Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo has completed 20 NFL passes for 186 yards and one touchdown during two seasons with the club
It’s deja vu all over again for New England as the Patriots spend summer trying to figure out how to cope without Tom Brady. The league’s four-game suspension isn’t creating enough pressure to edge New England’s Season Win Total off 10.5, but it’s put the brakes on a surge that saw the juice on “Over” 10.5 spike to -175 in early-July.
LAST YEAR’S RECORD & 2016 NFL FUTURES
Win-Loss: 12-4 SU and 8-7-1 ATS
Over/Under: 8-8
Noteworthy: New England led by double-digits at the half in each of its first four games in 2015 (4-0 SU/ATS). They faced the Steelers, Bills, Jags and Cowboys. This year the Pats open against the Cardinals, Dolphins, Texans and Bills. Respectively, those teams ranked 5th, 27th, 28th and 14th in first-half scoring margins through 2015.
Odds to Win Conference: 4 to 1
Season Win Total Odds: 10.5 Over (-130); 10.5 Under (even)
The Patriots’s offense has so many high-class weapons that they’ll be fine through the first four weeks, regardless of who’s under center. Offensive line is still a question mark (ranked 18th last year in pass protection) and new OL coach Dante Scarnecchia has some adjustments to make, but if Gronk, Martellus Bennett, Danny Amendola and Julien Edelman are in the lineup, this unit will be potent all season.
Defense and special teams are looking good, not great. The D-Line will show new looks with DE Chris Long (Rams) moving into the rotation but the linebacking corps is solid. Stephen Gostkowski is money at kicker but the return game in 2015 was suspect. Look for new faces testing the waters on punt/kickoff returns during preseason.
PATRIOTS BOTTOM LINE: SLOW IT DOWN
New England’s first game is a tough one, on the road at Arizona. The early line is ‘Pick’ but it won’t surprise me if the Cardinals are small favorites by kickoff. As much as this game will be a challenge for Garoppolo, it’s also a major step up in class for the Cards who opened last season against a Saints defense ranked 31st overall (W 31-19).
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New England’s front seven is better than average, despite the loss of Chandler Jones to these Cardinals. Their secondary, however, is a top five unit and given HC Bill Belichick and D-Co Matt Patricia’s ability to shutdown potent passing attacks, this game is shaping up like a defensive standoff.
Under Belichick’s guidance the Pats are 28-9 ATS vs. teams that averaged more than 270 passing YPG. They’ve allowed 20.6 PPG in those games and only 17.7 PPG in games that took place during the first four weeks. Consider booking this contest to stay under the lofty total.