The Miami Heat scorched their way through the first two rounds of playoff betting and are listed as more than 6 to 1 favorites to make a return trip to the NBA Finals but the Pacers won’t be an easy out
Five of the last six meetings between the Heat and Pacers climbed over the total by an average of nearly 13 points per game
It took Miami five games to dispose of Chicago after sweeping the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round and tonight, the Heat will look to continue their reign of terror over Midwestern opponents with game 1 of the Eastern Finals vs. Indiana.
Miami is on an insane 45-3 straight-up run overall but two of the team’s regular season losses were against these Pacers and after losing the series in six last postseason, Indiana is looking for payback.
The Pacers come into this contest listed as an 8-point underdog and basketball odds for the total sit at 182. Moneyline prices on Miami for game 1 are -380 but with the Heat playing on six days rest, Indiana has a solid chance to try and steal one tonight.
REST vs. RUST
Playoff home faves playing on six-plus days of rest are 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS since 2004 with 8 overs and 11 unders. This 8-point line is fairly standard given that most home teams on a long break usually dominated their previous round’s opponent but the Heat failed in game 1 against the Bulls and were just 1-3 ATS this season with extended rest. The Heat allowed 99.8 average points in those four games and that’s 5.8 points higher than their season average (94.0). Indiana’s season average was just 94.4 PPG but when facing a team who was “rusty” the Pacers jacked their offensive production more than 10 points to 104.7 (3-0 SU/ATS).
San Antonio leads 2-0 over Memphis in the Western Conference Final with Game 3 set for Friday at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee where the Grizzlies are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in 2013 NBA playoff betting. Early lines at Pinnacle Sports show Memphis -4.5 with a total of 178.5… Check basketball odds here!
NBA PICKS
Indiana only stayed close in one of three road games during last year’s playoff series vs. the Heat and they were just 21-22-3 ATS in road games this year but with a spread greater than +5 the Pacers covered in four of their last six. This team has won six of eight straight-up and playing against a familiar foe we feel the odds maker is being too generous.
Pick: Take the Pacers
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