NFL Playoff Wild Card – Dolphins at Steelers 1st Half Pick

dolphins vs steelers

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Miami Dolphins  +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Total 46 

It’s not surprising the Steelers are post season bound once again but it is a surprise that Miami has made the playoffs based on recent play the past few seasons. The odds makers have very little faith that the Dolphins will extend their post season play based on the line now favoring Pittsburgh by 10.5 and 11 points.  Perhaps the weather affected this number ever so slightly as it will be colder than a bank managers heart!

The Steelers will have their “Killer B’s” intact for this game as Ben, Bell and Brown as they will all be appearing in the post season together for the very first time.

What is Hot and What is Not

  • In their last six games the Dolphins have been outgained by 99 yards per game.
  • The Steelers have won seven in a row and are peaking at the right time and I note they’ve outgained their previous six foes by 117 yards per game, (excluding week 17 when they rested key starters.)
  • This will be the first career playoff game for Miami quarterback Matt Moore while Roethlisberger is making his 18th career playoff start.
  • Pittsburgh is tied for the most post seasons in playoff history with 34, tied with Dallas.
  • Miami’s defense is ranked #30 vs. the run, Steelers RB Bell had only 10 carries vs. Miami in their earlier season game. A contest in which “Big Ben” was injured.
  • The Dolphins were ranked #29 in total defense during the regular season and allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games.

Angles

  • Pittsburgh is 7–0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.
  • Miami is 05–18 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in their last 3 games.
  • The Steelers are 30–13 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 50 or more total points were scored.
  • The Dolphins are 03–13 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.

All Systems Go

  • Play against road teams in the first half when off a home loss by 10 or more points and playing against an opponent off a home win. This system is 33–14 = 70% ATS the past 10 seasons.

Dolphins at Steelers 1st Half Pick

My selection on Seattle/San Francisco under the total lost last week and I am now 12–07–01 ATS in the pre and regular season. My Every Edge OPINION is to take the Pittsburgh Steelers at –7 points in the first half. (I would make a wager at –6 or less.)

 

For additional winning systems, angles and selections as well as Tweets, visit www.gregdempson.com.