barryt
March 12th, 2004, 09:20 AM
HERE ARE THE POST POSN AND RUNNING STYLES FOR AQU FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.
THIS DAMN EDITOR IS LOUSY. i HAVE ATTACHED A FILE "Aqu maintrack mar 04" a simple Notepad file that looks much better than this. Hope this helps .
Sorry couldnot attach as file too big[ only 1024 bytes allowd]
gl
barryt
What To Look For: On the main track at 6f the inside speed is often as formful as it is on the inner track. In the one turn 7f races you will undoubtedly see more closers than at 6f. The one turn one mile races come out of a chute (as do the 7f races) and are often referred to as "long sprints". The horses go a bit more than half a mile before hitting the turn and the outside runners have the time and distance to seek position for the drive. Horses who try to wire the field and get run down late may seem to be beaten by closers when they are in reality backing up into a steady plodder. Be sure to check the late splits when this happens so you won't be fooled into thinking that you have just uncovered a late running super horse.
Main Track Route Races: The mile and 70 yard and the mile and a sixteenth races are history. Both distances would have to start on the clubhouse turn. The bread and butter race is the mile and an eighth jaunt but there's some room here before getting to the first turn and the turn allows outside runners to use some speed without being fanned out of contention. This distance has played well to runners with early foot although closers are never out of it. The longer route races play fairly so you'll have to track the speed and track bias on a daily basis.
Here are the post position /running style records for the past 2 years on AQU main track.
A/E means Actual to expected where expected means "fair share"
Efficiency analyzes A/E for the that post and the 2 adjacent posts.
eg post 1 has a/e of 1.03 but post 2 has a/e of .91 so the efficiency of post 1 is reduced to 1.00 when the performance of post 2 is considered[ I don't know the exact formula]. Similarily the efficiecy of post 2 is raised by the better a/e of post 1 and post 3.
6 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar0
# Winners in Each
----------- - Exp A/E --- ---Winning Pace Style---
P #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 44 343 12.83 12.51 1.03 1.00 11 8 7 6 12
2 39 343 11.37 12.51 0.91 0.97 9 6 11 4 9
3 45 343 13.12 12.51 1.05 0.97 19 4 12 5 5
4 38 343 11.08 12.51 0.89 0.99 9 8 10 3 8
5 47 336 13.99 12.38 1.13 1.03 16 4 17 2 8
6 38 318 11.95 12.12 0.99 1.05 5 7 16 4 6
7 34 265 12.83 11.49 1.12 1.13 6 7 13 3 5
8 26 190 13.68 10.67 1.28 1.35 6 5 6 6 3
9 20 119 16.81 9.81 1.71 1.40 4 4 7 3 2
10 6 73 8.22 9.14 0.90 1.09 0 1 3 2 0
11 3 42 7.14 8.59 0.83 1.10 1 0 1 0 1
12 3 20 15.00 8.10 1.85 1.13 0 1 1 0 1
--------------------------- -------- 25% 16% 30% 11% 17%
6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 3 29 10.34 13.06 0.79 0.86 0 1 1 1 0
2 4 29 13.79 13.06 1.06 1.06 1 0 2 1 0
3 5 29 17.24 13.06 1.32 0.99 2 1 1 1 0
4 1 29 3.45 13.06 0.26 0.53 0 1 0 0 0
5 1 28 3.57 12.84 0.28 0.57 0 1 0 0 0
6 5 27 18.52 12.68 1.46 1.25 3 0 0 0 2
7 5 23 21.74 12.17 1.79 1.96 2 0 2 0 1
8 4 13 30.77 10.92 2.82 1.85 0 0 2 0 2
9 0 6 0.00 9.52 0.00 0.70 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0
12 1 3 33.33 8.33 4.00 2.00 0 0 0 1 0
27% 13% 27% 13% 17%
7 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 25 191 13.09 12.81 1.02 1.01 10 4 7 0 4
2 24 191 12.57 12.81 0.98 0.98 6 4 9 2 3
3 23 191 12.04 12.81 0.94 0.99 10 0 6 1 6
4 27 191 14.14 12.81 1.10 1.09 10 2 3 2 10
5 29 188 15.43 12.71 1.21 1.11 7 4 7 1 10
6 19 170 11.18 12.24 0.91 1.02 3 1 11 0 4
7 17 139 12.23 11.55 1.06 1.01 1 2 8 2 4
8 11 100 11.00 10.75 1.02 0.96 3 2 3 0 3
9 5 69 7.25 10.12 0.72 1.19 1 1 2 0 1
10 8 37 21.62 9.39 2.30 1.65 4 2 0 0 2
11 2 18 11.11 8.82 1.26 1.82 0 0 1 0 1
12 1 5 20.00 8.20 2.44 1.53 0 1 0 0 0
28% 12% 29% 4% 25%
1 Mile Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 34 272 12.50 13.03 0.96 0.96 11 5 8 3 7
2 34 272 12.50 13.03 0.96 0.92 12 9 7 3 3
3 29 272 10.66 13.03 0.82 0.94 7 7 10 1 4
4 41 272 15.07 13.03 1.16 1.11 11 10 11 4 5
5 45 268 16.79 12.93 1.30 1.21 7 13 13 3 9
6 35 253 13.83 12.67 1.09 1.14 6 11 10 2 6
7 24 191 12.57 11.75 1.07 0.98 3 7 8 1 5
8 9 124 7.26 10.73 0.68 0.88 2 4 2 1 0
9 8 75 10.67 9.82 1.09 1.04 1 1 5 1 0
10 6 49 12.24 9.25 1.32 1.44 1 1 1 0 3
11 5 28 17.86 8.75 2.04 1.90 1 1 2 0 1
12 2 11 18.18 8.27 2.20 1.61 0 0 2 0 0
22% 25% 29% 6% 15%
1 1/8 Miles Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 17 141 12.06 13.70 0.88 0.94 9 2 2 0 4
2 22 141 15.60 13.70 1.14 1.05 8 6 3 1 4
3 20 141 14.18 13.70 1.04 1.02 7 4 3 0 6
4 17 141 12.06 13.70 0.88 1.08 4 2 6 0 5
5 29 140 20.71 13.66 1.52 1.23 8 4 7 1 9
6 16 121 13.22 13.01 1.02 1.16 4 4 4 0 4
7 12 90 13.33 12.10 1.10 1.08 3 2 3 1 3
8 7 58 12.07 11.15 1.08 0.91 1 0 4 0 2
9 1 28 3.57 10.00 0.36 0.45 1 0 0 0 0
10 0 16 0.00 9.30 0.00 0.09 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 9 0.00 8.82 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
31% 17% 22% 2% 26%
THIS DAMN EDITOR IS LOUSY. i HAVE ATTACHED A FILE "Aqu maintrack mar 04" a simple Notepad file that looks much better than this. Hope this helps .
Sorry couldnot attach as file too big[ only 1024 bytes allowd]
gl
barryt
What To Look For: On the main track at 6f the inside speed is often as formful as it is on the inner track. In the one turn 7f races you will undoubtedly see more closers than at 6f. The one turn one mile races come out of a chute (as do the 7f races) and are often referred to as "long sprints". The horses go a bit more than half a mile before hitting the turn and the outside runners have the time and distance to seek position for the drive. Horses who try to wire the field and get run down late may seem to be beaten by closers when they are in reality backing up into a steady plodder. Be sure to check the late splits when this happens so you won't be fooled into thinking that you have just uncovered a late running super horse.
Main Track Route Races: The mile and 70 yard and the mile and a sixteenth races are history. Both distances would have to start on the clubhouse turn. The bread and butter race is the mile and an eighth jaunt but there's some room here before getting to the first turn and the turn allows outside runners to use some speed without being fanned out of contention. This distance has played well to runners with early foot although closers are never out of it. The longer route races play fairly so you'll have to track the speed and track bias on a daily basis.
Here are the post position /running style records for the past 2 years on AQU main track.
A/E means Actual to expected where expected means "fair share"
Efficiency analyzes A/E for the that post and the 2 adjacent posts.
eg post 1 has a/e of 1.03 but post 2 has a/e of .91 so the efficiency of post 1 is reduced to 1.00 when the performance of post 2 is considered[ I don't know the exact formula]. Similarily the efficiecy of post 2 is raised by the better a/e of post 1 and post 3.
6 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar0
# Winners in Each
----------- - Exp A/E --- ---Winning Pace Style---
P #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 44 343 12.83 12.51 1.03 1.00 11 8 7 6 12
2 39 343 11.37 12.51 0.91 0.97 9 6 11 4 9
3 45 343 13.12 12.51 1.05 0.97 19 4 12 5 5
4 38 343 11.08 12.51 0.89 0.99 9 8 10 3 8
5 47 336 13.99 12.38 1.13 1.03 16 4 17 2 8
6 38 318 11.95 12.12 0.99 1.05 5 7 16 4 6
7 34 265 12.83 11.49 1.12 1.13 6 7 13 3 5
8 26 190 13.68 10.67 1.28 1.35 6 5 6 6 3
9 20 119 16.81 9.81 1.71 1.40 4 4 7 3 2
10 6 73 8.22 9.14 0.90 1.09 0 1 3 2 0
11 3 42 7.14 8.59 0.83 1.10 1 0 1 0 1
12 3 20 15.00 8.10 1.85 1.13 0 1 1 0 1
--------------------------- -------- 25% 16% 30% 11% 17%
6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 3 29 10.34 13.06 0.79 0.86 0 1 1 1 0
2 4 29 13.79 13.06 1.06 1.06 1 0 2 1 0
3 5 29 17.24 13.06 1.32 0.99 2 1 1 1 0
4 1 29 3.45 13.06 0.26 0.53 0 1 0 0 0
5 1 28 3.57 12.84 0.28 0.57 0 1 0 0 0
6 5 27 18.52 12.68 1.46 1.25 3 0 0 0 2
7 5 23 21.74 12.17 1.79 1.96 2 0 2 0 1
8 4 13 30.77 10.92 2.82 1.85 0 0 2 0 2
9 0 6 0.00 9.52 0.00 0.70 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0
12 1 3 33.33 8.33 4.00 2.00 0 0 0 1 0
27% 13% 27% 13% 17%
7 Furlongs Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 25 191 13.09 12.81 1.02 1.01 10 4 7 0 4
2 24 191 12.57 12.81 0.98 0.98 6 4 9 2 3
3 23 191 12.04 12.81 0.94 0.99 10 0 6 1 6
4 27 191 14.14 12.81 1.10 1.09 10 2 3 2 10
5 29 188 15.43 12.71 1.21 1.11 7 4 7 1 10
6 19 170 11.18 12.24 0.91 1.02 3 1 11 0 4
7 17 139 12.23 11.55 1.06 1.01 1 2 8 2 4
8 11 100 11.00 10.75 1.02 0.96 3 2 3 0 3
9 5 69 7.25 10.12 0.72 1.19 1 1 2 0 1
10 8 37 21.62 9.39 2.30 1.65 4 2 0 0 2
11 2 18 11.11 8.82 1.26 1.82 0 0 1 0 1
12 1 5 20.00 8.20 2.44 1.53 0 1 0 0 0
28% 12% 29% 4% 25%
1 Mile Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 34 272 12.50 13.03 0.96 0.96 11 5 8 3 7
2 34 272 12.50 13.03 0.96 0.92 12 9 7 3 3
3 29 272 10.66 13.03 0.82 0.94 7 7 10 1 4
4 41 272 15.07 13.03 1.16 1.11 11 10 11 4 5
5 45 268 16.79 12.93 1.30 1.21 7 13 13 3 9
6 35 253 13.83 12.67 1.09 1.14 6 11 10 2 6
7 24 191 12.57 11.75 1.07 0.98 3 7 8 1 5
8 9 124 7.26 10.73 0.68 0.88 2 4 2 1 0
9 8 75 10.67 9.82 1.09 1.04 1 1 5 1 0
10 6 49 12.24 9.25 1.32 1.44 1 1 1 0 3
11 5 28 17.86 8.75 2.04 1.90 1 1 2 0 1
12 2 11 18.18 8.27 2.20 1.61 0 0 2 0 0
22% 25% 29% 6% 15%
1 1/8 Miles Dirt-AQU Post Position Report 13Mar01 to 11Mar04
# Winners in Each
Exp A/E ---Winning Pace Style---
PP #W #S Win% Win% Ratio Efficiency E EP P PS S
1 17 141 12.06 13.70 0.88 0.94 9 2 2 0 4
2 22 141 15.60 13.70 1.14 1.05 8 6 3 1 4
3 20 141 14.18 13.70 1.04 1.02 7 4 3 0 6
4 17 141 12.06 13.70 0.88 1.08 4 2 6 0 5
5 29 140 20.71 13.66 1.52 1.23 8 4 7 1 9
6 16 121 13.22 13.01 1.02 1.16 4 4 4 0 4
7 12 90 13.33 12.10 1.10 1.08 3 2 3 1 3
8 7 58 12.07 11.15 1.08 0.91 1 0 4 0 2
9 1 28 3.57 10.00 0.36 0.45 1 0 0 0 0
10 0 16 0.00 9.30 0.00 0.09 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 9 0.00 8.82 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 3 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
31% 17% 22% 2% 26%