By Greg Dempson
UT-Arlington at Georgia State (game #570 @ 2:30 ET)
On January 21 the UT-Arlington Mavericks lost their leading scorer Kevin Hervey. In their next contest, without Hervey, the Mavericks were defeated at home laying 3.5, (68–62.) The Mavericks followed that home loss by dropped three consecutive road match-ups, –3 @ UL–Monroe, (99–88,) followed by a loss at LA–Lafayette, (90–75,) as a 6 point road dog and in their last game, on Thursday, the Mavs dropped another game, (82–73,) at Georgia State when laying 4.5 points.
I believe the lines maker has not made the proper adjustment with Hervey being out. On December 30 the Mavericks hosted the Panthers as 5 point home favorites and won with ease, (85–70,) with Hervey scoring 17. In the 17 games he played with the Mavs, before being injured, he averaged just over 17 PPG, (290 points.)
· The Mavericks are ranked #280 in offensive field goal percentage shooting 41.6% while attempting 66.0 shots per game. Their shooting percentages include 70.2% from the free throw line and 33.0% from beyond the arc this season.
· The Panther are ranked #172 in offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.6% while attempting 51.1 shots per game. The Panthers shooting percentages include 70.2% from the free throw line and 34.1% from beyond the arc this season.
· UT–Arlington is 1–4 straight up vs. Georgia State the past three seasons.
· Georgia State is 10–01 straight up at home this season.
· Georgia State is 26–11 ATS and +13.90-units in home games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.
· Play on all teams that average 63–67 PPG when the line is +3 or –3 points, (applies to Geo. State,) when playing against an average defensive team that allows 67–74 PPG after 15+ games and after a combined score of 115 points or less. When playing on Geo. State this system is 67–30 = 69% ATS the past five seasons as well as 40–13 or 75.47% ATS the past three seasons.
UT-Arlington at Georgia State Pick
My Every Edge game for today is on Georgia State at –1.
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