NCAA Basketball

georgia state

By Greg Dempson

UT-Arlington at Georgia State (game #570 @ 2:30 ET)

On January 21 the UT-Arlington Mavericks lost their leading scorer Kevin Hervey. In their next contest, without Hervey, the Mavericks were defeated at home laying 3.5, (68–62.) The Mavericks followed that home loss by dropped three consecutive road match-ups, –3 @ UL–Monroe, (99–88,) followed by a loss at LA–Lafayette, (90–75,) as a 6 point road dog and in their last game, on Thursday, the Mavs dropped another game, (82–73,) at Georgia State when laying 4.5 points.

Pinnacle Sports: UT-Arlington +1 at Georgia State -1

I believe the lines maker has not made the proper adjustment with Hervey being out. On December 30 the Mavericks hosted the Panthers as 5 point home favorites and won with ease, (85–70,) with Hervey scoring 17. In the 17 games he played with the Mavs, before being injured, he averaged just over 17 PPG, (290 points.)

Tip–Ins

· The Mavericks are ranked #280 in offensive field goal percentage shooting 41.6% while attempting 66.0 shots per game. Their shooting percentages include 70.2% from the free throw line and 33.0% from beyond the arc this season.

· The Panther are ranked #172 in offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.6% while attempting 51.1 shots per game. The Panthers shooting percentages include 70.2% from the free throw line and 34.1% from beyond the arc this season.

· UT–Arlington is 1–4 straight up vs. Georgia State the past three seasons.

· Georgia State is 10–01 straight up at home this season.

· Georgia State is 26–11 ATS and +13.90-units in home games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.

· Play on all teams that average 63–67 PPG when the line is +3 or –3 points, (applies to Geo. State,) when playing against an average defensive team that allows 67–74 PPG after 15+ games and after a combined score of 115 points or less. When playing on Geo. State this system is 67–30 = 69% ATS the past five seasons as well as 40–13 or 75.47% ATS the past three seasons.

UT-Arlington at Georgia State Pick

My Every Edge game for today is on Georgia State at –1.

 

For additional winning information visit www.gregdempson.com.

 

ucla at usc

Let me give you a pinch on your hip…ahhh

By Greg Dempson

UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans

At this juncture of the season, the majority of contests remaining on all the teams’ schedule involves conference games. Those early season “rent-a-victim” foes the power teams hosted are indeed rare. There is the occasional exception, one of which was extremely rare as last Saturday there where a non neutral site contest that involved elite teams. Two perennial powerhouse schools played when Kentucky traveled to Kansas, lost in overtime, with the Jayhawks not only winning but covering ATS. It was an entertaining game from a purists point of view!

That’s what I love about College hoops vs. NCAA Football, because when it comes to College football, we’ll probably never see Ohio State play Alabama in each teams’ 10th game of the season, (even at a neutral site.) Alabama’s argument would be the Tide has to run the gauntlet of the SEC teams while Ohio State has a few teams on their schedule that might present problems for their program. If you’re going to lose a game, do so early rather than later in the season.

Okay, so I’m off my topic as this is hoops selection and NCAA football is still 200+ days away. In a coup de gras vs. Alabama, Clemson, USC, Ole Miss and Auburn and the also ran teams, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh signed the anointed number #1 prospect for 2016, Rashan Gary. One signing does not a team make, but it is an interesting beginning for a Wolverines program that been on the down side for quite some time.

Pinnacle Sports: UCLA +5.5 vs USC -5.5 Total 160.5

The Bruins have had their way with the Trojans, (it’s safe to say,) because this cross-town rivalry has been one sided of late as UCLA has been on the right side of the ledger in 8 of their 10 previous games, (home or away.) In seven of those contests UCLA was favored by more than 9 points.
Picked by many to fail miserably this season the last time the Trojans had a 13–0 straight up home record was in 1943. Sorry, my ATS data does not go back that far, but, they are 10–03 ATS as a host this season including conference wins vs. the Huskies, Cougars and Sun Devils by exactly 10 points, (2–1 ATS,) as well as a straight up dog win when hosting the Wildcats.

From the Foul Line

· Recent form has the Bruins at 05–11 ATS vs. teams with a straight up winning record.

· USC is 11–01 ATS when off a home win this season winning by an average score of 15+ PPG.

· UCLA is 0–7 ATS this season when the O/U is 160 or more.

· After three consecutive games as a favorite, the Trojans are 11–03 ATS under the guidance of head coach Enfield.

· Bruins’ head coach Alfred is 01–11 and -11.10-units vs. up tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game including 0–8 ATS this season.

· The Bruins are playing with revenge tonight as they lost straight up by 14 points, (89–75,) as a 3 point home favorite on January 13th, so I’m not betting the farm on this one. The Trojans are favored for the first time since January 29, 2005 vs. their cross town rivals. Their last four times when favored vs. UCLA the Trojans are 1–3 ATS with that lone win occurring in 2002 by a “hook.” I’ll lay the wood tonight as a small play and if this line dipped to –4 or lower that would get my attention for a little more.

UCLA at USC Pick

My Every Edge selection for this 10:30 ET tip on the PAC–12 Network is a recommendation on the USC Trojans at –5.5 or lower.

baylor

Margin of victory is this big, Dempson.

By Greg Dempson

The 17th ranked Baylor Bears who are 17–4 this season, including 6–2 in Conference play, host the Texas Longhorns who are 14–7 on the season, as well as 5–3 in Conference play. Tonight’s match-up is the second of a double header on ESPN with the tip slated for 9:00 ET.

Baylor leads the BIG–12 in rebounds at +9.9 while Texas is last at –0.3. Rico Gathers is averaging a Conference best with 10.5 rebounds and has seven double-doubles this season, (31) in his career. The team’s leading scorer is Taurean Prince who averages 15.0 PPG as well as 5.9 rebounds per contest. The Bears have four starters that scored double-digits per contest.

Pinnacle Sports: Texas +5 vs Baylor -5 Total 140.5

Texas has three starters that average double-digits per contest, Taylor, (15.5,) Ridley, (12.7) and Felix at (10.6.) Taylor also leads the Longhorns in rebounding at 10.0. After losing center Cameron Ridley on December 19 at Stanford, the Longhorns lost three out of four before recent form has them winning five of six.

From the Foul Line

· The Longhorns are 1–8 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or more of their attempts the last two seasons.

· Baylor has used the same starting lineup of Prince, Gathers, Wainright, Medford and Al Freeman in every game this season. Medford leads the Big 12 in assists, (at 7.1) and steals (at 2 per game.) Medford had 9 points and 8 assists against Georgia as the Bears posted their 27th straight victory at home vs. an unranked opponent.

· The Longhorn played three games away from home this season when they were dogs of less than 6 points and went 0–3 ATS in those games.

· Under head coach Smart the Longhorns are 21–40 ATS and -23.0-units after two straight where the team gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds in all games he’s coached.

· Under head coach Drew, the Bears are 16–05 ATS and +10.5-units after three straight games where the team allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher.

· I believe Gathers and Matley win the battle on the boards plus the turnover “mistake free play” of point guard Medford has me laying the points.

Texas at Baylor Pick

My Every Edge play for this evening is on the Baylor Bears at –5 points or less.

maryland terrapins

By Greg Dempson

Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins

The #3 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes are 7–0 in league play, (winning six of those contests by double figures,) as well as sporting a 16–3 record this season. Tonight they’re in uncharted waters as they visit #8 Maryland for the first time at College Park with the tip set for 7:00 ET on ESPN.

The Terrapins enter tonight’s play off a 75–64 loss at Michigan State this past Saturday. It was exactly two Saturday’s ago that the Hawkeyes manhandled the Spartans on the road, (76–59,) for their second win vs. Michigan State as they previously dispatched of the Spartans on their home floor on December 29th.

Pinnacle Sports: Iowa +5.5 at Maryland -5.5 Total 147

Iowa is certainly the hotter of the two teams as they’ve also won 5 games vs. Top 25 teams this season and are on a 9 game winning streak for the first time since the 2005/2005 campaign. As for the Terrapins, (17–03 on the season,) all they have done at home is go 11–0 straight up and it must be noted that Maryland is 9–0 following a straight up loss. If Maryland can impose their interior play vs. Iowa they should come away with a win and cover.

Tip – Ins

· Iowa is 4–13 ATS after two straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots.

· Maryland is 57–33 ATS in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.

· After 15+ games, Iowa is 02–10 ATS versus good rebounding teams, out rebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

· After 15+ games, Maryland is 20–08 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams, outscoring their opponents by 12+ points per game.

· After 15+ games, Iowa’s head coach McCaffery is 09–23 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams, making 72% or more of their attempts.

· Maryland’s head coach Turgeon is 20–08 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams that make 41% or more of their attempts in all games he has coached.

· When we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, (up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots per game on the season,) when playing against an opponent after two straight games while allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less we are 82 – 43 = 66% ATS since 1997.

Iowa vs Maryland Pick

My Every Edge Game of the Night is on the Maryland Terrapins at –4 points or lower.

xavier

Am I seeing this right Greg Dempson?

By Greg Dempson

Xavier vs Providence

The last time the Providence Friars were in the American Press poll for nine consecutive weeks was way back in the 1977–1978 season. With signature victories vs. #18 Butler at home, (71–68,) and an even more impressive win vs.

Villanova on the road last week, (82–76,) as a 12.5 point dog. When playing away from home this season Xavier is 7–1 straight up with that lone loss by 31 points at Villanova, (95–64,) so Providence is certainly capable of winning this game straight up.

Pinnacle Sports: Xavier -1.5 vs Providence +1.5 Total 148

So, tonight it’s #8 Xavier vs. #10 Providence with the tip slated for 8:30 ET on Fox Sports 1. This will be the first time the Friars have been in the top 10 and hosting an opponent that is also in the top 10 in the history of the Dunkin’ Donuts Center.

Tip – Ins

· Utilizing three sets of power ratings I make this line favoring the host team at –2.5.

· When comparing strength of schedule the edge goes to the Friars.

· The Friars won their last two at home vs. the Minutemen, (69–66) and (81–72.)

· Providence is 18–09 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams, forcing 14 or less turnovers per game the last two seasons.

· The Friars are on a 7–2 ATS run vs. the Big East.

· Coach Cooley has been able to keep his team focused following an upset underdog win as the Friars are 17–06 ATS in this spot.

· From game 16 out coach Cooley is11–02 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams, out rebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

Xavier vs Providence Pick

My Every Edge College Game of the Night is on the Providence Friars at +1 or pick ’em.