NBA Playoff Picks: Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

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The Heat are attracting serious money from bettors in game 4 but the Spurs have a clear edge on home court

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The Miami Heat will try and rebound from an epic disaster in game 3 and according to a large majority of the sports betting public, this is the Heat’s game to lose.

 

Online sportsbooks opened the betting for Game 4 between the Heat and Spurs at San Antonio -2 and as of Thursday it has swung as far as Miami -1 with Over/Under odds of 186.5, down from 188. The public betting percentages are 69-percent on the new road fave and 50-50 for the total.

 

Tony Parker strained his hamstring in game 3 but is expected to play tonight with Gary Neal ready as the backup. Miami’s ATS results have flip-flopped back and forth for nine-straight contests but going back to their series with the Pacers, Miami is now riding a streak of three consecutive road losses SU/ATS and history does not suggest they will solve that riddle in San Antonio.

 

The “Under” is now 5-1 in the Heat’s last six games and helps explain the downward pressure on the total but if Miami doesn’t do a better job defending the three we look for San Antonio to keep firing from beyond the arc. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

 

LeBron James has been told by a hundred media critics that he needs to be more aggressive driving towards the net and with just six foul shots through the first three games, maybe he’ll take some of that advice but the Spurs will be ready. Throughout these playoffs San Antonio has a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS record on home court and the margins have increased consistently. The first three games in this sample all finished within seven points of the closing spread but in five games since, four of the games ended outside a double-digit margin ATS.

 

NBA PICKS

Unless the total crawls back above 187 points it feels like the value on that play is lost. The winner of game 3 in the Finals has a 30-5 record since 1977 so with a slight lean to the under we’ll put our money on the home side.

Pick: Take the Spurs +1

 

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