NBA Pick: Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics Game 7

Pinnacle Odds: Washington Wizards +5 at Boston Celtics -5 Total 210.5

by Greg Dempson

At the end of the movie, “The Wizard of Oz,” Dorothy says, “There’s no place like home!” The Washington Wizards are hoping such is not the case… but home court has held true through the first six games in this series with all the games being blow-outs with the exception of game six, a one point Wizards win, (92-91,) with that final score has being the lowest scoring game in this playoff series.

Washington certainly has their work cut out for them as Boston is not only 8-0 straight up but also 8-0 ATS as a Gardens host the past three seasons. In game 2 at the Gardens, Thomas tallied 53 points, since then he’s averaging 19.3 points on 39% shooting in four games. Bradley has contributed the past two games with 29 points in Game 5 and 27 in Game 6 going 22 of 37 from the floor in the last two contests.

Boston’s team total for this game is 107 points, in their last five home games vs. the Wizards they have scored, 117, 110, 123, 129 and 123 in their last game as the host.
Washington is led by John Wall who is averaging 26.3 PPG in the series along with 10.2 assists per game.

Beal chipped in with 33 in game 6 but his success rate from beyond the arc hasn’t been as successful at 26.3%. Washington were much stronger at home than on the road this season and their straight up road record 20-27, (20-26-01 ATS,) doesn’t bode well for them advancing to face the number one seeded Cavaliers. Washington was money in your account if you wagered on the over when they were away from home as they were 31-16 to the over averaging 107.9 PPG while allowing an average of 110.2 PPG.

Angling Over the Total

· Washington is 37-17 to the OVER after one or more consecutive wins this season.
· Boston is 16-6 to the OVER in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season.
· The Wizards are 27-13 to the OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less the last two seasons.
· The Celtics are 20-8 to the OVER this season when at home and playing against a poor foul drawing team that attempts 24 or less free throws per game.

Over Coached

· Wizards coach Brooks is 88-47 to the OVER and +36.30-units after a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached.
· Celtics coach Stevens is 24-7 to the OVER and +16.30-units in home games after a loss by 6 points or less

79% First Half System

· After losing three out of their last four games, play on home favorites in the first half that are winning between 60% to 75% of their games when playing an opponent that’s winning between 51% to 60% of their games. This system is 30-08 = 79% ATS the past five seasons when playing against the Wizards. in Review
· My last selection here at Everyedge lost and my season long record is 17-20-1.

NBA Pick

I offer up the following opinion for tonight’s game. Boston in the first half at -2.5, the Celtics at -5 or less for the full game and the game to sail over the total of 209.5 points.