Let me give you a pinch on your hip…ahhh
By Greg Dempson
UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans
At this juncture of the season, the majority of contests remaining on all the teams’ schedule involves conference games. Those early season “rent-a-victim” foes the power teams hosted are indeed rare. There is the occasional exception, one of which was extremely rare as last Saturday there where a non neutral site contest that involved elite teams. Two perennial powerhouse schools played when Kentucky traveled to Kansas, lost in overtime, with the Jayhawks not only winning but covering ATS. It was an entertaining game from a purists point of view!
That’s what I love about College hoops vs. NCAA Football, because when it comes to College football, we’ll probably never see Ohio State play Alabama in each teams’ 10th game of the season, (even at a neutral site.) Alabama’s argument would be the Tide has to run the gauntlet of the SEC teams while Ohio State has a few teams on their schedule that might present problems for their program. If you’re going to lose a game, do so early rather than later in the season.
Okay, so I’m off my topic as this is hoops selection and NCAA football is still 200+ days away. In a coup de gras vs. Alabama, Clemson, USC, Ole Miss and Auburn and the also ran teams, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh signed the anointed number #1 prospect for 2016, Rashan Gary. One signing does not a team make, but it is an interesting beginning for a Wolverines program that been on the down side for quite some time.
Pinnacle Sports: UCLA +5.5 vs USC -5.5 Total 160.5
The Bruins have had their way with the Trojans, (it’s safe to say,) because this cross-town rivalry has been one sided of late as UCLA has been on the right side of the ledger in 8 of their 10 previous games, (home or away.) In seven of those contests UCLA was favored by more than 9 points.
Picked by many to fail miserably this season the last time the Trojans had a 13–0 straight up home record was in 1943. Sorry, my ATS data does not go back that far, but, they are 10–03 ATS as a host this season including conference wins vs. the Huskies, Cougars and Sun Devils by exactly 10 points, (2–1 ATS,) as well as a straight up dog win when hosting the Wildcats.
From the Foul Line
· Recent form has the Bruins at 05–11 ATS vs. teams with a straight up winning record.
· USC is 11–01 ATS when off a home win this season winning by an average score of 15+ PPG.
· UCLA is 0–7 ATS this season when the O/U is 160 or more.
· After three consecutive games as a favorite, the Trojans are 11–03 ATS under the guidance of head coach Enfield.
· Bruins’ head coach Alfred is 01–11 and -11.10-units vs. up tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game including 0–8 ATS this season.
· The Bruins are playing with revenge tonight as they lost straight up by 14 points, (89–75,) as a 3 point home favorite on January 13th, so I’m not betting the farm on this one. The Trojans are favored for the first time since January 29, 2005 vs. their cross town rivals. Their last four times when favored vs. UCLA the Trojans are 1–3 ATS with that lone win occurring in 2002 by a “hook.” I’ll lay the wood tonight as a small play and if this line dipped to –4 or lower that would get my attention for a little more.
UCLA at USC Pick
My Every Edge selection for this 10:30 ET tip on the PAC–12 Network is a recommendation on the USC Trojans at –5.5 or lower.