By Greg Dempson
Bodog – Cleveland Indians -130 vs Cincinnati Reds +120 Total 8.5 O+100/U-120
The Reds send Tim Adleman to the mound in the final game of this Inter–League four game series and I’m hoping Adleman pitches like he did in his last start vs. the Phillies when he gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings.
In his three starts prior to the Philadelphia game, Adleman went 1-1 with an ERA of 3.38 on 15 hits and 6 runs in 16 innings. He averages 5.3 innings per start so I’m hoping the Reds’ bullpen comes into play with my selection on the total.
Opposing Adelman on the mound will be Josh Tomlin who is 5–0 with an ERA of 3.82 along with a WHIP of 1.076. He allowed 4 hits and 3 earned in 6.3 innings vs. the Twins in last Friday’s 7–6 victory. Tomlin’s last three starts sailed over the posted totals plus he’s 5–1 to the over and allowed 7 homers this season.
The Great American Ball Park is not a big venue and the weather conditions are favorable. Tomlin’s lifetime ERA vs. the Reds is 5.32, (WHIP 1.500,) but he hasn’t faced the Reds since August 5, 2014. On Cincinnati’s current roster, Joey Votto is 2 for 8 with a double and a home run vs. him while Zack Cozart is 5 for 8 with a double and triple and Brandon Phillips is 3 for 8 including a home run.
Reds–Bull
· Cincinnati’s bullpen is an embarrassment compounded by the fact their starters average slightly more than 5 innings per start. In 40 games their starters have pitched a combined 205 innings. Once the bullpen enters the game it’s “Game Over!” Their available bullpen for tonight’s contest has an ERA of 5.34 with a WHIP of 1.510.
· Cleveland’s bullpen has allowed 9 earned runs and 19 hits in 18 innings and tonight’s available relievers have an ERA of 3.18, (WHIP = 1.210) while allowing 72 hits in 81 innings.
· Cincinnati is 10–02 to the over this season vs. a teams’ bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better with a combined score of 11.8 runs per game.
· Cleveland is 48–31 to the over vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game during the last two seasons with an average of 9.1 runs per game.
· The Reds are 13–08 to the over at home this season as well as 18–10 to the over vs. righties.
· The Indians are 16–09 to the over vs. righties this season and they’re averaging 7.1 RPG in their last seven contests.
· The past two seasons Cincinnati is 11–0 to the over when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 8 or more runs with an average combined score of 12.3 runs per game.
· Cleveland/Tomlin is 13–02 to the over when he’s favored between –100 to –150 with an average combined score of 9.5 runs per game plus Tomlin/Team is also 9–0 to the over the past two seasons as a favorite of –110 or more averaging 10.8 combine runs per game.
· The past two seasons the Reds are 34–17 to the over as a home underdog of +100 or higher with a combined score of 9.4 RPG.
· The Indians are 11–4–01 to the over in their last 16 Inter–League games.
· Cincinnati is 10–03–02 to the over in their last 15 home games.
· Home plate umpire Ryan Blakney has 7 overs vs. 3 unders in his last 10 when calling balls and strikes.
MLB Pick
My Every Edge selection for this evening is for the Indians and Reds to sail over the total of 8 runs at –110.