Posts Tagged ‘ncaa odds’
Our College basketball picks finished the season strong at EveryEdge and today we preview the big game between No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks and the top seeded favorites, Kentucky
The Wildcats were circled in as this year’s March Madness bracket champs more than any other team and through the first five rounds Kentucky was 3-2 ATS with a 10.6-point average margin of victory. Only one of their wins was by fewer than 6.5 points, which is where most online sportsbooks are offering the line as of Monday morning.
Kentucky was in full control during their Final Four game against Louisville, carrying a 35-28 win onto the second-half where they eventually won by eight points; good enough for the majority of Cardinals backers who were getting +8.5 or more points.
Kansas allows an average of just 61.6 points per game (PPG) and that has whittled the NCAA odds for the total down to 138 from an opening price of 140.5.
The Wildcats are only 16-22 ATS in their past 38 lined games and we’ve had to use creative basketball betting to capitalize on this team during the tournament. Saturday we tabbed the “Under” vs. Louisville and against Indiana; our posted play was on the Wildcats and Hoosiers “Over” 67.5 in the first-half.
Kentucky led that game 50-47 at the break and it was the most first-half points they’ve scored during the tournament but there has been two constants: Having the lead and scoring more than 35 points
Wildcat Scoring – First-half
Led 35-28 vs. Louisville
Led 42-22 vs. Baylor
Led 50-47 vs. Indiana
Led 38-27 vs. Iowa State
Led 45-26 vs. Western Kentucky
That’s an average lead of 12 points per game, outscoring opponents 42-30. Including the regular season, Kentucky has first-half averages of 37.7 to 28.5 and the early line for this game is Wildcats -3.5 (even) with a total of 63.5.
Each of these teams has top caliber defense and with Kansas’ scoring averages (35.6-29.0), we think the oddsmaker has done a good job on that first-half total. Team totals for the first-half are Wildcats (33) and Kansas (30.5) and with all its offensive talent, our top play is on the Wildcats staying true to form.
Pick: Take Kentucky Team Total “Over” 33 first-half points
March Madness Record: 6-2 ATS………………………….. Follow Everyedge on Twitter!
March Madness continues Saturday as the top college basketball teams in the country hit New Orleans for the Final Four. We setup the first game on the card between Louisville and top seeded Kentucky, looking to improve on our 5-2 ATS record in tournament betting
Winners of the Big East championship, Louisville is making its first appearance in the Final Four since 2005. Their 50-44 SU/ATS win over Cincinnati set a record for the lowest scoring final in Big East history and through the first four games of the NCAA tournament; the Cardinals have kept the trend alive.
Louisville fought its way out of the West with 1 over and 3 unders, extending their March Over/Under record to 4 overs, 15 unders and 1 push since 2009. The low scoring games have slowed down the total for today’s game and as of early Saturday, most online sportsbooks show a 1.5 point decrease from the opening line of 138.5.
Current NCAA odds show a total of 137 with Kentucky listed as a 9-point favorite. The Wildcats have covered three in row and are winning straight-up by an average of 12 points per game with the same formula they’ve used all season. Louisville is going to need to play an almost perfect game to pull an upset and it will come down the Cardinals defense.
If Louisville can mix coverages, force Kentucky into difficult shooting situations early and haul in their share of defensive rebounds, the Cardinals gameplan should keep the score within single digits. Louisville ranked seventh overall this season with an average of 8.9 turnovers and they have played their share of close games. Getting plus-9 points or more, we have a strong lean to the dog but our official play is on the total.
On a neutral court with a total between 130 and 139.5, Kentucky has played 1 over and 9 unders the past two years and this season alone, regardless of location, they show 4 overs, 14 unders and a push in that range.
- Since 1997, Louisville and Kentucky have combined to play 3 overs and 11 unders
Coach Rick Pitino (44-13 SU, 33-21-3 ATS) and Kentucky HC John Calipari (36-13 SU, 26-22-1 ATS) have impressive March Madness betting resumes and these teams met on New Year’s Eve (69-62 Wildcats win), so the strategy will play a big role. When facing common opponents this season, the two teams combined for an average of 134.5 total points per game and with the recent history on our side, betting under looks like the value play in this contest.
Pick: Take the Under