Four-Pack

By Ben Burns

I'm currently away from home so don't have access to my YTD total here. However, I'll make sure to catch up next week. In the meantime, I've got four plays from this week's card. As always, good luck!

NHL

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs. Atlanta Thrashers

Game Time: 1/17/2008 7:05:00 PM

Prediction: under

Reason: Led by sniper Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers aren't normally thought of as a "defensive" team. However, they've actually been playing rather well at that end of the ice recently. In fact, heading into Tuesday's clash with Detroit, the Thrashers have seen the "under" go 3-0 their last three games. The Canadiens saw their streak of high-scoring games come to an end when they managed only one goal, en route to a 4-1 loss, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The Canadiens power play, which had been clicking, produced just one goal on eight opportunities. That goal came in the third period with the Rangers leading 4-0. Note that Montreal also came up empty on two 5-on-3 advantages totaling 2:44 in time. Looking at the series history and we find that both this season's meeting produced five combined goals. Looking back further and we find the "under" at an impressive 10-1-1 the last dozen times that these teams faced each other. Look for another low-scoring affair on Thursday.

NBA

Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns

Game Time: 1/18/2008 9:05:00 PM

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

Reason: The Suns are certainly capable of blowing out the T-Wolves. After all, Phoenix ranks among the NBA's best teams while Minnesota has the worst record in the entire league. However, that difference in talent will already be reflected in the line and the "situation" favors the visitors, who haven't played since Tuesday. The Suns played on Tuesday too. They also played last night though. That was no "ordinary" game either. Indeed, it was a late road contest (broadcast nationally on TNT) vs. their primary division rivals, the Lakers. Note that the two teams are currently "neck and neck" for first place in the Pacific. Additionally, note that the Suns are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they played the second of back to back games. The first of those three pointspread defeats came against these same T-Wolves, at Minnesota on 12/8. Listed as double-digit underdogs, the T-Wolves limited their high-flying guests to just 93 points, en route to a 100-93 victory. Looking back further and we find that the Suns are just 7-13 ATS since the beginning of 2007, when playing the second of back to back games. Let's take the generous points with the well-rested visitors.

NHL

Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders

Game Time: 1/19/2008 7:05:00 PM

Prediction: New York Islanders

Reason: These teams faced each other twice at Philadelphia back in the fall. The Flyers were playing very well at the time and won both meetings. However, the Flyers have come back to earth since then and they've also lost their last two games here on Long Island. While the Flyers have cooled off slightly since their sizzling start, the Islanders begin the week by playing their best hockey in quite some time. In fact, heading into Tuesday's game at Montreal, they've lost just once in regulation during their last 11 games, going 7-1-3 during that stretch. That includes a 3-1 win at Ottawa on Sunday at the Scotiabank Place. That was the Isles first win in Canada's capital since March of 2003 and they had been just 2-15-4 there since 1996-97. In other words, Ted Nolan has this team playing very well. Speaking of Nolan, the Isles' coach knows how important this game is. That's due to the earlier losses at Philadelphia but also because these teams are very close to each other in the Atlantic Division standings. Look for home ice to be the difference as the Isles continue their recent strong play and avenge the earlier losses.

NFL

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

Game Time: 1/20/2008 3:00:00 PM

Prediction: New England Patriots

Much has changed since these teams faced each other in last year's playoffs. At that time, the Chargers were healthy, rested and playing in sunny southern California. They also had the best record during the regular season. This season, it's the Patriots which are healthy and which finished with the best record in the league. Meanwhile, the Chargers come off back to back hard-fought wins and now must travel to frigid Foxboro. While they'll likely have Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates in the lineup, their three most important offensive players are all currently banged-up. The Patriots won the playoff game at San Diego last season and they also crushed the Chargers (38-14) here at New England during this year's regular season. Look for another blowout victory on Sunday afternoon, as the Patriots advance to another Super Bowl and the Chargers fall to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as double-digit underdogs.

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