, this is a tough matchup for Cleveland, as they're a relatively young group, dealing with a lot of attention, success and now big expectations...and they are on the road as a field goal favorite in the "Battle of Ohio". The weather is supposed to be ugly as well. Cincy still has an offense that can rack up points and with Chris Henry contributing, they boast three talented wideouts. Facing a very weak Brown secondary, with a decent ground game going, Palmer and his receivers will have a big day.
We like the home dog to finish the year with an inspired win.
Take the Bengals.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO
Line: Packers -8.5
Over/Under: 33
After Dallas was upset last week, all of a sudden this game has become an important win for the Packers. If things fall right for them, the NFC playoffs would have to go through Lambeau, obviously a significant edge for the Pack.
With that in mind, look for a focused effort from the road favorite. Their defense shouldn't have much problem controlling the Orton-led Bear attack. Offensively, Green Bay's balance will produce points. We don't think the Bears can keep up.
Take Green Bay.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Line: Colts -7
Over/Under: 45
The Colts have nothing to play for, aside from perhaps wanting to keep their momentum rolling through the end of the regular season. They have a bye week sewn up and can't catch the Patriots for the number one seed. We don't expect to see the starters much after the first half, as Coach Dungy protects against injuries.
The Texans will be treating this game very seriously, as they face not only the Super Bowl champs, but the king of their division. As well, Houston desperately wants to finish strong and head into the off-season on a high note, recording a winning season.
We'll take the points and play on a motivated road team, facing a club that will roll out backups for a good part of the game.
Take Houston.
KANSAS CITY AT DETROIT
Line: Lions -4.5
Over/Under: 44
It might have looked like the Lions packed it in for the season in that loss last week at San Diego, but we don't believe that to be the case. Yes, they appeared to basically quit in that Charger game, but that's not the same thing as saying goodbye to the rest of the season. This isn't a bad spot for them to put on at least one last solid performance in 2007. They're facing a team with problems everywhere. We're expecting a nice effort from the home side.
**Take the Lions. ** Best Bet
MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND
Line: Patriots -22
Over/Under: 45
The Dolphins won't stop this run at history for the Patriots, but they could be enough of a speed bump that they stay within the three touchdowns (plus) pointspread. We'll grab all those points and hope the Dolphins don't have a rash of turnovers and play for four quarters.
Take the Dolphins.
NY GIANTS AT BUFFALO
Line: Giants -2
Over/Under: 32
We don't really like either side in this tilt, but we are expecting a Bill team, with nothing really left to play for, to show up and give 100% from start to finish. Their running game will make things difficult for the Giants. New York is trying to salvage their season, which has put them in a virtual must-win game here in Buffalo. A win and they are in the playoffs. A loss and they likely have to beat New England on the road next week to get in.
New York hasn't played well for several games and historically they haven't been a good bet late in the season under Coughlin. But they do have enough edges, even without Shockey, that they should be able to find a win to win. If receivers hang on to the ball this week, Manning can move the chains against this Bill defense. The line moved down below a field goal late in the week...which is just enough for us to reluctantly side with the visitor.
Take the Giants.
OAKLAND AT JACKSONVILLE
Line: Jaguars -13
Over/Under: 38.5
This is a lot of points to lay with a Jaguar team coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh last week. Focus is a concern, but it is still difficult to ask the Raiders to cover the points in this matchup. They have traveled across the country, are playing a non-division team, they don't have their number one running back and will likely have rookie QB Russell in the game for some time. An unfocused Jag team, playing at home, should still win by a couple of touchdowns.
Take Jacksonville.
**Take the Over** Best Bet
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3
Over/Under: 47
The Saint defense is going to be the problem-child in this matchup. They won't be able to get enough pressure on McNabb, nor will they be able to effectively handle the run-game. So with McNabb getting run support and the time to throw the ball, he'll make plays vs. one of the weaker secondaries in the league. The Eagles will control the clock, and wear this D down, which means they should be able to score points later in the game.
Take the underdog Eagles.
WASHINGTON AT MINNESOTA
Line: Vikings -6.5
Over/Under: 40.5
The Vikings have been very hot, clipping off five straight wins. The Redskins are still in the playoff hunt after a pair of impressive victories. We like Washington with the points in this one, as we think they have an excellent chance at winning straight up. They're going to challenge the Viking pass defense, putting them in man coverage situations often...which gives a nice edge to the Skin offense.
The Redskin defense is going to load the box to stop the run, man up on the outside and see if QB Jackson is good enough to win this game by moving the chains throwing the ball. We'll be surprised if he passes the test. We like how the matchups and game planning favor the Redskins.
Take Washington.
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA
Line: Cardinals -10
Over/Under: 43
The Cardinals will snap their two-game losing streak (both road losses) this weekend vs. a Falcon team that just needs the season to end. The Arizona defense can have a big day vs. this O-line, the running game and the passing game...expect the Cards to score a decisive win in the Turnover department.
When Arizona has the ball, the running attack will produce all game. That will make life much easier for QB Warner, who can make plays when he has time...which he will.
Take the Cardinals.
BALTIMORE AT SEATTLE
Line: Seahawks -11
Over/Under: 39
A very good home team, the Seahawks are going to roll in this one as they work to build some momentum, and get rid of the bad tastes from last week's embarrassing loss at Carolina. They're going to have a big day on both sides of the ball, where they have clear advantages. Lay the points.
Take Seattle.
NY JETS AT TENNESSEE
Line: Titans -8.5
Over/Under: 38
We're not very comfortable laying this many points with the Titans, but that's what we're going to do. Look for the team to open things up a little more with Vince Young, allowing him to go down field, while the Tennessee defense will be able to get pressure all day long (mostly using just their front four).
The Jets are beat up (as are most teams), on the road, they played an emotionally draining game last week and is facing a team that will really, really be coming hard after a win. We'll take the team that is going to win the game and hope they also cover the spread.
Take Tennessee.
TAMPA BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO
Line: Bucs -6
Over/Under: 3.5
San Fran QB Shaun Hill has been impressive behind center, but the 49ers don't have the team to stay with a Tampa Bay squad that is headed for the playoffs and still should be somewhat motivated to play hard. The Niner offense had a solid day last week vs. the Bengals, but the Buc defense will pose a much different challenge. If Coach Gruden plays his starters, and they show up, not using cross-country travel as an excuse to the take the weekend off, Tampa Bay wins and covers. We're confident Gruden and his team will be prepared and play hard.
Take Tampa Bay.
DENVER AT SAN DIEGO
Line: Chargers -8.5
Over/Under: 47
Although they don't really have anything to play for, look for the Chargers to stay focused and keep the momentum rolling. They'll have success running the ball vs. a poor Bronco stop unit, and their front seven will win the battle vs. the Denver O-line. That will seal a solid home win.
Take the Chargers.
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