NFL Football


By Greg Dempson

Buffalo Bills at New England 1st Half Play

The Buffalo Bills snapped a 12-game losing streak at Gillette Stadium on December 28 of last year by defeating the Patriots 17–09 for their first win at New England in more than 20 years. In that game New England had already clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC and rested Gronkowski and Edelman with Brady playing in the first half only. That loss ended New England’s 35 game winning streak vs. AFC foes.
Edelman, who is New England’s number one receiver, is out for this game and an extended period of time so Danny Amendola as well as Gronkowski will see more passes thrown their way and Aaron Dobson will most likely be in the mix. In their week 2 meeting at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Dobson caught 7 passes for 87 yards.
In week 1 of this season the Bills closed as a 2 point home dog and won outright vs. the Colts. The following week they hosted the Patriots and the opening line favored New England by 1.5 or 2 points but as the week progressed the Bills were installed as a 1 point favorite at kick-off. In that 40–32 Patriots win at Buffalo the Bills made a huge comeback but fell short, after trailing 37–13. New England had 506 yards on offense, (451 via the pass.) The Bills had a combined offense of 349 yards.

Best Odds All The Time – Bet at Pinnacle Sports

View From the 50 Yard Line

· Dismissing that home game vs. the Bills on December 28 of last year, when New England had the #1 seed wrapped up, the Patriots have played well vs. the Bills in the first half, winning the first half by scores of 24–13, 13–07 and 16–03 in their last three meetings.
· New England is off an upset win as an underdog, (they were +1 in week 2 at Buffalo.) When the road team is playing with revenge vs. an opponent that scored 35 or more points, by playing against the road team and on the home team in the first half we are 33–07 = 82.5% ATS since 1983 and 5–1 = 87.5% in the past five seasons.
· Shop for the best line if you’re going to back New England in the first half as –4 is a “live” number vs. –4.5 as not many games land on exactly 5 points in the first half, so the next key number is 6, so I recommend that you lay 4 points. If the score is 14–10 you’ll be glad you did!

NFL Pick 

My NFL Game of the Week is on the New England Patriots at –4 in the first half.

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By Greg Dempson

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles -6

My Every Edge NFL record is 8 – 4 ATS, onto this week’s selection. The Philadelphia Eagles have turned a 1–3 start into a .500 record thanks to winning three out of their last four games. At 4–4 in the weak AFC–East division the are certainly in the hunt for a post season berth.

As for the Dolphins, they won in week 1 at Washington and then disaster struck which eventually led to the firing of their head coach after their debacle in London, England. Miami’s 3–5 and with the Patriots undefeated their post season aspirations hinge on making it to the Wild Card round. The Dolphins are 2–2 under interim head coach Dan Campbell. Life away from home hasn’t been great as Miami has dropped the first two of their three consecutive road games and they might be catching Philadelphia at the wrong time.

Best Odds All The Time – Bet at Pinnacle Sports 

Eagles running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews have combined for 620 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in their last four games and the team has increased their YPC up 5.6. Miami has been poor vs. the run and last week the gave up 266 yards on the ground at Buffalo while losing 33–17. The Dolphins are allowing an average of 142.1 rushing yards per game, second only to the Browns who allow 147.6 YPG. The Eagles have averaged 28.1 rushing attempts per game and 121.6 yards on the ground while the Dolphins have seen opponents run the ball a league-high 31.5 times per game. Last week Miami became the first team to allow two 100 yard rushers as well as a 150 yard receiver in the same game.

View From the 50 Yard Line

· In the second half of the season the Dolphins are 16–31 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or less yards per return.

· In the second half of the season Philadelphia is 31–16 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.

· Miami is 14–31 ATS after a two game road trip.

· The Eagles are 8–1 ATS in the month of November the past three seasons.

· The Dolphins are is 0–7 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.

· After allowing 400 or more total yards in their last game, play on home teams in a game involving two teams that are solid on offense, averaging between 335 to 370 YPG after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 46–22 = 68% ATS since 1983. When we tighten the system and look at home favorites of –7 or less, (the Eagles are favored by 6 as of this posting,) the system improves to 33–11–02 = 75% ATS since 1988.

NFL Pick

My NFL Game of the Week is on the Philadelphia Eagles –6 points.

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NYG QB Manning wk 3

By Greg Dempson

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Sunday the New York Giants tied the 1963 Houston Oilers for the most points scored while losing a game, matching the identical 52–49 score from December 22, 1963 when the Houston Oilers lost to the Oakland Raiders. Last weekend’s Giants/Saints shoot-out was the highest scoring game in the NFL since 204 when the Bengals defeated the Browns by a score of 58–48.

The last time Tampa Bay played the Giants the Buccaneers were in the wrong end of a shoot-out (41–34,) in 2012 with that game sailing way over the posted total of 44. This total has been bet up to as high as 50 from an opening number of 47.5. I am not interested in the total in this 4:05 ET start as my focus is on the side portion of this game.

View From the 50 yard Line

· The Bucs are 1–11 straight up and 3 – 9 ATS in their last 12.

· The Giants are 3–1 ATS in their last four trips to Tampa Bay.

· The Buccaneers are 2–11 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more points.

· The Giants are 29–14 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.

· There is a superb system on the Giants that is 22 – 08 = 73% ATS since 1999 which inproves to 16 – 04 ATS in division and conference play when backing the Giants.

· Here is the clincher, since 1999 when a team lost straight up on the road by less than 7 points, (Giants,) and are on the road again with a line that’s + or – 3 points, our play on team, (applies to the Giants,) is 10 – 00 – 02 = 100% ATS.


My EveryEdge game of the Week is on the New York Giants at – 2.5 points.

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Russell Wilson

By Greg Dempson

Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Total 41

Matt Cassel is under center for a second consecutive week and he will be tested by Michael Bennett, who had a career-high 3½ sacks in last Thursday’s 20-3 win at San Francisco. Bennett is tied for the NFL lead with 6½ sacks. Russell Wilson can most certainly relate to the “sack” word as he’s been sacked a league high 31 times which is 13 fewer than his career high total in 2013.
Dez Bryant returns to the Dallas line up today after being injured in week 1 vs. the Giants. Bryant has yet to score vs. Seattle in three games. He’s been targeted 26 times in those three contests catching 11 balls for a combined 156 yards. Seattle’s ground game averages 143.3 yards for the league’s second highest mark and last week Marshawn Lynch rushed for a season high 122 yards on 27 carries at San Francisco after totaling 182 yards in his first four games.
Dallas is ranked seventh in rushing with 127.7 yards per game. Last week Darren McFadden ran for 152 yards after starter Joseph Randle left with a strained back. In last years’ game, at Seattle, Dallas, led by Tony Romo, won 30–23. The Cowboys out-yarded Seattle 401–206 while rushing for 162 yards while Romo tossed 2 touchdowns and throwing for 250 yards

View From the 50 yard Line

· Seattle is 20–08 to the over vs. dominant ball control teams that posses the ball for 32+ minutes while amassing 21+ first downs per game.

· Dallas is 42–16 to the over in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.

· Play road teams averaging 7.3 or more passing yards per attempt to sail over the total when playing against a poor passing defense, (allowing 6.7-7.3 passing yards per attempt), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 35-12 = 74.5% to the over since 1983 as well as 14-03 to the over the past 10 seasons and 09-00 to the over the previous three seasons.

NFL Pick

With 41 being such a key number when betting overs I’m playing the Seahawks/Cowboys over 41 points –120 as my Every Edge NFL Game of the Week.

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superman on topBy Samurai Sam

For the first time in the contest, the an EveryEdge member holds the lead for two weeks in a row! Big congrats to Superman who holds on to top spot with a total of of 24 points from a 23-10-2 record. In second place is Ohara with 22 points and tied for third place is A Hockey Fan and Lid with 21 points a piece.

Golf claps go out to two EveryEdgers who went 5-0 in Week 7 – Bill Grundy & Ozzy.

Quick recap on Week 7 Betting – Get a free bet today at Bovada

ATS 6-7-1: Dogs take it. 

Biggest Covers:
Dolphins cover by 13,
Rams cover by 12
Raiders & Saints 11.5

Totals 7-7 

Biggest Overs & Unders
Bills/Jags Over by 24
Texans/Dolphins Over by 23.5
Bucs/Redskins Over by 19
Falcons/Titans Under by 28.5
Seahawks/49ers Under by 18.5

EEH NFL Week 8 Odds 

EEH NFL Week 8 odds are out and available to make your picks in the contest. There are no double digit odds, but we have 6 home dogs. Make your picks today.

Date Home Visitor
October 29, 2015 5:30:00 PM PDT New England -8 Miami +8
November 1, 2015 6:30:00 AM PST Kansas City -4.5 Detroit +4.5
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Atlanta -7.5 Tampa Bay +7.5
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST New Orleans +3.5 NY Giants -3.5
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST St. Louis -8 San Francisco +8
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Chicago +1 Minnesota -1
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Cleveland +4.5 Arizona -4.5
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Pittsburgh +1 Cincinnati -1
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Baltimore -3.5 San Diego +3.5
November 1, 2015 10:00:00 AM PST Houston -3.5 Tennessee +3.5
November 1, 2015 1:05:00 PM PST Oakland +2 NY Jets -2
November 1, 2015 1:25:00 PM PST Dallas +6 Seattle -6
November 1, 2015 5:30:00 PM PST Denver +3 Green Bay -3
November 2, 2015 5:30:00 PM PST Carolina -7 Indianapolis +7