NFL NOTES

icepack6969

Well-known member
This is stuff I find and share with you guys, it's copy and paste.:unsure:



1) Away dogs in the first week of the playoffs whose present opponent had a worse or equal record last season have been 18-3 ATS...ON Vegas, 49ers

2) Away dogs in the first week of the plaoffs whose opponent had a losing record last season....13-2 ATS....ON Raiders, 49ers

Last season Vegas won 8 and Bengals won 4 games.

Last season Cowboys won 6 and 49ers won 6 games.

Combined, those two angles have been 11-0 ATS (+11.1), 9-2 straight up (+6.9) and 2-9 o/u (-7.4).


Wildcard round home favorites of greater than 8 points have 9-1 ATS (+6.0), 10-0 straight up (+16.0) and 3-7 o/u (-6.2)....ON Chiefs, Bucs

All wildcard round home favorites of less than 8 points...17-32 ATS.....VERSUS Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Rams

Home favorites of less than 8 on Saturday......11-14-2 ATS

Home favorites of less than 8 on Sunday........6-18 ATS.........VERSUS Cowboys

Away dogs when their previous game was went to overtime in the first game of the playoffs have been 4-0-1 ATS (+9.0), 3-2 straight up (+5.0) the past 20 years, so it doesn't seem to have negatively affected those teams.




On another note, home teams have had a +4.1 points/game margin in the wildcard round in the 20 years my database goes back in time. The average scoring margin for NFL home teams has been +2.5 points/game for the past 30 years in the regular season, so homefield has been worth an extra 1.6 points in the playoffs.

This regular season margin has steadily declined, as in the last 10 years this has dropped to an average of +2.1 points/game, and it has been +1.5 points/game in the last five years. Sagarin this year rated home field advantage to be only +0.7 points/game.

Home field has traditionally been worth more in the playoffs.

Surprisingly to me, in playoff games the average score has been +2.6 points more than in the average regular season game...perhaps because we don't see many dreadful offenses. (Here's looking at you NYG.)


I want to correct something....waaay earlier in this conversation I mentioned that Sagarin has home field to be worth .7 points this season in the NFL.

That was not correct,...he has home field in the regular season worth 1.46 points this season, still off a point from where it was 10 years or so years ago.

in re-checking, in wildcard games the home team has been 43-38 straight up, winning by an average of 2 points/game, which means that bigger home margins tend to happen in games after the wildcard round bringing the average home margin in total to 4.4 points/game in the totality of conference playoff games.

Results/margin of home team in wildcard round.......43-38 straight-up (+2.0)

Results/margin of home team AFTER WILDCARD game (non-Super Bowl) 83-37 straight up (+6.2)




The blowouts tend to happen after wildcard week.



I did a deep dive into it. We've already established that wildcard favorites of more than 8 tend to do really well....so, I eliminated those games with a line of more than eight.

Teams with the better record their last 4 games that are home favorites of less than 8 points in the wildcard round have been 8-16 ATS...... 6-14 ATS if they had the better record their last six games...using gimmethedog.

game number=17 and tS(W, N=6)>oS(W, N=6) and HF and playoffs=1 and o:rest<8 and rest<8 and line>-8

Let's look at how teams that are playing each other have done their previous four games and if there is a tie, we'll go back 6 games, ONLY calculating games where the line is less than 8.

1) Vegas won 3 out of 4, 4 out of their last six, Bengals 3 out of their last 4, 3 out of their last 6.....away dogs with the better last six game record have been 8-6 ATS (+2.0), 6-8 straight up (-2.0) and 8-6 o/u (+2.0) when the line is less than eight.

2) Patriots won 1 out of their last 4, Buffalo won their last four, BE AWARE that home favorites that have won their last four games are only 2-9 ATS in the wildcard round winning only 6 out of 11 straight up.

3) 49ers won 3 out of their last four and four of their last six.....Cowboys won 3 of four and five of their last six.....those away dogs that won less games out of their last six games have been 14-6-1 ATS (+3.6), 9-12 straight up (-1.0) and 9-12 o/u (+3.0)

4) Cardinals won only 1 out of their last 3 and 2 out of their last six....Rams won three of last four and 5 of last six.....teams that have won 2 or more games more out of their past six games than their present opponent have only been 2-9-1 ATS as home favorites in the wildcard round if the line is less than 8.


Wildcard games with a line of less than 8.

An away dog <8 versus a team that made the playoffs last season 14-10 ATS.....Pats, Cards........if our away dog didn't make the playoffs LY this moves 4-5-1 ATS.

An away dog <8 versus a team that didn't make the playoffs the previous season 18-7 ATS.....Raiders, 49ers....if our away dog didn't make the playoffs either....12-5-1 ATS
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
There are four wildcard round home favorites that have won 5 out of their last six games....the Rams, Cowboys, Bucs and Chiefs.

The past results of wildcard home favorites winning exactly five out of their last six?

If the line has been more than 8.....2-0 ATS winning by an average of 23 points....... Bucs, Chiefs

If the line has been less than 8.....3-13-1 ATS (-5.1), 9-8 straight up (+0.5)........Rams, Cowboys



An away wildcard dog of less than 8 points playing a divisional rival..............9-1 ATS (+8.6), 6-4 straight up (+3.8)......Cardinals, Patriots

AD and playoffs=1 and game number=17 and o:rest<8 and line<8 and DIV
Query text calculations from gimmethedog


Plays:
*** Raiders +6'
*** 49ers +3
** Patriots +4, -105



Here's an angle that is relevant for next week.
The two number one seeds, the Titans and Packers, will be home favorites next week. Green Bay has gone unbeaten at home this season and the Titans have lost two at home. In the last 20 years, how have teams performed in those situations?
1) Unbeaten home favorites (Packers) have been 9-17 ATS (-5.1) in their first playoff game, and only 15-11 straight up (+1.5)....this moves to 7-12 ATS (-2.7) and 12-7 straight up (+3.7) if they have had a bye.
2) Twice beaten home favorites (Titans) have been 17-23 ATS (-0.3) and 26-16 straight up (+5.8).....9-11 ATS (+2.0) and 16-5 straight up (+9.6) if they have had a bye.
Based on past history it looks more likely that the Titans will perform well enough to cover and even then it doesn't look great.
Round 2 of the playoffs is very tough historically to find an angle,....perhaps the gut-feel and eye-test handicappers do better in this round. A small edge can be found in playing on away dogs who won on the road last week in the playoffs...those away dogs have been 21-16 ATS, 13-6 ATS if they allowed greater than 14 points in their wildcard round away win and only 8-10 ATS if they allowed 14 points or less.
Teams in a second round playoff game off a home playoff win of greater than 14 points that are now an away dog have been 13-8 ATS.
Away playoff dogs in the second round that have the higher per game scoring average than their present opponent have been 16-6-2 (+3.2) and 10-14 straight up (-1.8)
Away playoff dogs in the second round that had the greater scoring margin their previous game than their present opponent have been 27-17 ATS, 25-14 ATS if their opponent is off a bye....this will fit the opponent of Green Bay as they lost last week and it could also fit Tennessee as the Titans won by only three points.



Playoff seeding and team scoring average per game listed below....number one seed plays the lowest remaining seed in round two.

1) Green Bay 26.5

2) Tampa Bay 30.1

3) Dallas 31.2

4) LA 27.1

5) AZ 26.4

6) San Fran 25.1

7) Philly 26.1




1) Titans 24.6

2) KC 28.1

3) Buffalo 28.4

4) Cinci 27.1

5) Vegas 22.0

6) NE 27.2

7) Pitt 20.2

In the first two playoff rounds when the away dog has the higher per game scoring average, they've been 23-10 ATS.

Buffalo, Cinci and NE would be live dogs in round 2 if they were to advance.

Dallas and the Rams would both be likely indicated plays as well.



Here is a further wildcard weekend angle to ponder.....

Away dogs of less the eight points on wildcard weekend have been 32-17 ATS

If our away dog of less than 8.....

1) Lost both of their last two road games.....6-0 ATS (+9.9), 5-1 straight up (+5.9).....Patriots

2) Won both of their last two road games....13-3 ATS (+6.8), 9-7 straight up (+2.9).....Raiders

3) Split their past road games.................13-14 ATS (-1.5), 10-19 straight up (-5.7)....49ers, Cardinals

If our home favorite of less than 8 points.....

4) Won both of their last two home games.....8-20 ATS (-3.4), 15-15 SU (+0.9) ....Bengals, Bills

5) Won one of their past two home games.....6-9 ATS (-1.6), 8-7 SU (+2.6).... Cowboys, Rams
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
Alright, read on another thread that because team X has the season-to-date season turnover ratio advantage over their opponent, team Y, in this playoff game that in all likelihood they will win the turnover battle and the cover the spread in their playoff game.

Does past history back that up?

What does the data say?

There are four games this weekend where the turnover difference is marked....the turnover season-to-date difference is listed below.

1) Vegas 0 Bengals +9

2) Eagles 0 Bucs 10

3) Cowboys 14 49ers -5

4) Cards 12 Rams 2

Wildcard round away dogs, when line is less than 8, with the turnover DISADVANTAGE season-to-date, have been 19-7 ATS, covering by an average of 3 points a game and winning 14 out of 26 times outright. It is a regressive in nature stat, meaning what happened before is likely to regress to the mean. Less important to us as a betting population, the worse turnover prone team going into the game on average won the turnover battle 1.2-1.6.

Note: A positive turnover margin in SDQL below means that the offense committed more turnovers than the defense produced so the more positive the number the worse that team has performed. The more negative the number, the better.

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0 and playoffs=1 and AD and game number=17 and o:game number=17 and line<=8




And, what about an away dog that has the advantage?....how have they done?

The Cardinals have the turnover advantage going into their game with the Rams.

Those teams have only been 12-11 ATS.

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)<0 and playoffs=1 and AD and game number=17 and o:game number=17 and line<=8




And, lastly how has it gone when the line is above 8 with the turnover disadvantage, as is the case with Eagles in their game with the Bucs?

The line of 8 has been the cutoff between heaven and hell for playoff teams in past seasons.....those teams in the Eagles' situation went 1-8 ATS, losing to the spread by almost 6 points/game and losing the game by almost 16 points a game......they have also lost the turnover battle on average by 1.8 -1.0.



tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0 and playoffs=1 and AD and game number=17 and o:game number=17 and line>8
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
WynnBet


Eagles at Buccaneers

WynnBet dropped Tampa Bay from -8.5 to -8 earlier this evening, after opening at -9.5 and dipping to 8.5 by Tuesday.

The Bucs are taking 60% of point-spread tickets, but perhaps surprisingly, spread money is split 50/50, with sharp action continuing to show on the Eagles.

The total tumbled from 49 to 45 by Friday afternoon, in part due to expected foul weather. But that forecast has improved, and the total crept up to 46.

The Over is landing 64% of bets, while 65% of money is on the Under.



49ers at Cowboys

Dallas is nailed to -3 at WynnBet, sticking there all week, with only a couple of juice adjustments.

The Cowboys are currently -3 (-120) while taking 54% of tickets, and the 49ers are nabbing 57% of money.

The total rose from 49.5 to 51 by Monday night and stuck there, with 63% of tickets / 73% of money on the Over.



Steelers at Chiefs

WynnBet pegged Kansas City as 13-point chalk at -105 to open, then spent much of the week at -12.5, where the number sits tonight.

Ticket count is almost dead even, with a slight nod to the Chiefs, and K.C. is bagging 61% of money.

The total opened at 46.5 and is now 46.

61% of bets on the Over ... 59% of cash on the Under.



Monday

Cardinals at Rams

Los Angeles opened -4.5 at WynnBet and by Monday dipped to -4, where the line remained the rest of the week.

Arizona is actually taking a modest majority of point-spread tickets and money, at 55% and 54%, respectively.

The total inched from 50.5 to 50 Tuesday and hasn’t budged since, with 65% of tickets on the Over ... 73% of money on the Under.
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
BetMGM

"Gronk to score first TD liability is as big as we have ever had for this bet type in any match other than a Super Bowl. Tight end scored first TD in both games yesterday."

BetMGM ... (Nationally)


PHI-TB Most-Bet Props

Gronkowski to score 1st touchdown (+750)
Gronkowski to score anytime touchdown (+110)
Gronkowski over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)


SF-DAL Most-Bet Props

Elliott to score 1st touchdown (+700)
Samuel to score anytime touchdown (+100)
Samuel over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)


PIT-KC Most-Bet Props

Kelce to score 1st touchdown (+600)
Kelce to score anytime TD (-110)
Roethlisberger Over 226.5 pass yds (-110)
 
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