Posts Tagged ‘North Carolina’

Our March Madness basketball picks are 5-1 ATS and today we setup the Elite 8 game between the No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks and top seeded North Carolina Tar Heels

 

North Carolina has an 18-3 SU record in regional finals, with nine trips to the Final Four since 1988

 

Today’s second game in the NCAA Tournament pits two of the all-time top college basketball teams with Kansas vs. North Carolina in the Midwest final. There is a trip to the Final Four on the line and the winner will face Ohio State, who was too much for Syracuse on Saturday.

 

The sports betting line opened at Kansas -2 and was bet as low as -1 on speculation that North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall might play but the latest reports say that Marshall will not start. Marshall fractured his right wrist in the Round 2 win over Creighton and did not play in Friday’s 73-65 overtime win vs. Ohio.

 

North Carolina has won 12 of its past 13 games straight-up and they are 9-4 ATS during that stretch and still have talent up front with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and leading scoring Harrison Barnes (17.1 PPG) but the knock is that these players have not shown toughness at times. That will be tested against a Kansas team who have won three-straight, holding opponents to 56 points per game.

 

FIRST-HALF SYSTEM

There is playoff/tournament system “live” for this game that has cashed 41 tickets in the past 49 games suggesting a play on the “Under” 66.5 in the first-half:

 

- In neutral court games with a total between 65.5 and 70.5 points, play the first-half “Under” when at least one of the teams has won three-straight games

 

The five-year record for this NCAA Over/Under profile shows 26 overs and 62 unders (70.5-percent) and the average combined score was 64.6 points.

 

NCAA PICKS

NCAA betting on the total has reduced the total to 142 (from 144) but we still see value on that price. Kansas has played 4 overs and 17 unders in its past 21 tournament games and overall, they are 12-21-2 O/U on the season. 15 of those unders came away from home and with the ability to get physical, we think Kansas will slow this tempo down and keep the game below the number.

Pick: Take the Under

 

Check NCAA Odds

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Introduce revenge and drama to one of the biggest college basketball betting rivalries in America, and we give to you Saturday night’s game between North Carolina and Duke.

 

 

The sixth ranked Tar Heels (26-4 SU) led 43-40 at half-time when these team met at Chapel Hill three weeks ago (Feb. 8), but poor three-point shooting (1/6) wouldn’t allow the 5.5-point favorite to pull away.

 

Meanwhile No. 3 Duke (26-4), who sit 20th overall with a 39-percent overall hit rate from beyond the arc, nailed 14 of 36 (38.9-percent) shots from three-point land to key the comeback and eventually win 85-84 straight-up on a bomb from Austin Rivers.

 

Duke was coming off a 78-74 overtime loss to Miami, one of just two home losses on the season, and the Blue Devils come into tonight’s contest riding a seven-game unbeaten streak (4-3 ATS).

 

Online sportsbooks opened the NCAA odds at Duke -1 with a total of 154 but the money on North Carolina has shifted the balance to the road team at Tar Heels -2 and 155.

 

North Carolina responded to the loss with six-straight victories of its own (5-1 ATS) and they are 11-1 in their past 12. Since getting blown out 90-57 by the Florida State Seminoles on Jan. 14, the Tar Heels are 6-0 straight-up vs. ACC opponents on the road but they’ve covered just three times.

 

OVER/UNDER NOTEBOOK

Duke’ s played 10 of 15 home games to the “Over” this season and with the three-ball hitting a ridiculous 43-percent the past three games, it’s hard to imagine they’ll shy away from launching an assault from outside.

 

The Tar Heels are tough away from home but the average posted total during their recent six-game win streak was 144.8 and the average combined score was just 138.3.

 

Duke averages 79.0 points per game (10th overall) but North Carolina only gives up 66.1 points and in what should be a madhouse, they’ll work hard to control the pace of this game early.

 

COLLEGE PICKS

The “Over” in February ended a six-game run of unders between these teams and today’s total matches the highest total since the run of unders began three years ago.  We lean towards the Tar Heels getting revenge with a straight-up win and in what should be tight game, our money is going on the Under 155.

 

Check updated NCAA Odds

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