Bills leading rusher LeSean McCoy is looking to get Shady in Seattle after a week off
The Bills and Seahawks are on tap for the Week 9 finale as Buffalo looks to snap a two-game losing streak. Seattle also lost last week in New Orleans but the Hawks are 3-0 at home this year and 34-5 SU (25-14 ATS) at the Clink since 2012.
WEEK 9 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Buffalo hasn’t been a good team on Monday Night Football over the years, but then again they weren’t given very many chances. Since November, 1997, Buffalo is 2-6 SU and 4-3-1 ATS with six of eight games going over the total. QB Tyrod Taylor has seen Monday action twice in his five-year career, garbage time against the Bengals back when he was Joe Flacco’s backup (2012), and then last year vs. New England. It was a sloppy loss to the undefeated Patriots and the game’s biggest storyline was the ‘Rex vs. Bill’ thing.
No one cares whether or not Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan shake hands, hug or shotgun a beer after tonight’s game. This is about establishing a rhythm on offense, pounding the football and playing tough, physical defense. Shady McCoy (hamstring) is expected to start with Mike Gillislee handling backup. DT Marcell Dareus (groin) is out but the rest of the D is in decent shape.
Seattle’s front seven is missing its leading tackler, DE Michael Bennett (24 tackles, 3 sacks) and the backend is still without Kam Chancellor, who has been out since Week 4. The Seahawks O-Line is relatively healthy but they rank 26th in run blocking and 10th in pass protection. QB Russell Wilson’s stats have taken a nosedive this year but RB Christine Michael and all of Wilson’s top targets are available.
The Seahawks are in the bottom third of NFL teams for red zone efficiency, converting just 47.6% of chances compared to last year’s average of 55.6%. Teams with this much trouble scoring are rarely favored by such a large spread but the Hawks have built a reputation at home. Everyone has become so accustomed to them winning that books need to prop up the line to attract equal action and it looks like Bills bettors are hitting the window this morning, buying it off the key number.
Big home faves with a weak red zone are 36-12 SU (75%) but only 17-30-1 ATS, a 64% fade. It’s going to be tough for Seattle to cover this number but I can see both these teams doing some scoring. The 15 non-conference games in this system went 10-5 O/U and Monday night road teams that average more than 5.0 rushing yards per carry are on a 6-0-1 O/U run.
Each of these teams rank top 10 for penalty yardage and that’s been leading to a high number of overs lately. Totals of 43 or more are 20-9 O/U with the past 19 Monday games going 13-6 O/U. We hit our Week 9 total in the Saints and Niners game with no sweat yesterday. This one might be a tougher battle but for my Monday night play I’m sticking with the over.
EveryEdge Prediction: Bills at Seahawks OVER 43 points