By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs -25 Total 44.5
Just as the Packers are peaking at the right time I must say the same situation applies to the Pittsburgh Steelers, especially when the three “Killer B’s” are in the line-up. Kansas City is no slouch either but a closer look inside the numbers revels some disturbing numbers if you are a supporter of the host team.
For the season, Kansas City was out yarded by exactly 396 yards and when running the ball, in the past 11 weeks the Chiefs averaged 3.3 yards per rush, 31st in the league. Alex Smith is not a downfield threat and Kansas City will have issues running the ball. Charles is on IR, Ware has sore ribs and that leaves the running game up to Charcandrick West. One edge the chiefs possess vs. the Steelers is their special teams play, especially when Tyreek Hill gets his hands on the ball. For Pittsburgh to be successful they will have to contain him and not turn the ball over as Kansas City was +33 in takeaways this season.
As for the Steelers, they have the better running back, a better receiving core plus a better quarterback. Pittsburgh also can get after opposing quarterbacks as they led the league in the last seven weeks in sacks and takeaways, (that is when their defense got healthy.) It was also reflected by their 7–0 straight up record as well as 5–1–1 ATS.
Interesting Angles
- Andy Reid is lights out after a bye week at 18–02 but in post season play he’s only 11–11 when coaching the Eagles and Chiefs.
- Roethlisberger is 7–0 straight up and 6–1 ATS when off a straight up playoff win by more than 10 points.
- Kansas City has allowed an average of 20.3 PPG in their last seven games.
- The Steelers have averaged 27.3 PPG on offense in their last seven wins with all scores exceeding 23 points.
Raising the Steel Curtain!
- Play any team over the total, (applies to the Steelers,) after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games and playing against an opponent that’s covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games. This system is 119–66 = 64% to the over in the past five seasons with the Steelers, (and all other teams that were live in this system,) averaging 23.3 PPG.
NFL Playoff Pick
I have a top opinion on the Steelers team total over 21 points at –120 at one of the books I wager at. Keep in mind that 21 is a very live number. If your total is 21.5 obviously the next key numbers are 23 and 24 as very few team totals land on 22.