NFL Football

Sure someone can still get picked up tonight for solicitation, or go AWOL in the Tenderloin, or get papparazzied in leather and chaps in The Castro, but so far, Super Bowl week has flat lined.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

With the players behaving themselves, the talk has been more about prop bets than propositioning

 

Both the Broncos and the Panthers have been the model of professionalism since landing in the Bay Area.

 

It’s left the media to spend way too much time talking betting, specifically Super Bowl prop bets. They love them some prop bet talk. As tedious as it can be when surfing sports talk radio, prop bets are a big part of the experience. Every year I toss a few dollars their way, almost always strictly for fun (unless Dempson tells me he really likes something, then I step it up a bit).

 

As you all know, the options for prop betting are extensive. My advice is to go easy. Have fun, don’t play 20 of them, but narrow it down to a handful (or even less) and enjoy the game.

 

Here are the ones I’m looking at:

 

LADY GAGA NATIONAL ANTHEM UNDER 2:20 (-180)

Disclaimer – this might seem like a sad, degenerate type of wager, but it’s actually an option you can do some homework on and maybe get an edge. Looking around, you can find Gaga singing the national anthem from a New York Pride Parade that was 2:18…and that was a long rendition. Really long. Yes, she loves the spotlight and could make the moment all about her, stretching the performance past a reasonable expiry date, but I don’t think she does. A younger Gaga maybe, but I say she nails this with a few seconds to spare.

Laying the juice and playing the Under 2:20

 

YARDAGE OF SHORTEST TD SCORED UNDER 1.5 (-110)

Played the Under 1.5 with this one. What we’re looking for is a pass interference call in the end zone. Failing that, a stop on the one-yard line. I think we see a goal-line unit on the field at some point.

Shortest TD Under 1.5

 

1st TD NOT PASSING TD +145

Solid plus-money play that I’m in on. Yes, the NFL is all about the pass these days, but 1) these teams boast two great secondaries, 2) Cam loves to run the ball inside the red zone, 3) the Broncos will be pounding the run all day, regardless of the outcome. Kubiak loves run plays and Manning has been consistently checking to running plays, 4) and of course, we have a shot at a special teams TD or defensive TD.

The first TD will not be a passing play.

 

C.J. ANDERSON OVER 58.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

As I referenced above, Kubiak will call some running plays and then call some more. The term “stubborn ass” might come to mind at some point Sunday when watching Manning turn to hand the ball off yet again. But Anderson has become the bull for the Bronco running attack, going over this total easily in the first two games.

Obviously if the Panthers get up early this becomes a long shot, but if they’re trading punches, this has a great chance of landing.

CJ over 58.5 rushing.

 

You can check out a full lineup of Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl Props at Pinnacle Sports.

Enjoy the game. Be sure to drop by the Sports Betting Forum at Everyedge.

patriots team

By Greg Dempson

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The last time these two opponents faced one another was in week 12, and that contest did not feature Brady vs. Manning when the Patriots traveled to Denver. Each team played without key starters and in that contest the Patriots went 2 of 13 with their third down conversions and thus, Brady’s Mile High record was anything but, “Mile High” as that most recent loss had the Pats/Brady at 2–6 straight up. In that contest Denver rallied to defeat New England 30–24 in overtime. Denver trailed 21–7 in the 4th quarter and rallied to tie the game 24–24 and win in overtime. Brady was able to toss three touchdowns without Julian Edelman in a losing effort and he lost tight end Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury late in the game.

Denver is great at stopping the run and the Patriots do not have a running game and that usually spells doom for teams that cannot run the ball with some degree of success.

FACT

Since 2001, when factoring in all 32 teams that have played in a game whereby they abandoned the run to such an extent they passed the ball 80% or more times in a game, those 32 teams are only 7–86 straight up, never mind the spread.

There is one exception to that statistic, Tom Brady, as the Patriots are the lone exception with Tom Brady’s under center. The Patriots have played 5 games when Brady’s passed the ball 80% or more times in a game, New England’s record is 4–1. It’s hard to grasp…. as 31 quarterbacks/teams have gone 3–85 without a run game while New England/Brady is 4–1.

Ask Yourself This?

If Kansas City had defeated New England last week, what would the line be? Alex Smith vs. Manning? Kansas City would certainly be capable of defeating Denver. However, Alex Smith is a “game manager” but Smith is a QB who can not only run but still throw the ball down field, Manning is well, Manning. Obviously Denver would be laying wood in that scenario.

Time

Denver’s defense vs. the Patriots offensive line? New England cannot run the ball so what will Denver do? Well, last week Brady got rid of the ball in less than 2 seconds and 66% of his passes where for 10 or less yards. Tom is the better quarterback but laying 3 on the road when you are only 2–6 straight up is questionable.

Patriots vs Broncos Pick

Take New England to score 24 or more points as my Every Edge Game of the Week.

 

manning brady

We are down to the championship round of the NFL Playoffs featuring the top two seeds in each conference. This is only the seventh time since 1990 that we have the top two seeds facing each other with winners going into the SuperBowl.

In the AFC Championship, you have two wily veteran QBs facing off against each other for the 17th time. In the NFC Championship, you have two young teams from the past few seasons now ready to take over the NFC top position vacated by the Seahawks. This should be a great Championship Sunday.

Last weekend, we went 2-1-1 and our playoff record is 4-3-1.

NFL Playoff Championship Round Predictions

New England Patriots -3 vs Denver Broncos +3 Total 44.5

Line opened at -3.5 for the visitors and sharp money quickly came down for the home team with the best defense in the AFC (based on yards per play) moving the line to -3. The betting public is firmly behind the defending champion New England Patriots with 75% support. With quarterback Peyton Manning in decline, bettors are anticipating that this will not be one of those past Manning vs Brady classics. However, the Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of +3.0 or less. Tom Brady is not a big fan of Mile High stadium. He is 2-6 straight up record as a visitor to Denver.

Pick: New England Patriots, to revenge their loss in the regular season

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs Carolina Panthers -3 Total 47.5

Although all the hype and talk is on the Manning vs Brady, this is the game I’m looking forward to Sunday. Both teams are electrifying on offense and both can play punishing defence. The line opened at -3 Panthers and flirted at -3.5 Thursday before Cardinals backers pushed the market back to -3. Over 72% of the betting public is behind Cam Newton’s Panthers. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -3.0 or less. In the Cardinals last 10 games as road dog, they are 7-3 ATS.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals, Coach Arians opens up his bag of tricks to fool the Panthers. 

peyton manning waving

After all 4 road favourites won last weekend and this weekend’s NFL Playoffs, everything is flipped – all the road teams are now dogs.  Home favorites, 3 of 4 were all bet down from their opening lines in this Divisional Round. The Denver-Pittsburgh line was affect due to injury status with star Steelers players. The smallest home favorite is the team with the best regular season record, Carolina Panthers. Home teams in the divisional round 13-23 ATS. Is there value with home teams since they’ve had two weeks of rest?

NFL Playoff Divisional Round Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs +5 vs New England Patriots -5 Total 42

Line opened at -5, went down to -4.5 briefly and then went back up to -5. The betting public fell in love with Chiefs after last Saturday’s demolition of the Texans. The Chiefs are getting 51% of the betting public support. The Patriots are no Houston Texans.  The Patriots & Belichek are undefeated after suffer 2 straight up losses. The Chiefs are on a 11 game winning streak, but are 3-7 ATS when games are played on Saturday.

Pick: New England Patriots, not going against the champs at home

Green Bay Packers +7 vs Arizona Cardinals -7 Total 50

Line opened at -7.5 and then bet down to -7, but the Arizona Cardinals are finally getting the respect from bookmakers. When these teams met in the season a few weeks ago, the Cardinals walloped the Packers, but no matter. There is significant betting public support for the Packers at 44% at +7. Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games.

Pick: Green Bay Packers, Packers get the cover, but not SU. 

Seattle Seahawks +1.5 vs Carolina Panthers -1.5 Total 44

Just two words “I’m ready” and the line drops 1.5 points with Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch texting a reporter his injury status. Line opened at -2.5 and then went to -3 briefly, then back to -2.5 points. After Lynch’s text, the line dropped to -1 and the wise guys have come in on the Panthers side to push it to-1.5.  Betting public are firmly behind Carolina at 72%. Looking at Strength of Schedule from teamrankings.com, Seattle is ranked 2nd while Carolina is ranked 27th. A big difference in quality of opponents. Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Pick: Seattle Seahawkssome way some how, they get it done.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 vs Denver Broncos -7 Total N/A

In what appeared to be a great match up on paper, the Steelers coming into this contest are without their number 1 running back, their best WR is under concussion protocol and their leader, Ben Roethlisberger with a shoulder injury. Line opened at -3 Broncos and quickly shot up to -7 with the unknown impact of the injuries. As of writing, no totals have been published. Naturally, betting public is at 76% behind the Broncos. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.

Pick: Denver Broncosdefense of the Broncos will beat up an injury-riddled Steelers offence. 

NFL Playoff Record: 2-2 ATS

patriots team

By Greg Dempson

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots 

Of the four Divisional games being played this weekend this is the only one that does not feature a rematch from a previous regular season contest. So, does the going get a little tougher this weekend for the visiting teams due to the fact the four hosts have had a bye week? Last weekend the road teams won all four games with the hosts being underdogs in three of the contests while Washington’s line flip-flopped having them being – 1 or pick and even +1 at various stages during the week.

Okay, I’ll answer the question previously asked! Since 1990, (when the current playoff format was adopted,) the host team has been favored in 93 out of the 100 contests with one game listed as pick. The home team has fared well straight up, (73–27,) but the odds maker has done a good job with the lines as those 93 home favorites have an ATS record of 45–46–02.
Recent form has these road dogs doing much better. Since 2003 these road warriors are 29–16 or 64% ATS as well as 17–28 straight up.

Pinnacle Sports: Kansas City Chiefs +5 vs New England Patriots -5 Total 42

As of this report the Kansas City Chiefs, (winners of 11 consecutive games winning by an average score of 28–12,) are a 4.5 or +5 point road with the total pegged at 41.5 or 42, down from an opening O/U of 44.5. This number of –4.5 or –5 is the lowest for a Patriots home playoff game as they’ve been favored by 7 or more in eight consecutive playoff games. The last time they were laying a price close to this number was in 2003 as they were favored by 4 points vs. the Ravens while losing that contest straight up, (33–14.)

Before a slew of injuries, the Patriots started the season at 10–0 but closed with a mark of 2–4. They were 9–0 until Julian Edelman was injured and 3–4 without him but apparently he is a go for this weekend. The status of Gronk is unclear, but, it just might be Belichick sandbagging! Chandler Jones is good to go as the Patriots are playing on “natural grass” vs. synthetic grass.
The big issue health wise for the Chiefs is how serious is the injury to Jeremy Maclin? He’s listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain.

View From the 50 Yard Line

· New England’s team total is 23.5 while Kansas City’s team total of 18.5.

· The Patriots have averaged 31.6 PPG on offense at home while holding opponents to an average of 17.7 PPG.

· The Chiefs averaged 29.1 PPG on the road while holding the opposition to 17.0.

· Alex Smith has averaged 19.4 PPG as a road underdog.

· In 4 playoff games Smith has averaged 31.8 PPG.

· In Brady’s last 9 playoff games he has averaged 27.4 PPG while the team has allowed 22.7 PPG.

· In Brady’s 5 starts vs. the Chiefs the Patriots have allowed an average of 19.8 PPG.

· I like the Chiefs team total over 18.5. This total, (18.5,) is a dead number as well as totals such as 18, 19 and 19.5 are obviously between the key numbers of 17 and 20 points. Weather might be an issue here, so check the weather and watch the game total, if the number of 42/41.5 drops, so will the team totals. The key number here is 17, but realistically, we won’t get a sniff with that number.

Chiefs vs Patriots Pick

My Every Edge Game of the Week is on the Kansas City team total to sail over 18.5 points.

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