fatl
October 25th, 2002, 06:23 PM
I already adjusted for the offtrack
BC Picks:
Distaff
=======
8 Take Charge Lady-Been getting better with each rate, last race was impressive, should love to see the speed duel ahead of her early
4 Azeri- She has the talent, but has never left Cali and has beat up on very weak fields, should get hammered hard by Imperial Gesture early, won't be able to hang on
3 Farda Amiga- Slow times make her a bit overrated, layoff off a layoff is worriedsome, but she should be able to make ahead of Summer Colony
Juvie Fillies
=============
6 Ruby's Reception- Excellent breeding, should like the longer
distance, was flying late out in the hurricane last time in Keeneland, but with the alternate finish in use that day, ran out of time, the extra 1 1/2 furlongs in stretch today will be perfect for her.
3 Composure- Training very well (too well?), by Touch Gold (Belmont winner) so distance shouldn't be a problem, no reason why she won't be around late
4 Storm Flag Flying- She's good, no doubt, but 4-5, never on a 2 yr old. Plus I've never been a fan of Storm Cat's, and first time around 2 turns brings up more questions, try and beat her is the play.
Mile
====
4 Good Journey- All the previous runnings of the Atto Mile had been close, but he won with relative ease that day, hasn't done anything wrong this year, getting better with each race, Day will ensure he'll be close and this horse knows how to finish the job.
2 Beat Hollow- Moves way up with the wet turf
10 Rock Of Gibraltar- He might needed it a little firmer
Sprint
======
10 Orientate- Shut up all the doubters last out when he went through a quick early fraction and still won with relative ease, in 10 sprints, he, 7-2-0 so he's had this talent all the time, outside post shouldn't hurt and Bailey is smart enough decide to go with Xtra Heat or sit back with Queenie/Overboard
11 Crafty C.T.- Been slowly getting better off the Met Mile layoff, 90 day 2 prep spot which is very dangerous (see Tiznow), training very well and is coming up to a big effort, but will it be good enough?
2 Kalookan Queen- Actually, the ALL button is the choice here, but if I had to choose one for show, she gets it, will be off the pace, but might be a bit too far back and could get trapped on the rail.
Filly/Mare Turf
===============
2 Islington- As long as it doesn't rain overnight in Chicago, she's got a great shot, have been close throughout the year except when it rained. Ran a great race last out, kept Marienbard, Sulamani and HC off for 1/4 mile late and didn't go down without a fight, the cut back to 10F will make her ever more dangerous
9 Chopinina- She won't be going 44.4 today, she's bred to run all day so if she can go 48-49 and Kazzia does bounce like I expect her to, she could be by herself at the top of the lane...until Islington gets her at the 1/8th pole and GA gets her at the line. She very dangerous and can't leave out on the bottom of the exotics.
6 Golden Apples- I question her ability to handle the wet turf, I had to move her down a bit.
Juvie
=====
13 Wando [LONGSHOT OF THE DAY]- Okay, I might be a bit prejudice with him being a canuck, but he did run a great race last out, best closing fraction of all the Juvie prep winners, has been improving with the additional distance, sire was second in last year's Juvie Fillies (Imperial Gesture), the lasix helped him find another gear and Migliore will ensure he's gets as close to the rail as possible in the 150 yd run to the first turn.
2 Kafwain- 2nd fastest closing time of the Juvie Prep winners, not a high distance timeform, but Runaway Groom is the GrandSire so that should have enough influence to help the nautral ability of the horse. With all the attention on Baffert's others, he might go unnoticed on the tote board and be a juicy price.
1 Whywhywhy- whywhywhy..lol, sorry couldn't resist...I don't like
anybody else, I know he's pushing his breeding, did run on very well last out on a day with many distractions (lighting, heavy rain and wind), showed a good deal of maturity.
Turf
====
4 Golan [BEST BET OF THE DAY]- I've read the reports on him having troubles training, but I'm still very confident in him, his timeforms are just as good, but he gets the edge in being fresh. Been a much better horse this year, and there is no reason why he won't be in the picture late, went toe-to-toe with Nayef who is no slouch so he'll be tough to outkick.
5 High Charparral- He should have won the Arc, he was in prime position with clear room late, but took forever to get past Islington and couldn't hold off the top 2, now he ships over the ocean off that effort facing a fresh horse, he'll probably come up empty late, but with the American group so weak, he should grab second.
1 Denon- Best of the rest, but could finish 5-7 lengths back of top 2.
Classic
=======
8 Evening Attire- So what has he done wrong this year, other than getting hampered on a speed bias track against E Dubai, not much, impressive turn of foot to blow by Lido late last time and with a hot speed duel expected early, he's should be able to close, and unlike others, he's proven to get the job done. [Late Edition: With the off track, he moves way up too!]
7 Medaglia D'Oro- So Bailey, do you risk getting caught out early but being on the pace, or do you change running styles and tuck in behind with Home and Attire? This horse has the talent to do it, don't know where it was during the TC, but he Frankel will make sure he's ready today...but he his my pick for the 2003 Breeders Cup Classic right now (if he stays healthy).
12 Milwaukee Brew- A great horse, who always wishes he had 30 more yards in a race, same story today, will be flying late down the center of the race track but won't get there in time again.
BC Picks:
Distaff
=======
8 Take Charge Lady-Been getting better with each rate, last race was impressive, should love to see the speed duel ahead of her early
4 Azeri- She has the talent, but has never left Cali and has beat up on very weak fields, should get hammered hard by Imperial Gesture early, won't be able to hang on
3 Farda Amiga- Slow times make her a bit overrated, layoff off a layoff is worriedsome, but she should be able to make ahead of Summer Colony
Juvie Fillies
=============
6 Ruby's Reception- Excellent breeding, should like the longer
distance, was flying late out in the hurricane last time in Keeneland, but with the alternate finish in use that day, ran out of time, the extra 1 1/2 furlongs in stretch today will be perfect for her.
3 Composure- Training very well (too well?), by Touch Gold (Belmont winner) so distance shouldn't be a problem, no reason why she won't be around late
4 Storm Flag Flying- She's good, no doubt, but 4-5, never on a 2 yr old. Plus I've never been a fan of Storm Cat's, and first time around 2 turns brings up more questions, try and beat her is the play.
Mile
====
4 Good Journey- All the previous runnings of the Atto Mile had been close, but he won with relative ease that day, hasn't done anything wrong this year, getting better with each race, Day will ensure he'll be close and this horse knows how to finish the job.
2 Beat Hollow- Moves way up with the wet turf
10 Rock Of Gibraltar- He might needed it a little firmer
Sprint
======
10 Orientate- Shut up all the doubters last out when he went through a quick early fraction and still won with relative ease, in 10 sprints, he, 7-2-0 so he's had this talent all the time, outside post shouldn't hurt and Bailey is smart enough decide to go with Xtra Heat or sit back with Queenie/Overboard
11 Crafty C.T.- Been slowly getting better off the Met Mile layoff, 90 day 2 prep spot which is very dangerous (see Tiznow), training very well and is coming up to a big effort, but will it be good enough?
2 Kalookan Queen- Actually, the ALL button is the choice here, but if I had to choose one for show, she gets it, will be off the pace, but might be a bit too far back and could get trapped on the rail.
Filly/Mare Turf
===============
2 Islington- As long as it doesn't rain overnight in Chicago, she's got a great shot, have been close throughout the year except when it rained. Ran a great race last out, kept Marienbard, Sulamani and HC off for 1/4 mile late and didn't go down without a fight, the cut back to 10F will make her ever more dangerous
9 Chopinina- She won't be going 44.4 today, she's bred to run all day so if she can go 48-49 and Kazzia does bounce like I expect her to, she could be by herself at the top of the lane...until Islington gets her at the 1/8th pole and GA gets her at the line. She very dangerous and can't leave out on the bottom of the exotics.
6 Golden Apples- I question her ability to handle the wet turf, I had to move her down a bit.
Juvie
=====
13 Wando [LONGSHOT OF THE DAY]- Okay, I might be a bit prejudice with him being a canuck, but he did run a great race last out, best closing fraction of all the Juvie prep winners, has been improving with the additional distance, sire was second in last year's Juvie Fillies (Imperial Gesture), the lasix helped him find another gear and Migliore will ensure he's gets as close to the rail as possible in the 150 yd run to the first turn.
2 Kafwain- 2nd fastest closing time of the Juvie Prep winners, not a high distance timeform, but Runaway Groom is the GrandSire so that should have enough influence to help the nautral ability of the horse. With all the attention on Baffert's others, he might go unnoticed on the tote board and be a juicy price.
1 Whywhywhy- whywhywhy..lol, sorry couldn't resist...I don't like
anybody else, I know he's pushing his breeding, did run on very well last out on a day with many distractions (lighting, heavy rain and wind), showed a good deal of maturity.
Turf
====
4 Golan [BEST BET OF THE DAY]- I've read the reports on him having troubles training, but I'm still very confident in him, his timeforms are just as good, but he gets the edge in being fresh. Been a much better horse this year, and there is no reason why he won't be in the picture late, went toe-to-toe with Nayef who is no slouch so he'll be tough to outkick.
5 High Charparral- He should have won the Arc, he was in prime position with clear room late, but took forever to get past Islington and couldn't hold off the top 2, now he ships over the ocean off that effort facing a fresh horse, he'll probably come up empty late, but with the American group so weak, he should grab second.
1 Denon- Best of the rest, but could finish 5-7 lengths back of top 2.
Classic
=======
8 Evening Attire- So what has he done wrong this year, other than getting hampered on a speed bias track against E Dubai, not much, impressive turn of foot to blow by Lido late last time and with a hot speed duel expected early, he's should be able to close, and unlike others, he's proven to get the job done. [Late Edition: With the off track, he moves way up too!]
7 Medaglia D'Oro- So Bailey, do you risk getting caught out early but being on the pace, or do you change running styles and tuck in behind with Home and Attire? This horse has the talent to do it, don't know where it was during the TC, but he Frankel will make sure he's ready today...but he his my pick for the 2003 Breeders Cup Classic right now (if he stays healthy).
12 Milwaukee Brew- A great horse, who always wishes he had 30 more yards in a race, same story today, will be flying late down the center of the race track but won't get there in time again.