By Greg Dempson
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins -4.5
The Dolphins crushed the Titans at Tennessee last week, (38–10,) under interim head coach Dan Campbell. Since 2000, there have been 25 “in season” coaching changes. How many times do you think the replacement coach has won his first two games? Answer at the bottom of View From the 50 Yard Line. In last week’s game vs. Tennessee cheap shots knocked quarterback Marcus Mariota out of the game, Mariota looked good in week 1 and the Titans have lost every game since then.
With Miami’s 4 touchdown victory last week we have some solid line value in this game as I make the Dolphins favored by only 2 points and they are laying more than a field goal in this contest. The Dolphins have been outgained by 213 yards on the ground this season while allowing an average of 160.5 rushing yards in their first four games until last week when they held the Titans to 63 yards rushing.
Adrian Foster is almost back to 100% since returning from his preseason injury. The last time these two met was week 1 in 2012 at Houston and Foster rushed for 2 touchdowns and 79 yards. Add DeAndre Hopkins into the mix, he leads the NFL in receiving yards at 726 and he’s second in receptions with 52 catches. Hopkins has averaged 10 catches and 158 yards in the last three games, and scored twice last Sunday at Jacksonville. Ryan Tannehill has thrown all 7 of his interceptions in the last three starts while Brian Hoyer has tossed 8 touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions in four games.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· Miami is 09–17 their last 26 as a favorite including 02–08 ATS in their last 10 games at Sun Life Stadium when favored, 00–05 ATS in their last five while winning only one game straight up.
· Brian Hoyer is 11–04 ATS when away from home as well as 08–02 ATS when a road underdog.
· Ryan Tannehill is 06–10 ATS as a home favorite.
· The Dolphins are 04–14 ATS off a upset win by 14 or more points as an underdog.
· The Texans are 07–00 straight up vs. the Dolphins.
· The Dolphins are 17–34 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% since 1992.
· The Texans are 09–02 ATS in the second of back-to-back games.
· Play against home favorites after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers and playing against an opponent that’s off a game where they committed no turnovers. This system is 84–42 = 66.7% ATS when playing against the Miami Dolphins.
· Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points winning 40% to 49% of their games when playing against a foe that’s winning 25% to 40% of their games, This system is 06–02 ATS the past three seasons as well as 61–29 = 68% ATS since 1983.
· ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: Interim head coaches have won their first two games only 4 out of 25 times since 2000 while none of those 25 coaches advanced to the post season.
NFL PICK
My EveryEdge NFL Game of the Week is on the Houston Texans at +4.5.
For additional winning information visit www.gregdempson.com.