Texans running back Lamar Miller will need a huge night if Houston looks to upset the Broncos
The Houston Texans are in Denver Monday for their second-straight marquee game. Houston took down the Colts in overtime last Sunday night but the Texans are 0-2 on the road this season with losses at New England and Minnesota. The big storyline for this matchup is former Bronco QB Brock Osweiler’s return to the city where he spent the first four years of his career.
WEEK 7 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Odds: Broncos -8 and O/U 40.5
The ATS line for this game looked like it was on its way to -10 before books started to peel back on gameday. Big home faves have had a great run in primetime this year going 6-3 ATS, and the common thread among losers has been offensive inefficiency.
Think about it. Since New England upset Arizona 23-21 in Week 1, not one primetime road dog getting more than a field goal has cracked 17 points. The road teams in those eight games have averaged just 11.8 points (2-6 O/U) and it explains why Houston’s team total is listed from 14.5 to 16, depending on juice.
Osweiler has shown flashes of brilliance during some of Houston’s home wins this year, including last week when he put together back-to-back touchdown drives in the final few minutes before setting up the game winning field goal. But no one is going to mistake the Colts defense for this demolition crew in Denver.
The Texans rushed for 158 yards against the Colts and they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS as road dogs off a home fave win where the ground game broke out. The league record for an average offense in this spot is 90-76-6 ATS (any line) but dogs of more than +7 points are 8-15 ATS. Since 2010, touchdown-plus road dogs are just 1-10 SU/ATS after 150-plus rushing yards in a home fave win.
TEXANS, BRONCOS PREDICTION
We don’t want to take too much away from Houston’s defense. They’ve held themselves together since losing JJ Watt and should make for tough competition in home games and divisional matchups down the stretch. If this offense gives up sacks and turnovers, and fails to convert on third downs (they were 1 of 13 in Minnesota), the D is inevitably going to be left out on the field to wilt. Denver is averaging 29:50 time of possession at home this year and the Texans averaged just under 27 minutes in their two road losses. I’m expecting a good fight early and played this game to stay under in the first-half.