Thou shall electrocute the bookies!
Seems like only yesterday I was writing about opportunities to bet on updated NHL series odds after game one….in fact it was yesterday.
My previous blog post “Updated NHL Series Odds Calgary vs Vancouver” handicapped the updated odds in that series after the Canucks dropped their opener on home ice.
It setup a one-unit play on Vancouver to win the series, despite going in the hole 1-0 out of the gate.
As I referenced in that post, I always go looking for what I think is value after the opening game of a series.
After Thursday night’s results, I’m back for another one unit series play, based on the updated odds.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Petr Mrazek!
Detroit’s young goalie was brilliant in the opener. He had to be, as the Lightning were able to create scoring chances all night. It’s great to have a goalie steal a game for you (just ask the Canadiens), but you can’t go to that well too many times. I’m betting that is the only game Mrazek steals in this series.
The Lightning played well. They just didn’t get the win. If they play close to that level the rest of the way they’ll be moving on. I’m painting that loss as more of a speed bump on their way to bigger and better things this spring.
Tampa Bay was around a -150 favorite before the opening faceoff – a price I had no interest in. Not because I didn’t think Tampa was going to win the series, but because I don’t play favorites of that size and didn’t see any value.
Now the Bolts are down one game to nothing and the updated series price has them at -105 (at Pinnacle Sports). I’m fine with that.
NHL Series Pick:
As I said, I still like TB to win the series. They are clearly the better team and showed that on Thursday. Detroit struggled at both ends – they weren’t able to consistently create real chances and weren’t able to limit the Lightning’s chances. Despite the win, that combo likely isn’t going to change much and that spells a short playoff season for MoTown hockey fans.
Let’s go with one unit on Tampa Bay at -105 to win the series.
You can check the current NHL Series Odds