By Greg Dempson
Bovada; Cincinnati Reds +120 at Milwaukee Brewers -140 Total 9.5 O/U-115
If all goes well the fans at Miller Park won’t have to wait until dark to see the fireworks in this 4:10 ET start. The Reds send Alfredo Simon to the mound. In his three road starts he has lasted a 9 combined innings with an ERA of 18.0 and a WHIP of 3.556 and I note the Brewers are 25–11–02 to the over when they face a starting pitcher who has a WHIP higher than 1.300.
When factoring in a bullpen that has a road ERA of 7.17 this could be a long drawn out affair. The Brewers hand the ball to Chase Anderson with Chase being the operative word as he’s been chased after 5.5 innings in 4 games while allowing 24 hits in 22 innings including 6 home runs, 9 walks and 17 strikeouts.
Around the Diamonds
· The Reds average 5.1 RPG in day games, their highest this season and they’re 8–5 to the over.
· The Brewers are 10–06 to the over in day games.
· Cincinnati is 21–11 to the over vs. right handed starters this season
· Milwaukee is 20–08 to the over in home games after batting .240 or worse during a 20 game span the last two seasons.
· The two teams are 5–1 to the over this season.
· Simon’s 8–3 to the over in his last 11 road games while the Reds “over” achieve vs. teams with a losing record going 17–06 to the over.
· Anderson is 3–1 to the over in his four home starts this season.
· The Brewers are 12–03 to the over when playing against a team with a win percentage 38% the last two seasons.
MLB Pick
My Every Edge selection for this afternoon is a split wager on the total. I’m on the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers over 9.0 runs –135 for ½-unit and the over at 9.5 –105 for ½-unit averaging the split wager combined juice down to –120.
For additional winning selections and systems, visit www.gregdempson.com.