NFL Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills 

buffalo bills running back McCoy

LeSean McCoy was one of three Bills to rush for more than 500 yards in 2015

By Pick Sixty Sports

Head coach Rex Ryan bounced back during his first season with the Bills, going from 4-12 SU (his 2014 record with the Jets), to 8-8 in 2015. New York, meanwhile, won 10 games in their first post-Rex season and for the Bills, eight wins was actually a step down from the nine they gained in 2014 under Doug Marrone. As a result, Buffalo’s projected win total has been scaled back a half-game from 2015, when bookmakers posted them at 8.5 Over (-115).


Win-Loss: 8-8 SU and 7-8-1 ATS

Over/Under: 8-8 O/U

Noteworthy: The Bills have a 12-5-1 ATS record vs. the division the past three years; third-best in the league during that span behind the Colts (14-4 ATS) and Broncos (13-5 ATS).

Odds to Win Super Bowl: 50 to 1

Odds to Win Conference: +2,500

Odds to Win Division: +527

Season Win Total Odds: 8 Over (+100) 8 Under (-130)

The Bills offense made a name for themselves by rushing the football, leading the league in total rushing yards (2,432) and yards per carry (4.8). LeSean McCoy flourished in O-Co Greg Roman’s system, rookie RB Karlos Williams led the team with seven TDs and Tyrod Taylor was an X-factor that kept opposing defenses off balance whenever he was in the lineup.

Durability is always a factor with mobile QBs but Taylor had nice accuracy (63.7), so if he picks his spots this could be a breakout year. One problem facing Taylor is a lack of depth at receiver but No. 1 wideout Sammy Watkins is a star who will be looking to build off his first 1,000-yard season.

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Buffalo’s D ranked 31st overall in advanced metrics, struggling to stop the run and get after the opposing QB. From Week 12 out, the Bills allowed 121 rushing yards per game and registered just six sacks. They still went 3-0 at home during that stretch but were swept in three road games, allowing 29 points per contest. The draft focused on defense and DE Shaq Lawson, LB Reggie Ragland and DB Kevon Seymour will help strengthen this unit on all three levels. Lawson, the team’s first round selection (19th overall), had shoulder surgery in May but if all goes well, he should be on the field by October.


The Bills will face each of their AFC East rivals once during the first seven weeks and you may want to consider circling the Week 7 matchup vs. Miami. Buffalo has New England on-deck and since 2009, this exact scenario has produced a record of 25 overs to just 5 unders (83-percent).

Pick Sixty Sports is an online information site for handicappers featuring football content and free picks throughout the season.