NHL Pick: Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs

 

Pinnacle Odds: Washington Capitals -146 at Toronto Maple Leafs +132 Total 5.5

by Greg Dempson

The puck drops at 7:00 ET at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto and the Maple Leafs have pushed the Raptors off the front page of the sports section!!

I quote a conversation that was overheard at the office water cooler concerning the Maple Leafs and Capitals game 4 contest,

“If we can win tonight, we’ll put another nail in their coffin, and be up three games to one!”

The majority would assume that Washington would be ahead 2-1 in the series, but such is not the case as the upstart Maple Leafs have won two out of the first three games in this series with all three contests going into overtime.

If there has been one constant with regards to high scoring games and the Toronto Maple Leafs, (there is a 48 game sampling,) when Toronto is off a game whereby 7 or more goals were scored, the next contest is also high scoring, (3.3 to 3.0) goals for a combo score of 6.3 on average, with the over prevailing at a 30-18 clip. Incidentally, the average of 3.3 goals scored applies to Toronto.

Over Angles

· This season Washington is 14-02 to the OVER when away from home and playing a team with a losing record.

· The Maple Leafs are 37-24 to the OVER in home games after one or more consecutive overs the past three seasons.

· In the second half of the season, this season the Capitals are 8-1 to the over this season when playing an opponent with a losing straight up record with the average score being 3.4 goals vs. 3.4 goals. Will there be another overtime game tonight?

· Toronto is 5-1 to the over at home in their last six when hosting Washington.

· Washington is 11-3 OVER this season when on the road and playing teams that allow an average of 2.85+ goals per game.

· The Capitals are 18-05 to the over when revenging a loss to an opponent as a favorite during the last two seasons.

Capitalizing with a Super OVER System

· Play road teams that allow an average of 2.4 or less goals per game to sail OVER the total after allowing 4 or more goals in two consecutive games. This system is 30-08 = 79% to the over the past five seasons. This system is also 20-04 = 83% to the OVER the past three seasons as well as 9-3 over this season with the average combined score at 6.3 goals per game in this system.

Everyedge.com in Review

· I’m off to an 0-3 start with my Every Edge NHL selections for -3.50-units.

NHL Pick

My Everyedge.com selection for this evening is to take the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs over 5.5 goals at +100.