By Greg Dempson
The ball tips at 9:05 ET in this pivotal fourth game in this series. Is it a “must win” scenario for Golden State? Well, if they lose and trail three games to one, in order to repeat as champions, winning three consecutive games is a daunting task.
The Golden State Warriors are 12–0 this season following a straight up loss. In their quest to win the title last season the Warriors trailed 2 games to 1 twice in the post season before eventually defeating the Cavaliers.
In tonight’s game with the line anywhere from –1 up to –1.5 at some books, a straight up win should equate to a cover for the visitor. The juice on the money line is –125 and –120.
I expect a better overall effort from the defending champions especially Draymond Green as he was held to 6 points on 1 of 9 shooting. Green bounced back after a poor Game 3 in their first round loss to the Rockets as he scored 18 points as well as grabbing 8 rebounds and 6 assists in a 121–94 victory in game 4.
The Thunder went to the foul line 37 time making 33 of them while the Warriors attempted only 25 while making 19. These disparities have a tendency to even out and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Warriors attempt more free throws this evening.
All Systems Go
· Play against home underdogs after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This system is 5 – 1 ATS this season as well as
· Play on any team when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 or more points following an upset loss by 15 or more points as a favorite. This system is 42–16 = 72% ATS when backing the Warriors.
· Play against home teams where the line is + or –3 points after an upset win as an underdog and playing against an opponent off a road loss. This system is 7–2 ATS this season as well as 39–12 ATS the past three seasons and 63–26 = 71% the past five seasons.
NBA Pick
I believe the Warriors bounce back tonight and I played them on the money line at –120 as my Every Edge game of the night.
For additional winning systems and selections visit my web site, www.gregdempson.com.