It's baaaaack! Yes the NBA '3rd in 4' is alive and well

meestermike

Well-known member
To re-affirm everyone's idea of what the 3rd in 4 situation play is:
- When a road\away team plays their 3rd game in 4 nights.
- The 3rd game is an away/road game.
- The team must be playing this 3rd game as a Back to Back (B to B) game. Their most recent previous game was played either at home or away.

Your play is against the road team & on the home team SU (straight up) and/or ATS if you choose in this situation.

The premise is that the team must travel to the next game site directly after playing the immediate day\night before.

This link is to my google spreadsheet that I use to layout and track the profile. Please review the criteria and notes tab before diving into the fray.

NBA '3rd in 4' Profile

POINTS TO PONDER...
Is the travelling team tired (off an OT or bad beat game)?
Did the travelling team team win or lose the most recently played game?
Did the travelling team team blowout win or lose the most recently played game (i.e. by more than 10 points for NBA; 3 or more goals in NHL)?
Did the travelling team team rest a strong (elite) player and/or is\are there any significant injury(s) from their most recently played game?
Did the AW team get delayed leaving their previous game location; Got in very late to the city in which they will be playing?
Does the travelling team have a positive\negative B to B current YTD record?
Does the travelling team have a poor road win % (AVG <.475)?
Is the travelling team now playing a home team that has a poor home win % (AVG <.500)?
Is the Home team also playing a B to B game?
Did the home team have to also travel back home from a previous game?
Be cautious of look ahead scenarios on both sides.

Here's the meaning of 3rd in 4 criteria abbreviations:
ARAA = Away Rest Away Away
ARHA = Away Rest Home Away
HRAA = Home Rest Away Away
HRHA = Home Rest Home Away

Thanks mainly to Covid19, I backed off of this situational play back in February 2020 in both the NBA and NHL.

Over the years; basically since 2001 for me, this situational play has been a moderate money maker in both NHL and NBA. Some seasons it is above average, some below average. Some big home favorites have lost SU and when this happens it will give you a gut punch. Home dogs also prevail and give yu a very cordial $$$ return.

My advice, set up a separate portion of your bankroll for this situational play. Proportion it so you can follow the results and evaluate your plays. Also, never be afraid to PASS.

Some teams have more situations of 3rd in 4 games scheduled this season than others. Also some situations happen amidst extended road trips (more than 2 games) (ARAA), others are (ARHA), some others show up as (HRAA), and finally others are one offs after 2 home games (HRHA).

*** Note: I tried the alternative argument of teams that are playing 3 games in 4 nights when at home for the 3rd game (ARAH,ARHH,HRHH,HRAH); which meant wagering on the ROAD team SU\ATS, but found little to no long term value over time.

*** Note: Past results do not guarantee future returns but they form a part of the final choice analysis. Yeah, just like the stock market or mutual funds.
 

meestermike

Well-known member
Hope you cashed last night on the OKC Thunder as a +195 Home


SU WIN and a nice ATS win as well.

ATL is at Washington tonite. Yep-per another +145 Home
 

meestermike

Well-known member
Washington pays off +145 SU

Dallas travels to Denver tonite.

Denver is -125 to -135 ML HM Fav (-2 -104 to -112)

Will the Mile High city prevail?
Just watch out for whether or not Nikola Jokic will play tonite because Denver is a180 degree poorer difference without him.
 

meestermike

Well-known member
Thx guys. It's off to a great start.

3 games scheduled tonight
10/30/21 ORL MAGIC AT DETROIT ~ A 1-5 team against an 0-4 rested HM team. *** Make sure you shop for the best HM ML $$$
10/30/21 TOR RAPTORS AT INDIANA ~ TOR off a 1 pt. win against ORL but IND is looking for revenge for 18 pt. loss in TOR on 10/27
10/30/21 CLE CAVALIERS AT PHOENIX ~ CLE playing GM 4 of a 5 GM road trip. L2 opp ~ LAL & LAC
 

meestermike

Well-known member
2-1 yesterday as the Pacers come up (-4) points short of a win.

2 games today
10/31/21 DET PISTONS AT BROOKLYN ARHA ~ Detroit off their 1st win of this season; Nets (5th HM game of 6) have been struggling but are better than this.
Net's ML (-774) is too steep for me to play but I'll be on the ATS -12 1.98 (-102) for a unit.
Also going to jump on the UN 214 +101 for a unit

10/31/21 UTAH JAZZ AT MILWAUKEE ARAA ~ MIL are on a B to B off a (-9) pt HM loss last night to the Spurs. They are a (+2 -105) (+115 ML) HM dog tonite hosting the Jazz.
Utah lost their 1st GM of the season (99-107) last night in Chicago
I'm playing the Bucks (ML +116) & ATS +2 1.97 (-103) for a unit each.
 

meestermike

Well-known member
Been offline this past week but still plugging away.
Another big home dog today as Utah glides into the fantasy town of Orlando. Can Magic happen again. On the 🐕 ML at +545 and the ATS +12 1.95 (-105)
NBL
 

Kappa

Well-known member
Been offline this past week but still plugging away.
Another big home dog today as Utah glides into the fantasy town of Orlando. Can Magic happen again. On the 🐕 ML at +545 and the ATS +12 1.95 (-105)
NBL
Great hit on the ML +545 MM amazing job. Tired legs in the 4th as the Jazz faded away and were out scored by 17 to seal the 7 point SU win!! Thanks for posting as I grabbed the +11.
 

Kappa

Well-known member
Another 4th quarter collapse by a team playing 3 in 4 woo hoo this time it was the Nets being outscored by the Bulls 42-17 #tiredlegs #3in4 #back2backroadie good stuff MM Bulls +1 cashes easily.
 

meestermike

Well-known member
There's (4) games tonight on tap. Wish I had access to solid SDQL but that's a task in progress at the moment. A very generous intuitive friend\associate is ferociously working to bring it back to full fruition, but these things take quality time to develop.
MEM at NO 2.58 (+158) +4.5 1.943 (+4.5 -106) Not really sure about a 1-9 team but I can🤞
DET at TOR 1.233 (-425) -9.5 1.97 (-103) Pistons scored just 78 pts last night in Cleveland
BOS at CLE 2.10 (+110) +2 1.909 (+2 -110) Cavs on a rare home B to B so tread lightly
MIN at LAC 1.371 (-265) -7 1.943 (-7 -108) T-Wolves got a huge blowout 107-83 victory last night in HOLLYWOOD against the LAL.
MIN also playing their 4th AW GM in 6 days

Wager wisely and enjoy the ride.
 
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meestermike

Well-known member
Upcoming this week...
11/15/21 CHI BULLS AT LA LAKERS ARAA
11/15/21 DEN NUGGETS AT DALLAS HRHA
11/15/21 HOU ROCKETS AT MEMPHIS HRHA
11/15/21 PHX SUNS AT MINNESOTA ARAA
11/18/21 WAS WIZARDS AT MIAMI HRAA
11/19/21 GS WARRIORS AT DETROIT ARAA
11/19/21 LA CLIPPERS AT NEW ORLEANS HRAA
11/20/21 CHA HORNETS AT ATLANTA HRHA
11/20/21 OKA CITY AT BOSTON HRAA
11/20/21 ORL MAGIC AT MILWAUKEE ARAA
 
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