NFL Picks: St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

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The undefeated vs. the utterly defeated is on tap in this Week 6 matchup between the Green Bay packers vs. the St. Louis Rams. While the Packers will be looking to go to 6-0 on the season, the Rams will be looking for their first win of the season.

A trip to Lambeau to face the defending Super Bowl champs, who are actually playing better football right now than they did last year, is not the best place to land when you’re looking for your first win. I don’t expect the Rams to book a victory this Sunday..or next Sunday (Dallas) for that

However, winning the game and covering the huge pointspread are two entirely different things, as all bettors know. Sportsbooks have this game listed with the home side Packers at +15 right now (there are also one or two 15.5s out there, but 15 isn’t exactly a key number, so we’ll go with 15 as the line).

Talking to a couple of managers at online sportsbooks, they both show the same pattern for the betting action on this one. The line opened 14.5 at both books and bettors came in on the Packers, pushing it up slightly. Right now both have a split of about 70% Green Bay money, 30% St. Louis.

The numbers don’t look good for the Rams, with trends all pointing to the home team, all the stats, league rankings, etc. But covering more than two TDs is a lot to ask of a team that might be a bit complacent coming off a big Sunday night prime time win, with a divisional road game on deck, facing one of the lightweights of the conference. Also, we have a Green Bay defense that does have some holes that can be exploited. This is still a defense that is very good at coming up with big plays, but they can also give up yards (they give up the 10th most in the NFL).

With Steven Jackson back to health (we assume) coming off the bye week, he adds a huge element to this offense and should help QB Sam  Bradford get a little time in the pocket, as teams need to respect Jackson’s ability.

Yes, it’s a mismatch, but we like the Rams to keep this one within the spread and head out of Lambeau
with a pointspread cover.

NFL Picks: We are taking the St. Louis Rams +15.

Good luck.

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