Betting strategys - BC Cup

[Finishfast]

The problem that I always have on Breeders Cup day is betting. Generally, I do ok overall but I never win much or lose much. I guess that's good but .......
Last year I tried $1 - 5 horse exacta boxes ($20) and I did great in nabbin' the 1st and 3rd place horses on almost every race. Exciting - yes! Profitable - no!
My bankroll is $200 for the day. I'll mix in some WPS betting along the way. Any thoughts?

[SeattleSlew]

I would consider not wagering on exacta boxes in every race, or at least not using 5 horses..

You have to remember that exacta boxes count as a multiple wager. No matter how many horses you box, only one scenario can happen (unless its a dead-heat, and in that case they split the return anyway).....So that means when you hit one of the scenarios in your 5-horse exacta box, 1 wager has cashed, but 19 others have lost (that slowly catches up with you)....I know you know that, but a lot of people don't think about it that way.

If you continue betting that many horses in a box, you need to make sure of something - that your odds support it (nothing worse than cashing a $30 ($1) exacta from a 5-horse exacta box.....yeah, it's a win, but you've got a lot of bets to cover in other races if this is a longer approach)..

If you are betting $1 exactas, it seems to me there are better options out there for you..

1. QUINELLAS;
You might think about quinellas.....a percentage of the time they return better odds than $1 exactas (a lot of bettors don't pay attention to the pools quinellas offer, therefore the value is sometimes untapped), and you get the outcome two different ways - just like a box - for the same $1 price....(I don't usually bet them myself, but if I bet $1 exacta boxes I would seriously consider it).

2. OVERLAYS;
There is nothing worse than wasting a long shot or an overlay in a big box where your odds are dilluted. It sounds to me like you can pick winners, so if you can uncover a couple of overlays at fair odds your best bet would be to bet them over 5-6 horses for about half the price ($10-$12), or move to $2 exactas ($20), or use a quinella (overlays over 5 horses and reverse for the same $20 price).

Do yourself a favor and use a few whacko longshots underneath on BC day. Most people concentrate on the 25/1 - 40/1 boxcar overlay on BC day, and while those horses win their share, they more often run SECOND......good enough to outrun their big odds but not quite good enough to win the big event.

The better you articulate your wager (overlays), the less you spend on bulky exacta boxes, OR the more horses you allow yourself underneath - and free room to use big long shots underneath, which is something a lot of people feel timid doing when they are limited to an exacta box.

Hope that helped a little..

Good luck.

SLEW

[Finishfast]

Slew, thanks for the reply. I like your quinella idea and Arlington does offer it.
I prefer quinella wagering to exacta anyway.

Thanks for the analysis on the cost/profit payouts. I see your point because on a $30 wagering I'm hoping to get 2-1 on the payout - to probably get a $150 exacta and the half will pay $75 (payout for a $1 exacta). There will definately be better ways (less risk) to get 2-1 payouts thruout the day.

Just wondering, what types of wagering will you be doing?

BTW, I live in Glendale, AZ.

[SeattleSlew]

Glendale is the fastest growing area in Phoenix....only been here a year, and I can still notice a difference..

My strategy will really depend on the race....I will probably be keying a few 12/1 - 40/1 longshots in the place slot on Saturday. I think the opportunity will be in the exactas, and dare I say trifectas (only an exacta bettor, though)..

SLEW