NFL Notes

icepack6969

Well-known member
Thanksgiving day favorites have been 31-16 ATS and 40-7 straight up. away favorites 16-9 ATS and home favorites 15-7 ATS.



Sunday home favorites on the other hand have only been 44.7%....120-147 ATS, and only 41.5% if a divisional favorite 49-69 ATS
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
NFL

A Sunday away team in week 12 that won their last game but failed to cover the spread.....11-26 ATS....VERSUS Browns, Chargers

A Sunday week 12 team that lost their last game SUATS and are an away favorite this week.....25-10 ATS (+4.1)...................................ON Falcons, Panthers
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
FYI look at Dallas ats on thanksgiving, mostly as a favorite. Omit the Cowboys on turkey day and ones winning % increases nicely. Fade the Cowboys as a home favorite and it makes t-day even better.


Day=Thursday and month=11 and t:team=Cowboys and line<0 and season>2009
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
Cowboys on Thanksgiving versus non-divisional foes.......

5-1 ATS (+8.5), 6-0 straight up, 1-5 O/U, average score 26.2-7.7




Away favorites on Thanksgiving, 13-6 ATS (Bills, Bears), when the total is greater than 44 this moves to 9-3 ATS, 12-0 straight up, average score 34.3-19.2......Bills
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
In the NFL 2021....

An away dog whose last game total was greater than their this week opponent's last game total....29-9 ATS....Vikings, Browns, Rams

An away dog whose last game total was greater than 45....37-15 ATS......Raiders, Steelers, Vikings, Rams
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
The Saints will likely be without RB Alvin Kamara, TE Adam Trautman, LT Terron Armstead, G Andrus Peat, and RT Ryan Ramchzk. Once this injury report gets a little more mainstream, I could see this line closing closer to six.
__________________
 

Kappa

Well-known member
Good stuff IP. You happened to dig out the Lions TG record ATS? I’m pretty sure the winner in Lions games on TG day usually covers the spread at a very high rate.
 

Kappa

Well-known member
Good stuff IP. You happened to dig out the Lions TG record ATS? I’m pretty sure the winner in Lions games on TG day usually covers the spread at a very high rate.
Found it! It’s the favourite that does well in Lions games.

The favorite is 15-1-1 ATS in Detroit games on Thanksgiving Day going all the way back to 2004. Hope I didn’t jinx it lol
 

Elite

Active member
Lions have been a laughing stock franchise for a long time and their fans let ownership know it whenever they have the guts to show up for a public appearance, not sure if anyone saw the week three halftime ceremony honouring Calvin Johnson when Lions owner Shiela Ford Hamp tried to say a few words she was loudly booed so that you couldn’t hear a word she said lol. It’s not surprising to see that 15-1 record Kappa, when we are talking about the Lions who were the dog in most of those.
 

Kappa

Well-known member
Lions have been a laughing stock franchise for a long time and their fans let ownership know it whenever they have the guts to show up for a public appearance, not sure if anyone saw the week three halftime ceremony honouring Calvin Johnson when Lions owner Shiela Ford Hamp tried to say a few words she was loudly booed so that you couldn’t hear a word she said lol. It’s not surprising to see that 15-1 record Kappa, when we are talking about the Lions who were the dog in most of those.
Yes I remember a couple of times I foolishly took the Lions against Rodgers and GB and also against Peyton and Indy. Took a while for me to realize to always fade the Lions on TG day if they are a dog. Bears aren’t any better this year and asking them to be a road chalk is very scary. But I don’t want to be watching this game and 5 minutes in regretting taking the Lions + the points. I’ll follow the fav trend in their games until they prove me wrong.
 

Elite

Active member
If Goff is playing like has been reported Detroit is the play because Boyle looked like a college QB last week and we are talking about the Bears as the fav here, not exactly inspiring. Lions want to win a game this might be the one. I’ll play them but I have another one on my radar.
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
CC maybe this will help.

Adam Pullen - Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars


“The NFL is the NFL, and it’s tradition to bet Thanksgiving football. I think you’ll actually see the handle as big as ever despite the matchups. A few weeks ago, Bills at Saints looked to be a great one and it still might be, but the Saints are banged up a little bit. Whenever you have Dallas playing on Thanksgiving, that’s always a boost. It would help to have a marquee game, but as long as the NFL is playing everything is marquee it seems, even Bears-Lions.”


Bears (-3) at Lions

Bears 56% of Tickets ... Lions 64% of Money


Raiders at Cowboys (-7.5)

Cowboys 69% of Tickets & 63% of Money


Bills (-6) at Saints

Bills 79% of Tickets & 85% of Money
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
From another site, take it for what it's worth.

Matt Nagy met with Chicago Bears ownership before Tuesday;s 2nd walk through, sources say, and later cancelled the rest of the day's meetings!
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
The Bears are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against the Lions, are 4-1 against the number in their last five games against an opponent with a losing record and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games when facing an opponent with a losing home record. On the other side, the Lions are 3-14 against the spread in their last 17 games in Week 12, are 5-12-1 against the number in their last 18 games played in November and are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following an ATS win.
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
Chicago (3-7) @ Detroit (0-9-1)
— QB Fields (ribs) got KO’d Sunday vs Ravens. Check status.
— Dalton started in Weeks 1-2; he was 11-23/201 passing Sunday.
— Bears lost last five games (1-4 ATS), last two by 2-3 points.
— Last four games, Chicago was outscored 64-19 in first half.
— Bears are 1-4 SU on road this year, winning in Las Vegas.
— Last five games, Bears are minus-7 in turnovers.
— Bears are 3-1-1 ATS last five games as road favorites.
— Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Chicago games.
— Lions lost last four Thanksgiving games (0-4 ATS)
— Detroit is winless, but is 6-4 ATS (3-1 last four).
— Last seven games, Lions were outscored 104-32 in first half.
— Detroit has seven TD’s on its last 64 drives.
— Detroit threw for 77-77 yards in last two games. Not good.
— Goff missed LW with oblique injury (check status)
— Detroit’s backup QB is Boyle; LW was his first NFL start.
— Seven of last eight Detroit games stayed under the total.
— Last 11 years, Detroit is 12-24-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Lions have three losses by 3 or fewer points.
 
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